If you haven’t yet, read Alex Steffen’s piece that led last week’s newsletter, “Trump, Putin and the Pipelines to Nowhere.” It weaves together clean energy, the carbon bubble, and Russia’s singular reliance on oil, and provides one plausible explanation why Putin would take the risks he did to aid Trump.

Some of which are unverified, but there isn’t much mystery about what Trump’s energy policy will look. His cabinet picks share a deep affinity for oil and coal and a strong antipathy toward environmental regulation.

Which will probably affect renewable deployment in the US. To the degree Trump can roll back the Clean Power Plan, not having to comply with CO2 emissions standards could give coal a boost. But it might not: automation and fracking are killing coal, not regulation, and if the price of gas stays anywhere near its current historic lows, deregulation won’t change coal’s fate or even slow it down much. The invisible hand is doing the heavy lifting here. Fracking, renewables, and economics meant the CPP’s targets for 2025 were met in 2015–before the CPP even went into effect.

Infrastructure may be a different story, as Trump says he supports the Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines. Issues around Keystone are complicated, but despite conflicts of interest (expect to hear that phrase a lot more), Trump’s team, and North Dakota’s new governor, continues to say they’ll push for Dakota Access.

As Obama said of clean energy, the train has left the station, but how fast it goes is a lot less clear than we thought it was two months ago.