When the polls closed, the real story, I said online, more than the numbers coming in, is the number of people stubbornly still at the precincts, waiting to cast their votes, for whichever candidate. And the poll watchers being deployed even as the numbers add up.
As the numbers began to trickle in, I started to share my thoughts.
We should remember, even before 1st vote was cast, 10% minimum of all candidates already won. Consider the edge this gave, since every unopposed candidate actually represents a coalition of factions that colluded to enable an uncontested election, to those who sought them out: the Marcoses.
Tonight we found out which of 2 possibilities for 2022 ended up true: that is, whether, as all the reputable surveys said, the campaign was a no-contest since November 2021, or whether there would be a new way to estimate support, such as Google search results.
As the numbers started to come in, I Tweeted a reminder that it’s the percentage of the total that will matter. Every election has a bigger electorate. So the only way to compare mandates, is by the percentages obtained. Note the last unquestioned majority presidency we had, was 1965 for a 1st term and 1969 for 2nd.
My personal benchmark is when the total VOTES reaches 53,954,092 because that would represent 80% of 67.44 million registered voters: a reasonably high turnout considering everyone’s expectations turnout was high this time. Or: the moment a candidate GETS 26,977,046 which would be 50% of the voters.
The historical context for 1st term mandates:
1953 Ramon Magsaysay 68.90%
1935 Manuel L. Quezon 67.99%
1961 Diosdado Macapagal 55.05%
1946 Manuel Roxas 53.93%
1965 Ferdinand Marcos 51.94%
1949 Elpidio Quirino 50.93%
By 11 PM I was hearing fireworks in Mandaluyong. Before midnight, it was clear Ferdinand Marcos Jr. would surely obtain if not 26 million, then close to it. As it turned out (as of May 10 morning), Robredo regained at the end, what she had in 2016: 14.4 million; she reassembled the Center. But Marcos has created a new majority of the Old and New.
The verdict of the 2022 election is that it was signed, sealed, and delivered, when Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo brokered the Marcos-Duterte Coalition by convincing Sara Duterte to wait her turn. From November, 2021 the surveys read it and reported it as it turned out to be.
The thing though, isn’t that Leni Robredo may not even get as much as she did in 2016, or that her percentage may not match the 35.11% she got then. Wrong perspective: it’s the numbers from 2016-2022 that matter.
To my mind, her victory in 2016 was the dying gasp of the world of 1986-2016. After 2021 she alone came to head the center; and her numbers doubled in a year. What was born in 2022 is a new coalition: this has 30 years ahead of it.
A historic election is done: there is now a Marcos Restoration. This puts us in the tragic company of the French and others who vomited out dictators only to elect their heirs.