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Crypto Derivatives Insights

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Satoshi&Co Daily Crypto Newsletter

July 25 · Issue #215 · View online
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Check out past issues of the newsletter along with more interesting crypto content as well as short (but great) conversations with leading crypto industry participants at our newly-launched website

While crypto options are still a growing space and not as robust as the futures and spot markets in terms of liquidity, option prices provide valuable insights into the overall market’s prediction of the future prices of cryptocurrencies. Based on the prices for Bitcoin options, the market is factoring in a probability of 20% that the price of Bitcoin will be above $15k (50% upside from current prices) and probability of 10% that the price will be above $20k (100% upside) by Dec 2019. 
For ETH, the market-determined probability that the price will be above $320 (50% upside) is in line with Bitcoin’s at 20% and the probability that the price will be above $440 (100% upside) is in line with Bitcoin’s as well at 10%. This seems a bit odd given that the ETH-BTC correlation since the beginning of last quarter has decreased meaningfully. 
The cost of liquidity, as measured by the bid-offer spread, has increased steadily since May, partly due to the fact that the bitcoin was on a bullish trajectory over the period, leading to increased demand for BTC purchases and a subsequent widening of the spreads. In fact, the bid-ask spread was the highest on June 27th (1.17% vs 0.5% avg), the day when BTC reached its highest level in 2019 at $14k.  As the price started to consolidate in the high 9k - low 10k range, bid-offer spreads are returning to their historical mean levels right now. 
Meanwhile in Crypto Wonderland....
“Digital Assets Data Raises $3.2 Million”
Cryptocurrency data and financial technology startup Digital Asset Data announced that it received $3.2 million in funding. Per the release, the round was led by investment firm North Island and tech-focused private equity group Silver Lake co-founder Glenn Hutchins. The new funds, added to its seed funding of $6 million covered by Cointelegraph in April, brings the total funding received by the startup to $9.2 million. The startup in question reportedly provides tools enabling asset managers and other market participants to analyze crypto assets, market, reference and customer data from a number of sources. The company claims that the platform that it launched in March helps their clients to compound knowledge about the digital asset marketplace.
“Venezuela Suspected Of Evading US Sanctions Using Crypto”
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his administration appear to be leveraging tax revenue and cryptocurrencies as part of a broader effort to evade economic sanctions, an investigation by Spanish newspaper ABC has found. As detailed in a story published Monday, the newspaper asserts it uncovered a scheme by which Maduro and his associates were using a digital wallet app to turn tax revenue from domestic airports into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that were then transferred to exchanges in Hong Kong, Hungary, Russia and China. There, the funds were converted and sent back to Venezuela, according to the report.
“Kraken Hires Former B2C2 Director”
Former managing Director of UK-based crypto exchange B2C2, Kevin Beardsley, has joined Kraken, one of the world’s longest-operating cryptocurrency platforms, to lead its futures business development. Formerly Crypto Facilities, Kraken Futures is a London-based financial services firm that provides FCA-regulated risk management and trading solutions for digital assets. Now operating as Kraken’s spot derivatives platform, the company was bought in a deal values it in the nine figure range. Kraken said the deal helped volumes double by $1 billion to $2.5 billion last month as the new arm enables its eligible clients to gain access to futures on six cryptocurrency pairs, providing a unique instrument to trade and hedge cryptocurrencies.
“New Jersey Resident Indicted For Running An Illegal Exchange”
The state of New Jersey has indicated a resident of Monmouth County for operating a Bitcoin exchange without obtaining any license. According to the official press release, the man is charged with one count of operating an unlicensed money transmitting business. If found guilty, he can face a maximum penalty of 25 years along with a fine of $250,000. The announcement detailed that William Green, a 46-year old man, was running a website called “Destination Bitcoin” and was accepting money for Bitcoin trading. As the platform had no authorization, Green received fiat from his clients and deposited them in the bank, which were maintained by him. He then converted the money into Bitcoin in accordance to his customer’s requests.
Crypto Twitter Pick
Preston Pysh
All Swiss Bonds are negative yielding.

I mean what could go wrong?

Here's my $100 Mr. Bank. I'll be back next year to collect my $95 dollars you "secured".
What We Are Reading / Listening To
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