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Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer Newsletter - Issue #69

Manuel L. Quezon III
Manuel L. Quezon III
The question of surveys continues to puzzle people, primarily because of the suggestion that aside from opinion polling, there may be other ways to gauge the standing of candidates. The most recent polls, by Pulse Asia and Octa Research, both have Marcos maintaining a commanding lead.
On the other hand, the widely-noticed (and commented upon) lack of enthusiasm and verging on anemic attendance at the Marcos rallies, the delirious enthusiasm and respectable, even impressive, attendance at the Roredo rallies, not to mention recent endorsement by local government figures, makes the Marcos lead in the polls, somewhat counter-intuitive.
My column addresses this; this week’s #ProyektoPilipino on the other hand, discusses surveys from a civics perspective.

Grinder
Grinder
This week's The Long View
Seeing red | Inquirer Opinion
Additional Readings
First, a slide shared on Twitter by Wilson Chua, illustrating his over-all point that the surveys are a delayed snapshot of a dynamic trend that FaceBook and Google more quickly and accurately capture.
Second, an entry by Cebuano journalist Max Limpag on the technology of online sentiment as a predictor of electoral outcomes.
Third, an interesting entry putting the case forward for what Wilson Chua and others claim.
Fourth, a valuable observation by way of John Nery, on the apparent shared skepticism of Marcos and Robredo supporters when it comes to surveys.
Wilson Chua, Mar. 14, 2022
Wilson Chua, Mar. 14, 2022
Google searches “accurate predictors” of presidential election results, researchers say – Leon Kilat: The Tech Experiments
Pink Storm Rising
[Newsstand] Dynamic race, static survey?
#ProyektoPilipino Ep, 7: Survey says
Survey Says | Episode 7 | Proyekto Pilipino
Survey Says | Episode 7 | Proyekto Pilipino
“Ang survey ay isang snapshot ng panahon na nakalipas na at hindi para hulaan kung ano ang magiging kalalabasan ng halalan.”
Surveys and polls are hot topics during the election season, especially since they give people an idea who is seemingly leading or garnering the most support. But sometimes, we forget that surveys are not predictions of the future, but merely a snapshot of the past of a small sample of the population.
In this new episode of Proyekto Pilipino, Fr. Tito Caluag and his friendly trio of distinguished thinkers—Dr. Leloy Claudio, Manolo Quezon, and Carlo Santiago—talk to ABS-CBN Data Analytics Head Edson Guido and Political Science Professor Arjan Aguirre from the Ateneo de Manila University—to understand the role of surveys in the elections. How should we view and understand surveys? Are all surveys equal? Can surveys influence the outcome of the elections? We will try to answer these questions and more.
Watch it also on Sky Cable Channel Ch 955 HD, Ch 155 SD: Fridays, 7 p.m. | Saturdays and Sundays, 3 p.m.; and Jeepney TV: Sundays, 6 p.m. | Mondays, 6:30 a.m.
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Manuel L. Quezon III
Manuel L. Quezon III @mlq3

I'm a columnist for the Philippine Daily Inquirer; an Editor at large at Spot.ph; I write on history, politics and culture; and I write speeches and have worked in political communications; and I used to broadcast (which is where The Explainer comes from); I also set up and maintain the Philippine Diary Project; this is a newsletter to keep readers abreast of what I've written, am writing, and think about what's going on as well as a way to expand topics and conversations on all sorts of issues. Ideally, this will come thrice weekly:
1. Every Monday: Electoral-Merry-Go Round, on the Road to the 2022 Presidential Elections
2. Every Wednesday or Thurday: My column, "The Long View" along with additional material/thoughts on the topic.
3. Passion Project Weekends: reviews and recommendations books, movies, and other things; updates on The Philippine Diary Project and other things I find interesting. If my podcast comes out, this is when I'd promote it.

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