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The Latest Price (Non-) Action, Rebuilding the Industry and Incoming Regulations

The Latest Price (Non-) Action, Rebuilding the Industry and Incoming Regulations
By Decentrl.Agency • Issue #5 • View online

Market Watch
Our chart this week is drawn from data from Bitmex perpetual swap contract. This is because it is currently the highest volume (by far) traded BTC / USD pair.
After breaking $4,000 support, Bitcoin plunged again, finally finding ample liquidity in the low 3000s where many buy orders were filled. For most of the past two weeks, Bitcoin has consolidated on decreasing volume.
Following this sell off, bulls managed to push the price to a high of $4500 before slouching to the middle of the range. We now can clearly define this range between $3500 and $4500, similar to our previous range in the $6,000s.
In our last market watch, we cited the $4000-4500 block as a strong support based on volume traded in this range in 2017. Now that we have fallen below, it acts as a strong resistance.
A consolidation event following a strong move is more likely to result in a continuation than reversal. That means currently the bears are in control. However, if bulls muster a rally then we look to the range high for a break above $4500. From here, there is just one moderate resistance to take into account at $4800 before we see a large volume gap up towards $5400.
Looking to the downside, it is possible buyers step in between $3400-3500 as they did last week to hold this range low, similar to how we saw $6,000 hold time and time again. However, a resounding break below $3500 and we target the next two major supports at $2800 & 3000.

To investors looking for a signal in all the noise:
It is our opinion that Bitcoin is in the final stages of this bear market. We expect the price to range between an absolute low of $1800 to an absolute high of $6,200 (more likely, $3000-5400) for a substantial period of time. There is no reason to expect Bitcoin to rapidly enter a bull market from the bottom, it will take time. This time presents an incredible opportunity to begin to average into a position for the next bull cycle. There is no rush to buy all of your Bitcoin this very moment, but today IS a great time to begin accumulating Bitcoin as a long term investment. We look to mid 2019 and the 2020 halvening as a fundamental catalyst for further bullish momentum.
News
Crypto-assets have grabbed the attention of G20 leaders, prompting them to promise to regulate them. The joint-declaration titled “Building consensus for fair and sustainable development” contained the line, “We will regulate crypto-assets for anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism in line with FATF standards…”
With the recent addition of USDC, True USD, Paxos, and Gemini USD, Bifinex and Ethfinex are now listing of all six major USD-backed stablecoins, indicative of the changing stablecoin landscape. After years of Tether having a monopoly on the title “stablecoin”, several competitors with serious backing have popped up with their own technological and custodial innovations on the concept. All being listed and traded head-to-head on one of the largest exchanges in the industry helps to even the playing field for stablecoins. Now it’s up to the traders to decide on which they prefer.
According to individuals interviewed by Bloomberg, Nasdaq Inc. plans to list Bitcoin futures in Q1 2019. Nasdaq’s futures will be “…based off the Bitcoin’s price on numerous spot exchanges, as compiled by VanEck…” and won’t be the only new Bitcoin futures contracts, since ICE said it will be launching contracts of its own on Jan. 24th.
In what ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin called a “refocusing of priorities”, the giant blockchain venture studio of over 1,000 employees is signalling sweeping reforms via company-wide email. Layoffs are not ruled out as the company gets “more rigorous in terms of milestones and timetables… [and possibly] dissolving projects if we’ve come to the conclusion that our earlier assumptions were incorrect.”
During a live-streamed “fireside chat” at crypto-conference Consensus: Invest, U.S. SEC Chairman Jay Clayton said that in order for a cryptocurrency ETF to become closer to being approved, first it needs to be that “…trading in the commodity that underlies that ETF makes sense and is free from the risk of manipulation… It’s an issue that needs to be addressed before I would be comfortable [approving crypto ETFs].”
With Bitcoin’s recent hash rate decline, its mining difficulty has automatically adjusted sharply. Being the second largest drop in mining difficulty in Bitcoin’s history, it is suddenly significantly easier and more profitable to mine the leading cryptocurrency.
The Bitcoin community went into a short-lived frenzy as the long-dormant p2pfoundation account of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto ended its over four and a half year posting hiatus. The account posted simply “nour” and added user Wagner Tamanaha to his friends list. The activity has been widely chalked up to be a hack, but that didn’t stop massive attention and wild speculation on the community’s part.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) published a press release on their actions against two Iran-based individuals who helped exchange bitcoin ransom payments for foreign criminals associated with the “SamSam” ransomware scheme. The ransomware held over 200 known victims’ data hostage, pending the submission of digital currency. The OFAC published the offenders’ bitcoin addresses, which soon lead to individuals sending small amounts of bitcoin to those addresses seemingly as a joke.
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