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GoldFix: Metals Crashed Because (Spins Wheel)

Welcome. GoldFix is original content. The goal is to give you, the reader, some basis for looking at markets as you prepare your own trading day. Second, it aims to give you more tools, or at least the basis for developing your own tools to navigate markets. To that end we expect there will be changes based on feedback. Gold is the jumping off point for analysis.

GoldFix Daily Brief
Good Morning. The DX is slightly firmer. Bonds are slightly higher. Stocks are mixed but firmer. Gold is up some after yesterday’s sell spoof and bounce. Silver the same. Oil is up almost 2%. Bitcoin and Ethereum are flat. Alts like ADA are spiking
From Bank of America:
“At some stage the economy hits full employment and the normal late-cycle “stagflation” sets in with a less favorable mix of inflation and growth…. we think that late stage will likely show up some time next year in the US”
Here’s What Happened: We know what happened with Gold already. The explanations will be related to real rates rising. This is nonsense. It is narrative used to rationalize, or worse intimidate critical thought.
So gold crashed because of this move in real yields?
The US JOLTS report confirmed what was well known. The supply of jobs in the US exceeds demand for the first time since the pandemic struck. This should make the job easier on Fed stimulus removal, but it does not. While they can truly claim they have done what they needed to do, create jobs, the Fed is now caught up in social policy. Therefore leaving the stimulus doesn’t make people work, but removing it will likely take away the jobs available. Attention today turns to Q2 productivity and unit labor costs, which Fed Chair Powell cited at his recent press conference.
On Deck: After all the excitement from Friday’s jobs report, we get a look at the other side of the U.S. labor market this morning when the JOLTS job openings number for June is published at 10:00 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speak later.  BioNTech SE, Barrick Gold Corp., DISH Network Corp, and meme-stock favorite AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. are among the companies reporting results.
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Gold Technicals
The following are excerpts from Moor Analytics Technical Reports posted here with permission and not actionable out of full report context.
Upside: Get long above $1,754.0-4.6. If we break above here, or even just above $1,754.0 and back below, look for pressure to come in. Sell against $1,777.6 (-1.2 tics per/hour starting at 8:20am).
Gc Weekly
Gc Weekly
Downside: Get short below $1,714.3-10.0. Get short below $1,695.2-4.2. If we break below here and back above, look for short covering to come in. If we break below $1,677.9-73.3, or even just below $1,677.9 and back above, look for short covering.
Bitcoin Technical Excerpt
On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion below at $29,075-6,905 with a $28,800 low and bounced $17,720. I warned that holding the exhaustion area and settling back above the $30,205 low was an early warning the macro move down from the high was likely over.
  • The decent trade back above $30,810 (-5 per/hour) has brought in $15,710 of the short covering warned about above so far.
  • The decent trade above $41,590-605 projects this upward $4,200 minimum, $12,300 (+) maximum. We have attained $4,815.
  • If we break back below decently, look for pressure to come in. This will come in at $41,620-605 today.
Special Lecture: Pay For Orderflow Explained
Given the recent attention to RobinHood’s IPO and their questionable business model, we gave a full on explanation of how Pay for Orderflow works. The 2 hour lecture is a deep dive into the definition, practices, and real life experience in this practice from a 30 year veteran who lived it. The University quality lecture covers the evolution from the late 1990’s to today’s use. GoldFix subscribers can access it for a limited time using Access. Video Link HERE Passcode: 3Dyb$+=+
That’s it, Good Luck
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