Bitcoin Fear and Green Index Newsletter. Block 23

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Bitcoin Fear and Green Index Newsletter. Block 23
By Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index • Issue #23 • View online
Welcome to this week’s issue of Bitcoin Fear and Green Index Newsletter. It is a community-driven effort, and we all hope to see this newsletter grow with quality insight and analytics from community contributors like yourself. Read till the end to learn how you can participate.

Current Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index
This week’s Technical Analysis
This past week, Bitcoin crashed into a dangerously murky territory, dropping -25% to the lows of $33,000 in a week’s time. In today’s newsletter, I’ll cover what the future could hold for Bitcoin, the potential source of this crash, and the implications of it all.
Murky Territory:
Before I dive into the bearish implications of this crash, I’d like to start by mentioning that all hope is not lost for Bitcoin. As seen on the chart above, Bitcoin is still trading within a new range of higher lows and higher highs. Breaking the previous summer low of ~$28,800 would negate this argument.
Looking at the chart above, we see how Bitcoin tested the 200 week MA during the 2019 bear market low. Bitcoin held the line successfully for around 130 days around $3,400 before ultimately rallying 300% in less than 150 days. The rally was cut short however, and Bitcoin began trending downwards into the lows of ~$6,300, what was though to be the bottom for Bitcoin. 3 months later on March of 2020, Bitcoin had a major flash crash that sent it virtually free falling into $3,800, the actual bottom which also bounced off the 300 week MA. Interestingly enough, when Bitcoin held the line at the 200 MA in 2019, those levels were never visited again. When Bitcoin found its bottom at the 300 MA during the crash of 2020, those prices were also never seen again. Even though Bitcoin is still over $15,000 away from both moving averages, if the previous range breaks and ~$28.800 fails to support the price, a revisit to the 200MA/300MA becomes dramatically more likely than not. However, if Bitcoin was to revisit those levels and hold them as support, it will most probably render them as obsolete points of control and never revisit them again in the future.
Where’s The Bottom?
To answer that question effectively, we need to include the RSI in the discussion. Paradoxically, the best way to approach this question is by not assuming a particular bottom to be definite. With that said, we can look at the RSI during the 2019/2020 timeline and see how the initially established bottom ($6,200) had the RSI at 20, and the rediscovered bottom ($3,800) had the RSI at 14. The RSI is currently at 20. Extrapolating the mentioned data and projecting the 200MA and 300MA into the future, we can make the assumption that if Bitcoin was to re-establish a bottom, anywhere between $18,000(300MA) and $23,000(200MA) would be reasonable. It’s important to remember that if a bottom was to be rediscovered, it would most likely not take place anytime soon. The market would consolidate for another ~3 months before that happens. This would not differ from the bottom in 2019 being re-established approximately 3 months after the it was last tested. The market can always experience a major capitulation event that would render this assumption wrong, but until that happens, this is the framework that makes most sense to me.
The Stock Market:
As much as I’d like for Bitcoin to operate entirely uninfluenced by the equities market, this is unfortunately not the case today. There has been a strong positive correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market dating several years back. Whenever the stock market goes through severe crashes or downtrends, Bitcoin typically follows suit and vice versa. Wall Street has a firm grip and major influence on the tech market, and that doesn’t exclude Bitcoin. Whenever these market makers initiate major selloff events, the effect tends to trickle down into a multitude of other markets. This was the case recently. In anticipation of the FOMC, the equities market was seemingly unfazed as gains were being made across the board and the market appeared to be optimistically rallying into previous resistance levels. This rally would prove to a sucker’s however, as shortly after the bullish momentum, the S&P500 would flash crash -8% in a matter of a few days, something it hasn’t done in well over a year. This crash also saw major tech companies like Netflix drop -33% in a week’s time, something the company hasn’t experienced since July 25, 2012.
Looking at the chart above, we see the S&P 500 breaking support level after another, eventually finding support at the 300 day MA and right above the point of control at 4188. This point of control is currently acting as the quintessential level of support for the index. Breaking below it would have the stock market in dangerously murky territory, not so different from where Bitcoin is currently at.
The FOMC (branch of the Federal Reserve System) meeting is currently in play and it holds major implications as to what the future direction of the monetary policy will look like. If the FOMC decides to take a contractionary stance by raising interest rates, this will most likely put the equities market and Bitcoin in an exceedingly precarious position moving forward.
What Am I Going To Do?
