Bitcoin Fear and Green Index Newsletter. Block 30

Welcome to this week’s issue of Bitcoin Fear and Green Index Newsletter. It is a community-driven effort, and we all hope to see this newsletter grow with quality insight and analytics from community contributors like yourself. Read till the end to learn how you can participate.

This past week, Bitcoin entered volatile territory and initiated a highly contested battle between the bulls and bears. In today’s newsletter, I will explain the technical factors behind this volatility, and I’ll also detail the current state of the battle between the bears and bulls.

The chart above illustrates three key indicators:

Using these indicators in conjunction with each other draws a bigger picture. Notice how the Bollinger Bands broke into the Keltner Channels and began narrowing into very tight squeeze. Also note how at the same time, the 0-line on the Volatility & Momentum indicator turned red. In addition, the Bollinger Bandwidth (not displayed on the chart) was at record lows.

Altogether, these signals indicated that Bitcoin was experiencing extremely irregular levels of low volatility. These low levels of volatility can only be sustained for so long before eventually getting rectified. The drawn out consolidation period was another signal that Bitcoin’s price was being irregularly suppressed. This can be seen on the 0-line where an unusual number of red dots were materializing, further corroborating the aberration in price.

Shortly after these signals were recorded, Bitcoin broke down to ~$37,500 before abruptly rallying into the highs of ~$39,990.

Think of a spring being compressed; the more compressed the spring is, the more explosive its release will be. Now think of that spring being compressed to a fine point where more inward pressure would be virtually impossible. Letting go of the spring from that state of compression would result in a significantly high release of energy.

The extreme compression of the spring represents the irregular levels of low volatility. Moreover, the high release of energy from that spring represents the current volatility.

The chart above illustrates the Bitcoin price and the different levels of liquidation for long and short positions. The horizontal lines in orange/yellow represent the liquidation levels with regard to the price. The brighter the line is, the more concentration of short/long positions with liquidation levels at that particular line/price level.

Up until recently, the bears were winning the battle in March while the bulls were going through a cascade of liquidation events taking place from $44,000 down to $37,000. The chart above focuses on more recent events, highlighting the price action from the 10th of March and onward.

Notice how the bulls were getting repeatedly wiped out around the $38,000 mark while the bears remained unscathed. Essentially, the bulls were overleveraged at dangerous levels. They overextended their bets where they shouldn’t have and got corrected for it. Recently however, the bears got overconfident while the bulls were attempting a rally. The chart above illustrates a liquidation wave taking place around $39,300 where the bears got rectified.

Even though the bulls were getting continuously liquidated this month, they still remain adamant about protecting $37,000. The chart doesn’t show it, but the bulls just recently attempted to break through $40,000 again. The attempt was unsuccessful.

The bears have a built a fortress between $40,100 and $42,600. The immediate target for the bulls is to breach the bear walls at 40k and start an incremental takeover of:

TA review by @CryptoSultan21

Thailand’s cabinet eased tax regulations on Tuesday for investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in order to fully develop the second-largest growing economy in Southeast Asia, according to an official press release. A 7% VAT for authorized exchanges, as well as the ability to offset one’s annual losses for taxes due to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, aims to help incentivize further trading and investment strategies in the fast-growing economy. “This issue will allow Thai investors to trade digital assets on a reliable Thai exchange,” said Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, per a translated version of the release. “Because it is under the supervision of the SEC and other related government agencies, it enables Thailand to have a future payment infrastructure ready for the digital economy.” The tax exemptions provided through this initiative will be effective from April 2022 to December 2023, and will include the impending central bank digital currency (CBDC) that Thailand intends to offer, the minister said. Direct and indirect investments in startups will also be eligible for tax breaks, as investors who invest for at least two years in a startup will be offered tax breaks for 10 years, until June 2032, Termpittayapaisith said.

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order (E.O.) on Wednesday that actively calls for policy on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as well as “urgent” action towards developing a CBDC. The order outlines a “whole-of-government” approach, where a significant amount of regulatory agencies are called to collaborate in the research and development of digital assets and related regulation. “My Administration places the highest urgency on research and development efforts into the potential design and deployment options of a United States CBDC,” the order states. “Any future dollar payment system should be designed in a way that is consistent with United States priorities.” Most regulatory agencies were given time frames ranging from 120 days to one year, most often 180 days, for providing their reports on how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies operate within the economy, how to regulate them, and how to prevent their illicit use. The E.O. gives a 210-day deadline specifically for a proposal regarding CBDC development. Honing in on illicit use of cryptocurrency, the order seeks to properly regulate stablecoins and other digital payment methods that could break traditional barriers. “The international Financial Stability Board (FSB), together with standard-setting bodies, is leading work on issues related to stablecoins, cross‑border funds transfers, and payments, and other international dimensions of digital assets and payments, while FATF [Financial Action Task Force] continues its leadership in setting AML/CFT [Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism] standards for digital assets,” per the order text. The order directs the Department of the Treasury along with the Financial Stability Oversight Council, Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Trade Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, federal banking agencies, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to develop a policy for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a means to protect individuals from “systemic financial risks” and to combat the “illicit use of digital assets”.

