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Oh what a night! Buffs upset OSU & seek to rinse & repeat against UCLA

Oh what a night! Buffs upset OSU & seek to rinse & repeat against UCLA
By TrevMon • Issue #13 • View online
“Oh what a night” in Folsom as the Buffs prevailed in a dramatic fashion to produce a double overtime 37-34 win over Oregon State. The Buffs trenches on both sides of the ball provided the platform to slow down OSU’s powerful running game, and to sustain drives. Listen to the podcast here.

Takeaways from CU-OSU game
Buffs showed resilience: Buffs responded to OSU taking lead 24-20 lead with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The following series, Buffs had a three and out, which gave OSU their best field position all night (42) yard line. Lo and behold, the Buff defense forced a 3 and out when they needed it. The ensuing drive, the Buff marched 73 yards, with explosive runs (49 yrds Broussard, 9 yrds Smith) to put Buffs in the red zone. After a holding penalty negated a Rice touchdown on second down, it left a third and 17. BLew stepped up in pocket to avoid pressure and found Montana for the go ahead touchdown. More drama would follow…
  • Buff were without leading tackler Nate Landman, yet still able to contain OSU’s running game to 221, down from their average of 230
  • Defensive line stepped up big to disrupt OSU’s run blocking schemes. Mustafa Johnson (74), Jalen Sami (76 ) made their presence felt and turned in the top 2 individual Pro Football Focus ratings for the game
  • Outside Linebackers shined, Carson Wells had a great game (1, sack, 5 pressures), so did back-up Joshka Gustav who had some pressures and made an incredible shoe-string third down stop when Buffs needed it most as part of the 3-out stop in 4th quarter before the go-ahead score.
  • Buff offense finally got off to a fast start
  • More sophisticated offense that featured multiple formations, blocking schemes, and creative play design. Matt Lynch finally took a snap behind center!
  • Offensive line continued their incredible turnaround, with great pass protection (no sacks), and opening running lanes which resulted in the season’s top run production game
  • Buffs rushing attached was on par with OSU (pac12 leader, 4th nation). Buffs were 42/222/5.0 avg. Led by Broussard 150 yrds; Compared to OSU 39/226/5.4
  • Brendon Lewis had a good day, passing 15-24, 3 TD, no picks). His time to throw was decent (3.19), especially considering the designed roll-outs which take longer than drop-backs. BLew also added rushing TD, and committed no turnovers.
  • Young players in the secondary stepping up (Trevor Woods, Kaylin Moore, Nikko Reed, Tyrin Taylor), and Trustin Oliver is getting in action on Special Teams.
Buffs were poised and refused to fold after the highly improbable series of events that led to OSU evening the score with a 60 yard field goal as time expired. Going into overtime, OSU had momentum, but the Buffs offense responded, and defense got a stop in the second overtime setting up Cole Becker for his first game winning field goal at the college level.
Analysis of UCLA Matchup
  • UCLA has strong rushing attack. Much like OSU, the OL is their strength. They use diverse blocking schemes, inside vs outside running, and creative formations, sometimes spreading tackles way out wide.
  • UCLA has high performing offensive line, (Sean Ryan T, Alec Anderson T, Paul Grattin (G), Antonio Mafi G) have above average pff scores.
  • UCLA has powerful running backs (#24 RB Charbonnet, #28 RB Brown) that gain yards after contact; QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson also running threat
  • DTR’s passing game is Jekyl and Hyde
  • UCLA’s tight end Greg Dulcich can be problematic
  • Pass coverage, UCLA corners have decent PFF ratings, but may be vulnerable in their man coverage and one-on-one matchups against Buffs
Select stats
  • UCLA is coming of a bye week and favored by 18 with 80.7% win probability (PowerRank)
  • FBS Power Ranking UCLA: 29 | CU 99
  • Points Per Drive Offense, FBS UCLA 18 | CU 121
  • Points Allowed Per Drive Defense, FBS, UCLA 90 | CU 83
  • Yards per play on Offense, FBS rank: UCLA:31 | CU:84
  • Yards per rush play offense, FBS Rank: UCLA:36 | CU:80
  • Yards per pass play on Offense FBS Rank UCLA:33 | CU:85
  • Yards given up per play Defense, FBS Rank UCLA:58 | CU:71
  • Yards given up per run Defense UCLA:19 | CU: 87
  • Yard per pass play Defense, FBS Rank UCLA: 75 | CU: 71
  • Rank Success Rate on Offense UCLA 43 | CU 101
  • Rank Success Rate on Defense UCLA 107 | CU 91
*Data sources: Pro Football Focus; College Football Edge; PowerRank; BuffStampede; Hythloday - addicted to quack
Keys to game for the Buffs
  • Exploit UCLA’s trouble defending screens, The Buff’s screen schemes are maturing and will be useful to get our Tight ends, wide-receivers and running backs in the passing game (see analysis by Hythloday at Addicted to Quack).
  • Exploit UCLA’s average cornerbacks in single coverage, Buffs have superior playmakers led by powerful duo of Rice and Shenault (Yogi Roth suggests they might be the best in Pac12), and supporting cast who can win 1-1 match-ups (Arias, Montana, Stanley, Penry)
  • Strong start like last year will provide insurance against strong UCLA offense. It will also make lackluster crowd in the Rose Bowl even less of a factor
  • Slow down UCLA’s running game with similar tactics that were used against OSU (but not too similar), e.g. aggressive and smart defensive front.
  • Special teams need to give Buffs great field position, Buff Special Teams is now graded best in the country by Pro Football Focus.
Parting Thoughts
  • Pivotal time in the next few weeks to set bigger things in motion, Lot’s of recruits had a great experience at Folsom in the OSU win. Meanwhile, several other programs in the Pac12 facing turmoil and coaching changes. Now is a good time for the Buffs to zig while others are zagging. I hope the Buffs can shine, one game at a time to keep bowl hopes alive, and set things in motion that will accelerate the Buffs development into a top tier program once again.
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By TrevMon

Notes on the University of Colorado Football Program

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