We’re not out of the doldrums yet, but the breeze is starting to pick up a bit, the sails are looking less limp, there are whitecaps on the water where there was nothing but a calm, mirror surface mere weeks ago.
November is looming. Always bountiful for crypto believers, and 2018 appears to be no exception. But let’s remain moderate in our prophecies, circumspect in our anticipation. Crypto is and always was a long game. Green candles are nice. Real, organic growth is nicer. True strength comes from resilience in the face of antagonism and obstacles, the willingness to stay the course. Crypto is doing that, inch by inch, mile by mile, year by year.
The FUD has been extraordinary this year. But it has not won the day. And the losses, while steep, have not reached their peak, which tells us that the curve of the slope has been lessened. We’ll likely not experience a loss as bad as 2013. We’ll likely not experience another high like 2017. The equations are being flattened.
The new normal will be boring, institutionalized, stable, regulated, and yet, even now, old norms are going the way of the dodo, and the mechanisms and means of crypto are here to stay. What that will do to the world of finance, shipping, agriculture, manufacturing, and of course, technology is, well–already it’s changing. Supply chains are running on custom blockchains. Identity verification and public trust mechanisms for new means of assessing risk. Blockchain. Sending millions, even billions of dollars across the world for pennies. Done. It’s happening. Right now.
It’s going to happen more, frequency increasing to a point where it will be odd to think of these things happening any other way. Ideally, most people won’t even know, they’ll just know things happen with less friction: money moves more quickly from bank to bank, goods verification happens automatically and you don’t need to worry whether the item you purchased on Amazon is counterfeit or real, and verifying who you are means less paperwork and more a matter of clicking a specially-coded button that transmits everything to be processed and verified along the chain. And the future will be boring, because crypto is maturing.
That’s a good thing.
I’ve been a little lax on writing the newsletter lately. My schedule has been a bit more intense and I’ve paid less attention to crypto for the past six months. Lean times, and all. When the wind isn’t at your back, it’s never fun or easy to keep going. But I also know that exciting times are ahead, and with it, the pace of news and renewed interest.
I will likely keep going with the newsletter, but I may pare it back to twice or thrice a month instead of once or twice every week. We’ll see how things go.