The more we use our proven low-carbon solutions to cut emissions within the 2020s, the greater our chances of limiting warming to 1.5°C. The more we delay action, burn fossil fuels and destroy nature, the more brutal climate change will become.
It finds that the world has already used about four-fifths of the carbon budget that would give us a 50% chance of staying within 1.5°C, and makes clear that there is no more room for new fossil fuel developments. The use of unabated fossil fuels from existing and planned infrastructure alone would blow us past that temperature threshold, it warns.
We can find hope in the fact that low-carbon solutions such as renewable energy, batteries and energy efficiency work, and they are growing exponentially as their costs fall. But we need to act quickly if we want to capitalize on their potential, by mobilizing more businesses, investors, cities, regions and national governments in the race to a resilient zero-emissions future.
The cost of solar energy and lithium-ion batteries each tumbled by 85% between 2010 and 2019, while the cost of wind energy fell by 55%, according to the IPCC. Solar energy deployment grew more than 10-fold over that period, and electric vehicles more than 100-fold. Digital technologies such as sensors, the Internet of Things, robotics and artificial intelligence can increasingly support wider sustainable development, boosting energy efficiency and rural access to clean energy.
Work is already underway to drive transformations across the hardest-to-abate sectors. The UN-backed Race to Zero campaign’s
2030 Breakthroughs sets out pathways for halving emissions within this decade in over 30 major sectors, articulating what key actors must do and by when.
For example, the aviation sector needs to boost the share of sustainable aviation fuel to 10% by 2030 in order to reach 100% by 2050; the steel sector needs to have 20 operational zero-carbon commercial-scale facilities by 2030 in order to have fully net zero steel by 2050; and the amount of deployed green hydrogen needs to reach 25 GW prices below US$2/kg by 2026 in order to reach 500-800 million tonnes by 2050.
In addition,
Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda launched by the UK COP26 presidency creates a framework for countries and businesses to join up and strengthen their actions every year to make clean solutions the most affordable, accessible and attractive option in every sector by 2030.
The International Renewable Energy Agency’s new
World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C states that progress by 2030 depends on political will, well-targeted investments, and a mix of technologies, with policies to put them in place and optimize their economic and social impact. Similarly, the
International Energy Agency’s roadmap for net zero emissions by 2050 made clear that the transition requires a massive deployment of all available clean energy technologies within the 2020s.
The Race to Zero looks forward to working with the UN’s newly assembled
expert group on net-zero commitments from business, investors, cities and regions. This will bring added scrutiny to the field, building on the High-Level Champions’ work of monitoring the credibility of Race to Zero commitments and annually assembling a
group of experts to peer review the campaign’s criteria.
