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PFN Table for 6: AJ Dillon, Justin Fields, Jeff Wilson, and others

Fantasy 365
Written by PFN Fantasy Director BJ Rudell, the PFN Table for 6 fantasy newsletter comes to you every Sunday and Tuesday at 6 AM ET with exclusive content and advice you won’t find anywhere else. 

Welcome back to Table for 6: Pro Football Network’s rundown of six players we are closely tracking today. Six players whose values could pop or plummet before the sun goes down. Six players who could make or break your fantasy team if you manage your roster to maximize the probabilities.
There are 14 more games to play in Week 11. Here are six players I’m watching intently today.
Guest of Honor
A.J. Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Earlier this week, in the aftermath of Aaron Jones’s knee injury, Dillon joined us as a guest at Table for 6. Today he’s the guest of honor. While his stay atop Green Bay’s RB depth chart is expected to be brief, I like examining “what-ifs” when talent meets opportunity.
No sensible fantasy manager would suggest Jones is at risk of losing his job. He’s been a top-6 fantasy RB for three straight years. He’s a versatile bell cow with a knack for finding the end zone. The Packers have leaned on him since he separated himself from Jamaal Williams in 2018. Yes, Jones is as safe a bet in fantasy as most RBs.
But here’s the thing: a case could be made that Dillon is better. My colleague, PFN Fantasy Analyst Tommy Garrett, said it best in his article on Tuesday:
“In games where Dillon has seen 10 or more opportunities (seven of 21 active games), he has averaged 14.3 carries for 69.1 yards and 0.6 TDs, plus 1.7 receptions for 25.1 receiving yards. In every one of those games, Jones was also on the field.”
Dillon’s average fantasy output in those seven games was 15.4 points. Jones is averaging 16.1 points – including games where he earned nearly all of the backfield touches. Dillon has been better at breaking tackles, averaging one per 10.8 rush attempts (versus one per 24.6 rush attempts for Jones). That’s an incredible disparity. Dillon is also averaging more yards after contact (2.4) than Jones is (2.1). 
And according to Next Gen Stats, Dillon has faced 8+ defenders in the box on 23.7% of his carries. Jones has confronted stacked boxes only 14.6% of the time — one of the lowest percentages in the league.
Today, all fantasy eyes should be on Dillon. He’s facing the third-worst run defense (Minnesota) based on yards per carry (4.7). If he falls flat, then perhaps I’m wrong, at least this season: Dillon’s not ready to be the lead back. But if he shines, it will provide more evidence that Dillon is a backup in name only. 
Green Bay didn’t draft him in the second round last year to ride the pine. He finally has the opportunity. Let’s see if he capitalizes.(Table for 6 continues below)
PFN Fantasy Podcast
NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Which Players Are You Looking To Avoid Playing?
Week 11 Sportsbook Promos
(Table for 6 continued from above)
Other Guests
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
Is Fields primed for a QB1 second half of the season? Or will he continue to experience rookie-year growing pains? 
Many fantasy managers have struggled to secure reliable QB1 production. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson have been hurt. Aaron Rodgers has underwhelmed. Before last week’s blow-up, Patrick Mahomes had been a QB2/3 for three straight weeks. And historically reliable streamers like Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan have faded into fantasy oblivion. 
Fields has been a lottery ticket for some of you since draft day. Like Lamar Jackson, he doesn’t need more than 1 touchdown to lock in 18+ fantasy points. If he can continue to build on his last two impressive games, he’ll quickly ascend to must-start territory.
Jeff Wilson, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco backfield carousel keeps spinning. Two years ago, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida each had 120+ carries, 500+ rushing yards, 20+ targets, and 120+ receiving yards. Last year was just as muddled, with four backs rotating starts. 
This year, Mostert gave way to rookie Trey Sermon, who lost the job to Elijah Mitchell, who now might lose it to the very talented Jeff Wilson. We’ve seen what Wilson can do. He dominated last season in two of three starts and fared well in the third. 
Fantasy managers rostering him, Mitchell, and even Trey Sermon (and in very deep leagues, JaMycal Hasty) should pay close attention to what happens today in Jacksonville, as it should impact the RB depth chart next weekend.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
Chicago’s No. 1 fantasy wideout is averaging 4 catches for 50 yards. By all accounts, he has been a victim of circumstance, with Justin Fields gradually acclimating to the NFL. With Fields now appearing poised to take another step forward, can we rely on Mooney as a fantasy streamer? 
He’s coming off his best game of the season – a 20.6-point effort against Pittsburgh. But he secured only four touches, as his impressive output was due to 2 touchdowns. 
With Allen Robinson scuffling and ailing, there’s an opening for Mooney, especially against a beatable Baltimore defense. There’s not much talent in this receiving corps. Mooney has a shot at fantasy legitimacy.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins remains out. In his place, Kirk has produced despite Kyler Murray’s absences. It’s a good sign for the fourth-year receiver – a former second-round draft pick who most fantasy managers gave up on this summer. 
His preseason ADP was WR74, one spot in front of Parris Campbell and well behind Gabriel Davis, Jalen Reagor, and Terrace Marshall. In fact, teammates AJ Green (WR69) and Rondale Moore (WR62) were valued ahead of him. 
There will be no rushing back Hopkins, whom this 8-2 team needs more for the postseason. I traded Kirk a few weeks ago for Michael Carter. My opponent and I each got someone we needed. But I think Kirk’s value continues to rise.
Geoff Swaim, TE, Tennessee Titans
Most fantasy managers can rattle off 6-8 fantasy TEs they trust all or most weeks. I can guarantee that Swaim is not on anyone’s list. But for logical reasons, he’s one of the most intriguing TE streamers out there. In Week 8, he was the TE7 with 12.3 fantasy points. He was the TE7 again in Week 9, this time with 12.9 points. 
Last year he regressed to the TE18, though his 4 receptions were tied for ninth among Week 10 tight ends. The volume is there. The depleted receiving corps helps. So does the sub-par backfield. Anytime the Titans are near the goal line, Swaim becomes a top-4 or top-5 option. That’s why I remain intrigued about him in deeper leagues, and that’s why I encourage managers to keep tabs on him today.
Get fantasy ready for Week 11
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