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BTC price outlook

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Satoshi&Co Daily Crypto Newsletter

September 30 · Issue #237 · View online
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Check out past issues of the newsletter along with more interesting crypto content as well as short (but great) conversations with leading crypto industry participants at our newly-launched website

After last week’s sharp pullback, BTC seems to have found stability in the new $8000-$8500 range. With the price down by over 40% from the $14k registered in June, crypto investors are seemingly worried about a crypto winter redux. Bullish analysts on the other hand feel that the recent pullback is a transitory blip caused by the tepid volumes on Bakkt post launch and the possibility of miners selling physically-settled BTC futures on Bakkt to hedge their price risk.
JP Morgan’s analysis shows that the long position open interest has been consistently on a decline over the past two months, with BitMEX longs capitulating during last week’s flash crash. However, the net open interest on CME remains long for BTC futures. 
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
The upside case is clear - With mining reward halving event around 9 months away, there is optimism in the air that we can see a trend reversal happen in the next few months and expect BTC to set new yearly highs. However there could also be year-end tax loss harvesting related sales, especially as we head deeper into the final quarter of 2019. 
Source: Yassine Elmandjra
Source: Yassine Elmandjra
A look at previous trends shows that BTC’s recovery phase could last from a few days to more than 2 years, indicating that the current market recovery could well be a slow and steady process.  
Meanwhile in Crypto Wonderland....
“Binance To Launch A Crypto Staking Platform”
BitPay, the leading cryptocurrency payment provider, has made an announcement about completing the System and Organization Controls 2 (SOC2) examination, which was conducted by Atlanta-based accounting firm Aprio. Thus, BitPay becomes the first crypto company in its niche to reach this level of security compliance. This provides reassurance that the company adheres to the highest security standards. Back in January, Gemini became the first cryptocurrency exchange to achieve the same feat, which proved the Winklevoss twins’ determination to put security first. 
“Harbor Receives License From FINRA”
An asset manager wants to have a go at a bitcoin-options-based fund as major exchanges make crypto derivatives trading more accessible to investors. The Los Angeles-based Wave Financial has launched the Wave BTC Income & Growth Digital Fund, touting the fund to be the first crypto-derivatives-based yield fund on the market. After several months of due diligence, Tsai said Fidelity Digital Assets is now on board to provide custody for the fund. The idea is to capture part of a new market of yield products in the crypto space, building on creativity from traditional funds and the growth of the crypto derivatives platforms that underpin the technical aspects of these new funds.
“Animoca To Develop MotoGP Crypto Game”
Ripple continues its run of acquisitions, announcing an expansion into Iceland with its acqui-hire of crypto trading firm Algrim in a blog post on Sept. 30. The acquisition adds six engineers to Ripple’s ranks. This new team will play an integral role in its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) program. Per the announcement, Iceland will now serve as one of the company’s engineering hubs, joining London as another European base. Algrim has integrated more than 30 markets into its developing crypto trading platform over the past two years. It’s engineers bring more than a decade’s worth of experience to the Ripple team, according to the announcement.
“RSK Acquires A LatAm Social Network”
Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation plans to legalize Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to bring them out of their current legal ‘grey area.’ Currently, cryptocurrencies are not banned in the country but have no official status. The move is part of the country’s modernization efforts led by its new young president. One of the deputy ministers to be appointed to Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation recently confirmed that one of the agency’s top goals is to legalize cryptocurrencies. It also plans to move its state registries to a blockchain-based network.
Crypto Twitter Pick
Shreyas Chari
Its not trivial to build a risk and matching engine for derivatives as leverage is involved. Leverage depending on perspective is credit, hence risk management in derivatives requires very effective systems and technology to deliver the promise fairly
What We Are Reading / Listening To
Overnight Performance of Top 10 Currencies
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