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Steve Harmon - Ouch! Crypto Tumbles But Here's The Long View

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Ripple gets ripped but my outlook is longer term than 2 months
 

Steve Harmon

February 2 · Issue #17 · View online
Beyond the hype, inside the world of venture capital, tech, stocks and trends, from Silicon Valley to Shanghai, from veteran investor and entrepreneur Steve Harmon - followed by many leaders in finance and tech, see more: http://steveharmon.com

Ripple gets ripped but my outlook is longer term than 2 months

Crypto Gets Hit Hard, But...History Provides A Lesson
In the early days of the Web stock market I said Amazon could be the Wal Mart of the Web. Said another way, if you invested $1,000 in AMZN at IPO today it’s value is $831,366. Or, $10,000 invested is $8.3 million today. Time span? 20 years.
Ditto for Yahoo, eBay, Tencent and many others. Those who got in early and held on made the returns. Of course, some of the stocks went down. But, the winners handily beat the losers (i.e. one Amazon beats a dozen who went to nada).
It’s my theory that we’re undergoing a similar pattern here with crypto currencies/tokens/coins. It’s early in the industry right now, early in the sorting of winners and losers. Early in the application these companies are trying to implement.
We have two factors at play here: 1) speculators who don’t know an XRP from an ETH or XLM; and 2) those who understand what the companies do and the application of their coin/token.
Not Everyone Can Handle The Rollercoaster Ride
If you would have invested in AMZN back in 1997 you would have been in for a bumpy ride as even Amazon made mistakes as a company. At several junctures you could have said AMZN was done, that the upside was capped. I sold my AMZN at one of those points…and wish I had kept it! Lesson learned.
Fact is it is risky to invest in crypto, just as it was risky to invest in the early Internet. Crypto is nascent. Many of these companies are pipe dreams. But others aren’t.
As I said back in November if you cannot afford to lose it then don’t invest. The flip side is if you cannot afford to miss the upside then think about this new field.
Since 1994 I have researched, evaluated and reviewed thousands of companies in tech. My meter for finding what I think are the better companies and prospects is tuned up. I am not always right but more than not.
My research into the more than 1300 crypto out there shows a HANDFUL to be interesting to me at a quality level. I own TWO of them.
XRP (Ripple)
XLM (Steller Lumens)
Notably, both were started by the guy who started Ripple. Both aim at making banking digital and cross border, better, cheaper and faster. The other crypto I think may have legs is ETH. I like ETH but the value is ahead of itself for my taste.
As for Bitcoin I’m not sure. Scale, speed and electricity consumption seem to be limiting factors. I only mention it because it is the best known.
In crypto there may probably be several dozen winners as time goes on. Winners in terms of the company’s ability to build a SUBSTANTIAL business.
Please Financial TV No More Unqualified Opinions
It’s always funny when a person from another industry is asked what they think of tech or crypto investing and they say “stay away!” 
Recently both Warren Buffett and George Soros, both investing gurus IN THEIR RESPECTIVE industries, were asked on financial TV if they would invest in crypto. Both said no.
Well, if you look at both of these guys they invest in OLD industries. They both missed the entire technology industry investment opportunity: Mainframes, workstations, PC, software, Internet. Maybe they’ve heard of what they missed? Just some little startups called:
Apple
Microsoft
Amazon
Facebook
Google
This list can go on to more than 100 big winners in tech. But you get the picture. They know nada about tech. Ironically, Buffett plays bridge with Bill Gates but still isn’t a tech investor.
So why do the major financial cable networks ask these guys their opinion on tech investing? Makes zero sense but gets headlines. What these two guys are qualified to speak about BY EXPERIENCE is investing in what they’ve invested in: insurance, soda companies, currency trading, newspapers.
It's Bigger Than South Korea, India, (Fill In The Blank)
Another amusing point is when a nation gets blamed for crypto tumbling. Headlines say “South Korea May Ban Crypto…India May Ban Crypto…” 
Whether they do or not to me may be inconsequential. China put tons of restrictions on the Internet two decades ago…didn’t seem to stop China from being the world’s largest Internet using nation with about 1 billion users today. Or companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and many more from being valued in the hundreds of billions.
Anyway, that’s my crypto update.
Let’s switch gears to something I mentioned few months ago.
A Google-Less World?
Project X is underway. A few months ago I mentioned here a new venture to basically make today’s digital world operate like today vs. a 20-year old business model based on long lists of search returns. In other words, the model is broken and yet we live with it because of a lack of alternatives.
Project X puts the control of your data, purchases, search and life (and more) back in your hands 100%. Wanna be part? Let us know your interest: investors (accredited only), advisers, developers, marketers, partners, cheerleaders.
We think we can get to 1 million users within 6 months of launch and then go from there. Send me an email: steve @ steveharmon.com – 

saludos y un abrazo! (yes, I am learning Spanish)
-steve
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