The Buffs overcame a dreadful start in the 29-52 loss against Oregon, and turned in their best offensive performance of the season. Unfortunately, without Nate Landman, the Buffs defense was not able to stop Oregon. This week it’s homecoming, and the Oregon State Beavers bring the Pac-12’s best running attack to Boulder.
Takeaways from CU-OU
Offensive line did excellent in pass blocking, seemingly responding to the change in the OL coach and tweaks to blocking schemes- OL allowed only 4 pressures and, 1 sack, 6 tackles for loss (TFL)
Stuck with 5 starters on OL played throughout for the first time all season
Scheme featured quick passes, screens and RPO resulted in much improved QB Time-to-Throw (TTT) 2.91 secs; and low average depth of target (ADOT) 4.2; effectively neutralized vaunted OR pass rush
On CU’s first scoring drive, 3 consecutive run pass option plays (RPO)
On CU’s second scoring drive, 3 consecutive screen plays
Buffs passed more often (57% of plays vs 45%)
Buffs running backs performed well, Fontenot, Broussard, Lewis all had good series
Oregon’s rush offense performed at 76.9% efficiency on successful plays
Oregon’s QB had his best passing performance (71% efficiency on successful designed passing plays).
Colorado (2-5) is a 10 point underdog against OSU (5-3) (+10) is the underdog.
OSU was upset last week at Cal
HC Jonathon Smith; elegant offense, great blocking schemes up front, excellent play calling
OSU strength is the Offensive Line, which returns five starters and power OSU’s powerful running attached (4th nationally yards per rush)
OSU’s Defense has had trouble getting off of the field on third down (rank 4th worst in nation).
Players to watch: Chris Nolan (QB) is dual threat; BJ Baylor (RB) leads Pac-12 in avg yards per carry; Trevon Bradford (WR), Tejon Lindsey (WR) are productive; Avery Roberts is leading Pac-12 tackler
By the numbers
FBS Power Rank - OSU 54 | CU 100
PowerRank Ensemble - OSU 40 | CU 99
PFF Overall - OSU 87 | CU 69.7
FBS RAnk Rank Offense - OSU 89 | CU 67 (OSU strongest rated offense in Pac-12)
FBS Rank, Yard Per Play Offense OSU 11 | CU 86
FBS Rank Yards Per Play allowed by Defense OSU 78 | CU 74 (CU has edge defensively, but this will likely be negated because Nate Landman, the Buffs leading tackler will be out)
Rank, Points/Drive OSU OSU 18 | CU 127
Rank, Yards Per Rush OSU 4 | CU 85
Pass Blocking OSU 56 | CU 47 (OSU weakness in pass blocking)
Pro Football Focus, Run Block rating OSU 84 | CU 62.1 (OSU best rated in Pac-12 by far)
FBS Rank Yards Per Pass allowed by Defense OSU 93 | CU 73 (Edge CU)
CU has the edge in Tackling OSU 52 | CU 60
Special Teams OSU 60.8 | CU 90 - CU has highest rated special teams in Pac-12)
Data sources: Pro Football Focus; College Football Edge; PowerRank; BuffStampede; Hythloday - addicted to quack
Keys for CU
Sustain pass protection and quick developing pass plays
Slow down powerful OSU running game with personnel and scheme
Need big plays on special teams (maybe ask Rice to return punts)
More big plays, take shots downfield, OSU does not have an elite pass rush; CU need more big plays
Design plays to get playmakers in space (especially Rice, also Shenault return’s) exploit OSU poor tackling
Improve 3rd down conversion rate
Parting Thoughts
OSU is a program that developed organically, coach Jonathon Smith has a good, stable staff. Lesson for the Buffs leadership and fan base is to trust the process.
Should be a nice day in Boulder, great for several commits and 23 prospects including four stars Larry Turner-Gordon four star athlete, Cole Martin, Brayden Dorman
Homecoming for CU and return of former Buff QB Sam Noyer.
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