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COVID-19 Modelling

Hello friends, How did the UK make the decision to go into lockdown?On this week's podcast, I spoke t
COVID-19 Modelling
By Mustafa Sultan • Issue #6 • View online
Hello friends,
How did the UK make the decision to go into lockdown?
On this week’s podcast, I spoke to Dr James Hay — a computational epidemiologist at Harvard’s School of Public Health. We spoke about how Imperial and Oxford’s COVID-19 modelling works, and what its strengths and limitations are.
It will be interesting if you want a deep dive into epidemiological modelling. Some interesting points:
  • Imperial’s modelling works like a giant game of Sims. Every person in the country is represented in the model
  • The models actually have quite a lot of good data to work with
  • When reading cross-country comparisons, make sure you know how each country is defining a case/infection. Clinical findings? CT? Serology? Changes in definition can result in spikes in cases.
Available on Apple, Spotify and everywhere else.

‎Big Picture Medicine: Predicting the Future of COVID-19 Using Models — Dr James Hay Computational Epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health on Apple Podcasts
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) also released their own modelling. It’s very readable and echoes a lot of what Imperial have said. Some interesting points:
  • School closures have very little impact. In fact, they might result in elderly relatives spending more time caring for children. If a child has one more contact with an elderly relative a week (due to school closure) — it could entirely eliminate the benefit of closing schools.
  • The future of social distancing measures may be more effective on a regional not national basis. Nationwide ‘lockdowns’ mean that the interventions arrive too early in some counties, and too late in others. It will be interesting to see how this affects adherence if used.
  • There’s actually an ideal time to initiate a 'lockdown’ — and it’s not straight away. The first graph shows the impact of locking down straight away, the second after two weeks, then four weeks and then eight weeks (exact number of weeks are not known — these are just estimates)
Cases compared to lockdown straight away; after 2wks; 4wks and 8wks
Cases compared to lockdown straight away; after 2wks; 4wks and 8wks
An Interesting Study
Dr Daisy Fancourt
*** NEW COVID-19 STUDY ***

Recruiting adults in the UK to answer weekly 10-15min online surveys about their psychological & social experiences during Covid-19.

Results will help identify the effects of social isolation & how to support mental health.
All the best,
Did you enjoy this issue?
Mustafa Sultan

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