- Latest data shows economic growth hit across the globe
- In India, both manufacturing and services continue in contraction mode
- Some like Deepak Parekh expect sharp recovery; GST collections at 95% of the pre-COVID average
- Monsoons somewhat below normal in July, expected to be normal in August
- A quarter of returned migrants looking for job opportunities in rural areas
- Average bank balances in PMJDY accounts have increased, expected to fall till harvest season
- Government focused on eliminating DBT transaction failures
Each country is choosing its own strategy to combat the virus, but lockdown or no lockdown, economies worldwide
are spiralling downwards, as the pandemic refuses to show signs of an end. In July, India’s IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
contracted for the fourth straight month, while the Services PMI continued its contraction streak since March. Despite the negative growth estimated this year, some are optimistic of a sharp recovery – Deepak Parekh
points to factors such as lower unemployment rates compared to May peak, higher e-toll and e-way bill collections, GST collections back to Rs. 90,000 crore levels etc. Hope is pinned on rural India for bailing the economy out, as indicated by
good monsoon, higher tractor and seed sales, highest ever MGNREGA wages, higher MSPs and procurement, government stimulus etc.
However, even as positive datapoints are coming through from the rural economy, the pandemic is leaving a deep and long-lasting impact on the incomes of vulnerable segments. A collaborative study by Aga Khan Rural Support Programme India and others
showed that more than one-fourth migrants were still looking for work in their villages, and rural households are facing severe financial distress although the grain availability from the Public Distribution system had improved. Schemes announced by the government do take time to reach the beneficiaries, for example, while banks have sanctioned loans under the ECGLS to 39.67 lakh MSME accounts, just around 55% were disbursed as of August
3rd. A study by Dalberg
of government entitlements to low-income households, covering the period till early-June, shows up some of the challenges in delivery. PMJDY accounts
have now crossed 40 crore and Anand Raman has an excellent graph
on the average balance over time, clearly the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana has brought more into the banking system. However, while the initial rise in account balances was surprising, it is likely that average account balances will fall till the harvesting season begins.
The DBT Mission has been working diligently over the years to clean out the glitches in implementation of government pay-out schemes and Arun Sharma, Director, DBT Mission, Cabinet Secretariat,
has written an honest appraisal of the reasons behind transaction failures. What stands out is that the move towards perfection is driven by concern for the end-user, as he notes,
“Although transaction returns/ failures have reduced significantly over the years due to improvement in payments systems and monitoring, every payment failure is a concern as these payments are meant for the most vulnerable population.”
We can only hope that this concern drives each and every player in the transaction chain to remove their clogs asap and money released by the government reaches the intended beneficiary.
On July 23rd, in an Inclusive Finance India Webinar on “Sustaining the Informal Sector: Building their Financial and Economic Resilience
”, the following recommendations were made: the pandemic has shown the urgent need to focus on basic healthcare and education and our growth model has to be restructured to include these aspects, policy decisions should focus on rural areas to boost the economy, social security programmes should cover the urban poor too, the private sector should be allowed to deliver without regulatory capture, there are massive challenges that call for a proactive, light touch role for the state. (Moderator: Laveesh Bhandari, Indicus Foundation. Panelists: Ajit Pai, Niti Aayog; Shamika Ravi, Brookings India; D. Narendranath, Pradan; Anand Shrivastava, Intercorp Group).