Locally, an H4 close above $22,260 is enough confirmation for another leg higher towards $30,000 in my view. On the other hand, a daily close below the 20-daily EMA, or an intra-day sell off below $21,200 means the relief rally is over and ranging is back in play.
In all time-frames, prices tend to reach extreme points where the majority capitulates, only to reverse course and mark up later. Market makers using order-flow data sets tend to perpetuate such price moves. So there is a scenario where BTC/USD wicks to $21,200 and swiftly reverses.
All in all, until the 20-daily EMA is officially lost, the working logic is that of a trending market; whereby moving averages are more consequential than range-levels.
If lost, it’s worth noting that bitcoin is within macro-bottoming levels regardless. This favours low-time preference plays, and somewhat limits downside risk/reward in both the short and long term.