"And, I have to say it. If my experience at Magnum is representative of other cattle farms, all those accounts of the dismal, depressing, disastrous cattle conditions seem to be exaggerated." https://t.co/VMUNhYzMkb
Thinking about this more, I've come to the conclusion this is a very strongly held belief in tech/startup culture, and a reason for many of it's quirks. That there's no conflict between self-interest & global optimum. https://t.co/K8cf7VepDc
This paper shows that folks who successfully predict a big unexpected hit (like a VC who backs a company no one else thinks will win & turns out to be right) are often just really bad at predictions, since the way they reached their extreme results came from bad data analysis! https://t.co/WS7OgVE6E0
11:38 AM - 25 Jun 2019
^ with limited downside and unlimited upside, being typically wrong results in being right in expectation. More practically: do stupid shit; epistemic rationality is overrated.
Ohio Amish raise a barn. An impressive work also in photography: 1600 pictures taken in 10 hours and compressed in 3 minutes and 30 seconds by photographer Scott Miller [full original video: https://t.co/VJtJMtHvzB] https://t.co/uRjAqqZxdC
If you write to me, and I do not respond, there's a chance I mistook your email for academic spam. There's also a high chance I saw your email (on my phone), thought about responding, forgot to actually respond, and then forgot that I didn't actually respond. Please email again. https://t.co/0rtzv5PATo
I worked on a book chapter for 2 months and deleted almost all of it. Feels like the writing equivalent of watching a suffering patient die. It's sad, but at least the suffering is over. RIP, illogical chapter.
5:31 AM - 28 Jun 2019
^ when I write, I frequently rewrite blog posts completely several times; many posts end up discarded completely after hours already spent on them
85% of my newsletter is trying to help my subscribers to learn something useful, to change how they think, and to motivate them to do something differently. 15% is fun. (just check the last issue to confirm!)