I’m going to patiently watch all of this unfold and have several buy orders ready to go. I’m going to assume that this is not the bottom, mainly for the reason of being prepared for a potential rediscovery. Truth of the matter is, nobody knows what Bitcoin is going to do. Previous data has proven to be exceptionally useful in helping us create a reasonable framework to work within, but it never intends to predict the future definitively, nor can it do so realistically. I wrote today’s newsletter with the goal of highlighting some of the most critical bearish information that I’ve recently become aware of, in hopes of better preparing you for the worst possible outcomes. I’m not overly excited about the current state of the market, but recovery is inevitable and the next couple of months could provide us with an opportunity to invest in unique projects that are looking to innovate and revolutionize the industry. Every major player in this space, be it Axie Infinity or Decentraland, Fantom or Harmony, had to start underpriced, undervalued, and undiscovered. The cycle continues. Stay on the lookout.
With that said, have a bullish week, until we meet again.
TA review by @CryptoSultan21
Bitcoin Adoption News This Week
Faith is taking the first step even when you don’t see the whole staircase.” — MLK Jr. on Bitcoin
Intel To Join Bitcoin Mining ASIC Market
Intel, the market leader in computer chip manufacturing, is on the brink of penetrating the bitcoin mining ASIC-making market to compete with the likes of Bitmain and Canaan, Tom’s Hardware first reported. The giant chip producer will present a new “Bonanza Mine” chip at the upcoming ISSCC conference, which according to conference information is an “ultra-low-voltage energy-efficient Bitcoin mining ASIC.” In December, the senior vice president and general manager of Intel’s Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics (AXG) group, Raja Koduri, said in an interview that the company had been working on a dedicated chip for cryptocurrency mining, commenting on how its GPU cards weren’t designed for that use case. “GPUs will do graphics, gaming, and all those wonderful things,” Koduri said. “But being able to do much more efficient blockchain validation at a much lower cost, much lower power, is a pretty solvable problem. And you know, we are working on that, and at some point in time, hopefully not too far into the future, we will share some interesting hardware for that.” It isn’t yet clear whether Intel will only reveal a project it has been working on, share a proof of concept, or launch a market-ready product. But given the presentation’s track, “highlighted Chip Releases: Digital/ML,” and the timing  a couple of months after Koduri’s comments  raise the prospects that Intel will release new hardware for mining bitcoin, focused on power-efficiency and decreased costs.
BitMEX To Purchase One of Germany’s Oldest Banks
Leading cryptocurrency trading platform BitMEX has taken steps to acquire the German bank Bankhaus von der Heydt, the company said in a statement sent to Bitcoin Magazine. A purchase agreement has already been signed but is still awaiting the green light of German regulators. “BitMEX Group is pursuing the ambitious goal of establishing a one-stop-shop for regulated crypto products in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, and thus becoming a strong player in Europe - in addition to the Group’s global ambitions.” The deal was signed by BXM Operations AG, a company founded by BitMEX CEO Alexander Höptner and CFO Stephan Lutz, and Bankhaus von der Heydt’s current owner, Dietrich von Boetticher. Details of the deal have not yet been provided, as the signing parties agreed to not disclose financial information relating to the transaction, which is pending approval by German financial services regulator, BaFin. BitMEX said it expects completion to happen in mid-2022. “Germany, as the largest economy in Europe, combines an innovative approach to digital assets with strong regulatory oversight and rule of law - making it a prime market for BitMEX’s expansion in Europe,” Lutz said in a statement. Founded in 1754, Bankhaus von der Heydt is a banking pioneer in Germany, having carried out one of the first securities issuances in the country as early as 1835. In addition to its current business lines around traditional banking, funds, and securitization, the centenary bank offers a range of banking services related to digital assets.
Milo Launches Bitcoin Mortgage In The U.S.
Real estate fintech Milo will launch the first U.S. bitcoin mortgage offering, enabling customers to leverage their BTC holdings to purchase properties in the country, the company said in a statement. Instead of selling bitcoin for a down payment to qualify for a mortgage, Milo now lets Americans and foreigners use their bitcoin stack as collateral for purchasing real estate in the U.S. “Milo’s clients will be able to pledge their Bitcoin to purchase property and finally qualify for a low-interest rate 30-year crypto mortgage,” per the statement. “This solution will allow clients to continue to own their bitcoin and diversify into real estate, all while keeping the potential price appreciation of both. Clients will be able to finance 100% of their purchase with no dollar down payments required and do this faster than a conventional mortgage.” The company said it has been developing the new offering since last year and anticipates it to be available to most applicants early this year as there is currently a large waiting list for the bitcoin mortgage. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, a proponent, and holder of bitcoin, also commented on Milo’s new offering, saying in the statement that the bitcoin mortgage is a “groundbreaking achievement” for advancing U.S. dominance in the Bitcoin ecosystem. “To become the Capital of Capital, Miami needs companies like Milo who are willing to innovate and ideate,” he added.
