This issue will be mostly about bitcoin fundamentals, on- and off-chain. How are fundamentals developing? What is positive? What, maybe not so much? And more…
So let’s dive directly into the newsletter.
Bitcoin percent supply last active 1+ years ago around ATH levels
Realized losses on-chain substantial this cycle
Bitcoin Exchange Balances still trending lower (at levels last seen in July 2018
Hashrate trending higher since August
Real Trading Volume picking up a bit but still relatively low compared to bull market
Value transferred on-chain low, but some increase over last week
Address Count Exchange In- and Outflows low around bear market levels, but slow down in decline
Bitcoin Percent Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago
On the plus side for on-chain fundamentals is the supply last active 1+ years. Overall, it remains around all-time high levels at 65.764%, meaning a substantial amount of bitcoin in the network has not been moved for quite some time. Historically, that value has been trending upwards.
Particularly, in the earlier days, some of that may be related to lost coins, as around these days, it has not been that easy to store your bitcoin safely. It only has become easier over the last few years.
But it also points toward more users becoming long-term holders. Some by conviction and some newer entrants might have become bagholders as their bags are currently underwater.
For example, almost 9 million bitcoin on-chain are currently in loss. In comparison, during the last bear market at peak times on February 07, 2019, the supply in the loss was around 10.6 million bitcoin. So it is not as severe at present, but the amount of coins underwater is still quite substantial.
In any case, the supply last active 1+ years points towards fewer current coins being available to the market, which is positive.
Of course, this does not mean some of them cannot suddenly become active again if, e.g. the price starts to move significantly in either direction..