Newsletter predictions 2020

Although it’s in vogue to say we’ve reached peak newsletter, I believe 2020 will see far more newsletters launch, many of which will go on to be successful brands. While newsletters like Stratechery by Ben Thompson and Sinocism by Bill Bishop have seen growth for years, it seems 2019 was when the conversation really started around the solo-newsletter business. The not-so-secret secret to all of these new newsletters is that they will all be niche. And many of them will be paid. As media in the center of the barbell continues to tighten, we’ll see additional reporters take the first entrepreneurial step and launch. They’ll be successful specifically because the newsletter is the only way they can engage with their audience. At the same time, we’ll see open rates on many mainstream publisher’s newsletters remain weak because they’re treated as an afterthought. 2020 is the year of dozens of additional niche, expert-led solo newsletters. We’ve reached peak bad newsletter, but for newsletter writers that provide value to their audience, there can never be a real peak. Real value begets audience and monetization opportunities. 

My projections are two-fold: One, I think we’ll see much more growth in seeing unique reported content on newsletters. Up until now there’s been a lot of curated and aggregated content but with the dawn of Substack/Revue, I think more people will be taking the plunge with creating high-quality reported work strictly for the newsletter audience. Two, I think that there is still a lot of momentum behind the hyperlocal newsletter journalism initiatives. I’m talking 6AM City, Whereby.us (The New Tropic, The Evergrey, Pulptown). I think these community-oriented projects are really helpful in restoring faith in journalism at the local level.

In 2020, newsletters will strengthen local communities. With print dead and social media fake, editorial teams will discover the power of email, which can deliver trustworthy news right to the readers’ inbox, avoiding algorithmic barriers. More than just another revenue stream, newsletters will become relevant for local newspapers in building and strengthening the diverse communities they serve. The audience will be addressed directly, on a more personal level than via Facebook posts or Op-Eds. The readers will hear from journalists they know and trust. Journalists will ask, not only local politicians, but also their audience. And, importantly, they will learn to listen. This newfound interaction will build trust in news and in local politics and strengthen democratic engagement.

In 2020, as more and more newsletter authors will try to monetize their writing, the lines will blur between membership sites and newsletters. Many newsletters will start having a paid community component as a way to increase engagement and generate recurring revenue. The reason I think this will happen is because to a certain extent many writers have started doing this with Patreon, Telegram, or Slack communities. But there are now more tools to create membership websites or add commenting abilities to newsletters e.g. Revue and Substack.

I expect more newsletter builders will begin to integrate sponsorship functionality into their platforms in 2020. As more newsletter creators move to monetize, I think these tools will recognize the opportunity to enable these transactions and empower their users. A successfully sponsored newsletter is less likely to collapse and churn. Plus they may be able to take a piece of that new revenue stream.

As our tumultuous media landscape unfolds into the future, I am continually reminded of a science experiment I did in a university biology class. In the experiment there were two petri dishes, each containing two different kinds of bacteria. In one petri dish, we applied a substantial amount of nutrient-dense agar solution; in the other, an unsubstantial amount. Then we covered the dishes and let them grow for a week. At the end of the week, the one that lacked a substantial amount of resources was glowing; the other not. Why? Because if resources were plentiful, the two types of bacteria could coexist peacefully. But as soon as the resources dropped below levels needed for survival, one type of bacteria which was slightly better at obtaining nutrients did ok while the other type starved, letting out a glowing distress signal as it slowly died. In the present world of online media, distress signals are everywhere as resource scarcity is harming journalists in favor of the clickbait-driven entertainment media organism. I predict that in 2020, newsletter subscription services will continue to facilitate alternate pipelines of resources for journalists so that they can continue to do journalism instead of spending their working energy hunting for more resources, or just dying.

2020’s the year publishers finally focus on onboarding their new readers. An Iterable report earlier this year examined the email programs of 30 leading publishers, and found that 70% of them sent no onboarding series — not even a welcome email! Next year, expect to see more publishers invest in these series to help build a relationship with their readers, establish trust, and turn those readers into paying subscribers, members, donors, or fans.

I think 2020 will be the year where people will finally start to see content monetization differently and people viewing content in a new light. Similar to the earlier years of the app store, people have historically viewed content as something inherently free. Why? Because there is so much of it and more importantly, it’s not a medium they’re accustomed to paying for. Remember the days when we shied away from paying 99c for an app? Eventually, we grew tired of the incessant ads and bad experience, and came around to trading things of high quality for money. I believe the same will happen for content and 2020 will be a pivot point in that evolution.