Google Cards To Store Bitcoin
Google is tiptoeing into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as the company’s payments division struggles to gain significant market share in the payments industry and touts adding custody capabilities of such assets to its digital cards, according to a report by Bloomberg. “Crypto is something we pay a lot of attention to,” said Bill Ready, Google’s president of commerce, per the report. “As user demand and merchant demand evolves, we’ll evolve with it.” According to the report, Google has formed partnerships with cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Inc. and cryptocurrency payment processor BitPay to enable the new functionality. The executive told Bloomberg that his team is looking for additional partnership opportunities, though the company still isn’t accepting bitcoin for transactions. Google’s cryptocurrency integrations allow its customers to hold BTC in their digital cards while spending fiat currency, an arrangement that doesn’t precisely use the peer-to-peer asset as a medium of exchange but enables users to spend their bitcoin holdings. Given Bitcoin’s astronomical rise in purchasing power over the past decade, it is hard to conceive a scenario where Bitcoiners would want to get rid of part of their BTC stack, as the opportunity cost to hold it and spend fiat currency directly instead rises.
Philippine Bank to Offer Bitcoin Trading
The Union Bank of the Philippines is planning to offer bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading and custody services to its customers, according to a Bloomberg report. The move seeks to capitalize on the rampant adoption of such assets in the Asian nation, the report said, as the average investor in the country is expected to hold between 3% and 5% of their assets in cryptocurrency in five years. Currently, these figures are approximately 1% to 2%, Cathay Casas, head of the bank’s blockchain and application programming interface group, told Bloomberg. Casas said the new offerings represent “a way to future-proof our banking business,” per the report. “We are making efforts to educate our clients also via social media, making sure that they are safe,” she added. The Union Bank of the Philippines offers a wide range of financial services to corporate and consumer clients, including investment management, trust banking, insurance brokerage, currency brokerage, and private banking services. It was incorporated in 1968 and has over 3,000 employees. The Union Bank of the Philippines’ custodial services for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will also be capable of encompassing tokenized bonds, Casas told Bloomberg.
Robinhood Starts To Allow Bitcoin Withdrawals
Robinhood has started rolling out its long-awaited bitcoin withdrawal feature. The company said in a statement that some users in the WenWallets waitlist have begun taking part in the functionality as beta testers, trying out the new cryptocurrency wallets. “This is the second major milestone in our Wallets rollout, which will enable Robinhood customers to send and receive their crypto from Robinhood to external crypto wallets, and fully connect Robinhood crypto holders to the greater blockchain ecosystem for the very first time,” per the statement. The feature is core to the experience of owning bitcoin because self-custody is the only true way for a user to have control over their funds. Robinhood said it started rolling out the cryptocurrency wallets on Thursday to 1,000 users from the top of the waitlist, incrementally inviting more users until reaching the 10,000 testers mark by March, at which point the company plans to roll out the feature to the rest of the users in the waitlist. “Beta testers will help us test core functionality and provide critical feedback to inform the final version of the product,” per the statement. “Over the duration of the Beta program, we will finalize the send and receive flows, add delightful QR scanning experiences, improve the transaction history interface, and add block explorer support to provide more insights into their on-chain transactions,” Robinhood said it would also include the ability for a user to calculate dollar amounts of their cryptocurrency holdings when sending and receiving funds. However, beta testers will have a daily limit of $2999 worth of bitcoin to withdraw in at most ten transactions. Two-factor authentication will also be required.
U.S. Real Estate Company Harbor To Accept Bitcoin
Real estate development company Harbor Custom Development Inc. will start accepting bitcoin as payment for its listed land, developed lots, residential homes, condominiums, and apartments in four U.S. states, according to a press release. “We embrace the technological advances in our industry and seek to guide their impact in the future,” Jeff Habersetzer, COO of Harbor Custom Development, said in a statement. “Harbor is excited to be the first national homebuilder and land developer to introduce our portfolio to the worldwide cryptocurrency market with more than 200 million users.“ Harbor is involved in all aspects of the land development cycle, including land acquisition, entitlements, construction of project infrastructure, home building, marketing, sales, and management of various residential projects. The company operates in Washington, California, Texas, and Florida. Harbor said it would accept cryptocurrency payments through a third-party company that would handle the conversion to U.S. dollars and hold the funds in escrow until the transaction is closed. Despite accepting bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Harbor’s sales will still be denominated and settled in U.S. dollars. Sterling Griffin, president, and CEO of Harbor said it is a “significant step forward for the company” to offer its real estate products and services to individuals and institutions holding cryptocurrency.
As your faith is strengthened you will find that there is no longer the need to have a sense of control, that things will flow as they will, and that you will flow with them, to your great delight and benefit.
Stay Safe & Stack Sats!
Bitcoin Adoption News by @CuredSausage
Community
This week’s issue is supported by Crypto Jobs List - the largest source of web3 jobs. There are hundreds of remote jobs that let your earn Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a part of your marketingwriting or engineering job in this industry.
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