Will the release of $3B Bitcoin from Mt. Gox be the end of Bitcoin?


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Over 137,000 BTC is soon expected to hit the market as Mt Gox is set to release funds to creditors that have been locked up for 7 years. This will have a devastating impact on the price of Bitcoin

While bulls have been trying to remain hopeful over this bear market, things are just getting started. Bitcoin worth $2.8 billion will soon be released into the market as funds lost to the Mt. Gox hack of 2011 and subsequent loss of 850,000 BTC worth around $17.8 billion at today’s price. In 2014 Mt. Gox reported that it had found 200,000 BTC, but those coins have been locked in litigation until now.
In November 2021, Mt. Gox released a formal “Rehabilitation Plan” to return lost funds to investors who lost access to their crypto some 7 years ago. Then, on July 6, 2022, Mt. Gox and “Rehabilitation Trustee” Nobauaki Kobayashi sent an email to creditors giving them the option to receive USD, BTC, or BCH. The news brings us closer than ever to funds finally being released to creditors which could be as early as August.
Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price?
As of now, there Is relatively little talk of this event. Right now, many Bitcoin investors are focused on the collapse of DeFi Lending scams, and Inflation to focus on the real black swan, Mt. Gox’s rehabilitation plan.
Once the 137K Bitcoin is returned back to investors, many of them will take a profit. After all, the last time they had access to their funds was when Bitcoin was worth less than $1000. A recent survey for Mt. Gox users shows a whopping 86% of them aren’t even involved with Crypto or Bitcoin anymore and have given up.
This idea that they will “hold” and carry on without selling is wishful thinking. Almost anyone in their situation would do the right thing and sell, especially after witnessing how Bitcoin is failing at all of its promises as an inflation hedge, payment method, and store of value.
Some investors on social media have even theorized that a drawdown in Bitcoin’s price could align with the Ethereum merge, leading to “The Flippening” being realized. The Flippening is a hypothetical event where Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin in market cap, and it could happen if Bitcoin dropped to $10,000, with Ethereum rising by 30% from its current price.
The Ethereum Merge is timed perfectly with Mt. Gox users dumping ~140k BTC (~$3 billion) in late August 2022.

The Flippening is upon us frens.
What if the Bitcoin is liquidated?
Some of the Bitcoin has already been sold before the upcoming release of Bitcoin. In 2018, 24,658 BTC (worth $260 million at the time) was sold by Kobayashi during a creditors’ meeting. The sale:
“was necessary and appropriate to procure a suitable amount
of money to secure the interests that the creditors for the principal amount and delay damages of the determined and undetermined bankruptcy claims.”
The liquidation marked the top of the 2017 bull run, as seen from the chart below. The price of Bitcoin fell following the decline in the number of Bitcoins held by Mt Gox, leading to the 2018 bear market from which it did not recover until late 2020.
Should the release of the remaining Mt Gox funds have a similar effect on the price of Bitcoin, it would likely drop below $10,000. This target is what I’ve been predicting for several months now, and I am more confident than ever that it will hit. However, this isn’t the only thing confirming this crash below 10K, even in recent months, there has been equal sell pressure on Bitcoin from parties such as Luna Foundation Guard, Three Arrows Capital, and Bitcoin miners.
LFG sold several billion dollars worth of Bitcoin, which had a negligible effect on Bitcoin as the market absorbed the selling pressure. The following weeks since the event did result in Bitcoin’s price decline due to a change in market belief and overall global outlook. The markets may well absorb any selling from Mt. Gox creditors, but the social sentiment of early Bitcoiners relinquishing their coins could create a bearish psychological sentiment.
For perspective, the total amount of Bitcoin that’s expected to be returned to Mt. Gox victims would be more Bitcoin than every single institution has combined. If the coins were in a single wallet, it would also be the 3rd largest Bitcoin wallet ever. Be careful maxis, you’re about to go bankrupt!
Thank you everyone for reading! I hope you’re all having an amazing day, and I can’t wait to write more contrarian content for you.
If anyone has any topics they’d like me to write about next, feel free to send me an email or message on Twitter.
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