Peter Diamandis in his book “Bold” writes about how technology progress through a predictable path on its way to having a pervasive impact across at scale across the globe. Understanding this path provides and opportunity to look ahead where things are going and build solutions and make decisions assuming the future situation rather than only what is available in the here and now. This model underpins Diamandis’s hypothesis that in real terms human metrics are getting better and they can be expected to continue to improve as access costs continue to reduce in real terms to global stakeholders.
“The Six Ds are a chain reaction of technological progression, a road map of rapid development that always leads to enormous upheaval and opportunity.”
–Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Bold
The secret to positively impacting the lives of millions of people is understanding and internalizing the growth cycle of digital technologies. Singularity Hub
- Digitalization: Once something goes from physical to digital, it gains the ability to grow exponentially.
- Deception: Initial exponential growth is such small increases (.01 to .02) that it goes largely unnoticed.
- Disruption: Either a new market is created, or an old one is overturned. You either disrupt yourself, or you are disrupted.
- Demonetization: The major assets in the industry will become free. Free music, free reading, free communication.
- Dematerialization: Removal of the original product entirely, lumping alarm clocks, cameras, notebooks, and phones into one smartphone.
- Democratization: The costs drop so low that the technology becomes available to everyone.
Further to understanding the growth of technology is the Gartner Hype Cycle, which also highlights the predictable path a new technology takes to reaching widespread use and acceptance.