There is a world where Bitcoin/Dollar is no longer a barometer for the rest of the crypto market. For better of worse, I believe this is where crypto is heading next. Not only is market dilution of first principles taking place over time, but Bitcoin’s nature is inherently conservative and slow-moving by design. And as I’ve said before, money will accommodate the entire spectrum of human behaviour.
This is world where Bitcoin’s influence diminishes, and ebbs and flows over boom and bust cycles. We’d learn more with hindsight as the crypto market grows, but that’s my hunch.
In this world, stablecoins are the top players (essentially central banks), and exchanges, ALT/USD futures, bridges and AMMs are major (yet secondary) players. This landscape is characterised by fast, cerebral betting on ‘the next big thing’- i.e. names with the biggest marketing department, trendy and sexy ideas win, while others win less.
Given the dire macro context, this is probably an end-game scenario for many Fiat currencies too, after which consolidation occurs along with global economic shifts and a changing world order. Macro expert Lyn Alden
explains the major shift in what will be a new regime characterised by multiple ‘spheres of influence’ rather total US-hegemony, and I tend to agree.
In short, I do not believe we’ve seen the end of crypto euphoria. Incoming highly accommodative fiat on-ramps would create this ‘end-game’ boom-bust scenario, assuming calamitous events like energy supply issues in Europe are contained. Admittedly, this may be a big assumption given Europe’s disastrous, decrepit and utterly incompetent leadership.
But until Ethereum/Dollar begins to materially outperform Bitcoin/Dollar, the proxy reality will continue to reign supreme. In other words, a temporary regime change depends on ETH/BTC
. And if this does end up becoming another hype bubble, your job is to sell ETH into USD and BTC.
For the time being, Bitcoin weakness begets more crypto weakness. This is the regime until proven otherwise.