Some probabilities are small but significant, like death by car accidents. For such rare occasions, we use a special metric. A micromort (MM)
is a one-in-a-million probability of death. Learn more
Regression to The Mean
The law of the averages or regression to the mean is a canonical law which states that most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.
pilot trainers observed that pilots that performed amazing
in their first training performed average
in their second training, and pilots that performed average
in their first training performed much better in their second training. This could be a classic example of regression to the means.
The same was also observed with companies. Those that showed high stock price rises in the initial years after an IPO had a more humble growth soon after — and vice versa (Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers
Interpreting p-values can be tricky. There are two approaches: the Fisher’s way and Neyman-Pearson’s way.
Neyman-Pearson [NP] said you pick a cutoff and use it. It’s less than the cutoff(say, 0.05) or it’s not. There’s no other information to convey. In NP, 0.08 and 0.97 are the same.
said you take the p-value and treat it as the level of evidence that there is an effect. <0.2 is some evidence, but it’s pretty weak; <0.1 is a bit better, but still kind of weak. <0.05 is what Fisher said is often good enough (but he also wrote that one should change one’s significance level according to the situation, which no one does). Source