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PFN Table for 6: Najee Harris, Taylor Heinicke, Alex Collins, and others

Fantasy 365
Written by PFN Fantasy Director BJ Rudell, the PFN Table for 6 fantasy newsletter comes to you every Sunday and Tuesday at 6 AM ET with exclusive content and advice you won’t find anywhere else. 

Week 12 Sportsbook Promos
Before we dive into Table for 6, check out our special sportsbook promos that are being offered through Pro Football Network.
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Table for 6: Sunday, November 28
Welcome back to Table for 6: Pro Football Network’s rundown of six players we are closely tracking today. Six players whose values could pop or plummet before the sun goes down. Six players who could make or break your fantasy team if you manage your roster to maximize the probabilities.
There are 12 games remaining in Week 12. Here are six players I’m watching intently.
Guest of Honor
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
There are countless factors for assessing a player’s current fantasy value. Each factor leads us closer to answering the all-important question: “What is his most likely future production?”
When it comes to Najee Harris, all I keep hearing about is his greatness. He’s the expert-consensus RB6 this week. Among the 173 worldwide experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, none rank him worse than 11th. No one questions what he’s done. And on the one hand, why should they? He’s notched at least 16.8 fantasy points in every game since Week 2. 
That’s an insane clip, especially for a rookie.
I analyze players for hours every day, week after week, identifying moments when managers should consider zigging instead of zagging – when conventional wisdom deserves to be challenged.
Heading into his Week 12 matchup in Cincinnati, Harris is at a largely unreported crossroads. Past fantasy production doesn’t align with on-the-field play. He’s benefited from an abundance of outliers. He is at a greater risk for regression than people realize.
Yes, his 7 touchdowns and 4.9 receptions per game are very impressive. But he’s averaged 3.5 YPC in six of 10 games, including four of his last five. He’s down to four targets per game in his previous four contests. He’s 37th among RBs in yards before contact (1.9), meaning defenses are continually getting to him early. He’s 32nd among RBs in yards after contact (1.8), meaning that he’s a below-average starter on this critically important metric.
Additionally, he’s coming off a robust 294-touch senior season at the University of Alabama – the second-highest total in Division I college football last year. 
He’s on pace for a whopping 403 touches this season. And he appears to be slowing in games, averaging 3.9 YPC in the first half and only 3.4 YPC in the second half.
If he doesn’t score today, will he do enough to be an RB2? It’s a serious question backed by concerning inefficiency on the ground. As great as he’s been for fantasy managers, the law of averages has a way of leveling things.
Harris remains a must-start because of volume, including receptions. But defenses are locking down on him, and the odds of him sustaining RB1 production are declining.
(Table for 6 continues below)
Tune in: Fantasy Podcast
NFL Week 12 Start/Sit: Myles Gaskin, Miles Sanders, Laviska Shenault
The In The Mood crew is back with another fantasy football podcast episode for your Week 12 start/sit and the latest QB, WR, RB, and TE injury reports. They go over multiple games and injuries and how they impact your fantasy rosters in Week 12. Which players are your go-to in order for you to dominate your week?!
Tune in on your favorite podcast platform, including Apple and Spotify
(Table for 6 continued from above)
Other Guests
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington Football Team
Heinicke’s preseason average draft position was QB52. No joke: Tony Romo was one spot ahead of him. Apparently, there are a lot of Romo fans out there. It took a Week 1 injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick to thrust the 28-year-old Heinicke into a nearly impossible position.  
Admittedly, I didn’t take him seriously as a fantasy waiver add. He’d thrown only 77 passes in his NFL career, connecting on two scores and three interceptions. Most of his work (53 pass attempts) came in one start three years ago against Atlanta. 
He didn’t look NFL ready. And yet, entering this week, Heinicke is the QB15. He’s racked up 20+ fantasy points in five of nine starts. Starting him is no longer an act of desperation; it’s a savvy play based on current realities. If Heinicke shines against a beatable Seahawks defense on Monday night, he could realistically enter next week as the QB12 or QB11.
Alex Collins, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Collins’ limitations are clear. He’s bounced around the NFL for six seasons, occasionally flashing yet rarely earning consistent top-20 production. He doesn’t do much in the passing game (57 career catches, including only 7 this year).  
So what’s different about him this week? 
Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and Travis Homer are all out. Only DeeJay Dallas stands in the way of a potentially big Collins night. That’s not to say he’ll produce; Washington is yielding only 4.1 YPC and 8 rushing touchdowns.  But Collins’ value going forward could hinge on what he does tomorrow. 
Essentially, this marks his best opportunity to lock down a bell-cow role for the remainder of this season.
Kenny Golladay, WR, New York Giants
With Sterling Shepard out today and Kadarius Toney doubtful, will Golladay finally begin earning his huge offseason payday? Not that it’s been Golladay’s fault. He missed time this summer and during the season with injuries. Daniel Jones has regressed.  
This is a team in turmoil: loaded with talent on paper but unable to execute on the field. 
Golladay’s talent is unquestioned. He should be a top-20 WR today. But he’s received only eight targets in his last three games – a bizarre stat considering what he brings to the table.  
With the 3-7 Giants almost mathematically eliminated from the postseason, it will be interesting to see how they utilize their most prized offseason acquisition. I’m betting on a good day. If I’m wrong, it probably won’t get better until 2022, at the earliest.
Laviska Shenault, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
I like betting on underutilized talent when their teams are struggling. Because more often than not, talent wins in the end. 
With Jamal Agnew injured, Shenault should be featured more prominently than he has been. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown a TD pass in any of his last three games. The Jaguars are facing an anemic Falcons pass defense yielding an average 106.2 QB rating.  
Shenault’s ranking assumes 7-8 fantasy points. I believe he’ll get more attention and crack the top 30 WRs. Like Golladay, Shenault has been woefully under-targeted. If things break right, he could be one of the most under-the-radar streamers for the stretch run.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos
There are many “what-ifs” to consider at the TE position, particularly when we move beyond the elite and near-elite tiers when targets grow more scarce.  
The Broncos are loaded on offense with two high-performing running backs, three high-functioning wideouts, and two highly capable tight ends. Oh, and one QB2 who’s not expected (or not able) to consistently feed most of his weapons. 
The ascending Albert Okwuegbunam (10 targets in his last three games) is one of many factors capping Noah Fant’s ceiling. I believe Fant has peaked this season, especially as Courtland Sutton gets more involved after three consecutive down games.
Get fantasy ready for Week 12
Fantasy Football News and Analysis
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