Yoon Suk-Yeol, the conservative People Power party candidate focused on deregulating bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for the presidency of South Korea has won the closest presidential election in South Korean history with less than a 1% differential between himself and Lee Jae-Myung, the liberal candidate of the democratic party. South Korea harbors a tumultuous relationship with bitcoin and Yoon’s election is viewed as a changing tide toward South Korean sentiment. “To realize the unlimited potential of the virtual asset market, we must overhaul regulations that are far from reality and unreasonable,” Yoon said to a virtual forum in Seoul. “We must shift to a negative regulation system to ensure at least the virtual asset market has no worries.” Both Yoon and Lee aimed to sway the younger voters their way by turning to the deregulation of the broader crypto market as a way to gain favor with generations of struggling South Koreans finding difficulty in maintaining their worsening salaries. One of the pledges of Yoon is to raise the capital gains tax threshold for bitcoin from 2.5 million KRW (Korean Won) to 52.4 million KRW. In USD, that’s a change from around $2,000 to about $42,000. This came after Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki released a statement saying “Any further delay in the already postponed enforcement will lead to the loss of public trust in government policy and undermine stability in the legal system,” referring to a proposed 20% capital gains tax for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to take effect in 2023.

Stripe, the global online payment software developer, is returning to Bitcoin adoption in a partnership with FTX and Blockchain.com – after a hiatus in 2018 where they ended Bitcoin support – with its new crypto business infrastructure. “From new developments in blockchain infrastructure to widespread interest from major financial institutions, crypto is going mainstream,” says Stripe in its recently-updated blog post. Stripe Connect allows customers to spend from cryptocurrency exchanges and the ability to deposit funds in over 45 variations of fiat currency. Stripe Treasury allows businesses to create wallets and allow consumers to earn yield based on decentralized finance applications allowing users to manage cash flow, pay bills, and more. Stripe Issuing allows businesses to create virtual and physical cards that can be programmed to only work with specific vendors and hold a limited amount of funds. “Postmates uses Stripe Issuing to create cards for their fleet of couriers, programmed with custom spend controls that only approve transactions at the courier’s assigned merchant,” as stated on Stripe’s website. Stripe Identify allows businesses to authenticate ID documentation with a frictionless API that makes verification of users easier for businesses without placing a burden on users not attempting to commit fraudulent transactions. This will help scale digital marketplaces such as those used for non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Streamlined checkout flows and personalized optimizations leave for personalized automation allowing businesses to focus on the business, rather than dealing with the intricacies of how to accept emerging forms of payment.

Co-founder of Apple, Steve Wozniak, recently appeared on an episode of Steve-O’s Wild Ride!, in which Steve-O, a leading actor in ‘Jackass: The Movie’, discussed Bitcoin and its impact on both the economy and environment. “Bitcoin, it takes a lot of energy to mine and to keep all of these cyber currencies,” Wozniak said to Steve-O as the host of the show mentioned he had received some pushback from viewers of his show for selling a non-fungible token, which some of his audience viewed as a waste of energy. “It costs an amount of energy for what anything is worth,” Wozniak interjected. “The three E’s. The economy equals the energy used, equals the emissions. The global economy equals the energy used (if you double one, you double the other), and that equals the amount of pollution that we get. Double the energy, you double the pollution,” Wozniak said. He redirected the conversation explaining that the concern for Bitcoin energy consumption is largely unfounded since everything has a cost and we, as a society, have to determine if the cost is justified. To dismiss Bitcoin for energy consumption is to ignore the fact that anything we have uses energy, as Wozniak explained to Steve-O. When asked if humanity would continue to use fiat currency or if it was moving towards cryptocurrency by Steve-O’s co-host, Wozniak responded, “it’s hard to erase things that humans have learned.” Wozniak continued to explain that much of the use-cases arising today in the crypto space seem to be gearing towards scams. “I think it’s being used a lot these days to rip people off.” Giving an example of what these scams can look like Wozniak said, “I’ll start a crypto, I’ll hire an engineer that knows how to create it, and I’ll get a celebrity to back it up.” Using Kim Kardashian as an example, he said he’d make the Kim Coin. “And then the founders that started it pulled off some millions of dollars right away.” He continued to explain that this is a common story and sees many investors’ assets fall to zero due to a lack of diligence, or honesty from the founders. Wozniak continued to say, “the amount of people that get ripped off in crypto and NFTs is just outrageous.” He then separated Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies by saying, “Bitcoin is safe because it’s the big elephant on the block.”

The European Union (EU) has dropped its plans to impose a de-facto ban on bitcoin mining and related activities that could allegedly hurt the region’s efforts to promote sustainable technologies, according to multiple reports. The proposed de-facto ban on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism was part of a major draft bill in the EU, the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) legislation, introduced in 2020 to tighten regulation around Bitcoin and cryptocurrency by establishing a more detailed and streamlined regulatory framework across the continent. “It seems that reason and common sense prevailed,” Paris MEP Pierre Person tweeted. “We must continue to defend the principle of technological neutrality. Europe must remain in the global competition!“ The EU Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) voted against the PoW ban while passing a new amendment that adds cryptocurrency mining to the EU sustainable finance taxonomy. On the other hand, the broader MiCA legislation was approved with 31 votes to 4 and 23 abstentions, as per an official press release by the European Parliament. In addition to requiring a legislative proposal to include any cryptocurrency mining activities “that contribute substantially to climate change” in the EU taxonomy for sustainable activities, MiCA defines regulatory agencies to oversee the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, “supports market integrity and financial stability,” and “includes measures against market manipulation and to prevent money laundering, terrorist financing, and other criminal activities,” per the release.

"By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” 

- Benjamin Franklin on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Adoption News by @CuredSausage

This week’s issue is supported by Crypto Jobs List - the largest source of web3 jobs. There are hundreds of remote jobs that let your earn Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a part of your marketing, writing or engineering job in this industry.

We release this newsletter weekly and would love to feature the best contributors. Three sections are up for grabs:

To participate, submit your write up via this form. Best content will be featured and authors credited. ✌️