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The Wolf Den #614 - This Is Our Fight

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November 4 · Issue #614 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
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In This Issue:
  1. This Is Our Fight
  2. Analysis Of Bitcoin’s Low Volatility - IntoTheBlock
  3. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  4. Altcoin Charts
  5. Legacy Markets
  6. Crypto Trading Goes Live On MoneyGram
  7. Fidelity Announces Free Crypto Trading
  8. The United States Vs. DeFi. Who Will Win?
  9. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
This Is Our Fight
Take a step back.
Sometimes it is important to zoom out and give ourselves a gentle reminder of why we are here.
There will be a time in the future when prices move up every day and good news flies at us at a million miles per hour. It is easy to be excited about the prospects of Bitcoin and crypto when the number is “up only.” To make it there, we have to survive. That’s a tall task.
With even a superficial look at the current market, it is blatantly clear that interest is dwindling and that there are more people leaving than arriving. The tourists are long gone, and few new ones are coming to visit our beautiful island.
That being said, I am quite sure that we still have a silent army willing to take up the fight when necessary.
Quiet does not mean gone.
Resolve is not tested in a bull market, but rather when the world is piling on the FUD and we question the purpose of our mission.
“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
These are the hard times.
I have a challenge for each and every one of you.
I want all of you to buy into the idea that the fight is ours .
There is always more that each and everyone of us can do to further the cause, to increase adoption, to convince others of the importance of this asset class.
That’s the purpose of the newsletter.
On many day,s like today, I offer some cheerleading and a solid dose of hopium to help keep spirits high during the down market. That’s the time to remember why we are here.
On other days, I share a government petition that needs signing. That’s the time to voice our opinions and take action.
On rare occasions, big news is announced but the market barely flinches. That is the time to consider buying more Bitcoin.
Some weeks we are excited because Bitcoin is adopted by a nation state or company. That’s the time to spread the news.
On other weeks we are all feeling frustrated because the FUD looks like it will never end. That’s the time to make sure that we stick to the facts.
Most importantly, we can continue to grow as traders and investors. That’s how this newsletter started and will always be the key focus. Education.
As corny as it sounds, we are all in this ship together, riding the storm of market volatility and global meltdowns.
I am glad you are all in the boat with me, because beautiful days are ahead.
Analysis Of Bitcoin’s Low Volatility - IntoTheBlock
In this report, we bring to you the latest in on-chain cryptocurrency analysis. We look at the blockchain directly and analyze balances, transactions, and the overall activity of market participants. This gives us a unique insight into the future of the market.
This section is written in conjunction with IntoTheBlock (ITB). ITB is an intelligence company that leverages machine learning and advanced statistics to extract intelligent signals tailored to crypto-assets. IntoTheBlock tackles one of the hardest problems in crypto: to provide investors with a view of a crypto asset that goes beyond price and volume data. 
The Wolf Den research team uses IntoTheBlock to dig deeper and get the most important insights about the crypto market.
Analysis Of Bitcoin’s Low Volatility
The past month has been calm in terms of price movements in the cryptocurrency markets. Despite traditional markets rallying in mid October, Bitcoin price remained relatively stagnant, hovering in the $19,000 to $20,000 range for approximately 10 days, before assuming the same rally. This uncharacteristic stability in Bitcoin’s price has led its 30-day volatility to drop below 30% for the first time since October, 2020.
Volatility is traditionally a measure used to evaluate the riskiness of investing in a particular asset. 
  • High volatility essentially means high price swings (either on the upside or downside). Low volatility, on the contrary, points to stagnating price action.
  • Historically in crypto markets, periods of low volatility tend to precede large spikes in prices
  • This is evident in the chart above for the dates of October, 2020, April, 2021 and May, 2022, in which the Bitcoin price took sharp swings in both directions.
Furthermore, this recent unusual Bitcoin price stagnation has caused price volatility of the Nasdaq100 to surpass that of Bitcoin.
  • This behavior is uncommon, since traditional market indices like the Nasdaq100 are characterized as being a less risky and more stable investment.
  • As it can be seen currently the Nasdaq 30-day volatility is 33% while Bitcoin’s is 23%.
Bitcoin volatility is gone, but consolidation often precedes expansion. The volatility is coming.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Bitcoin is doing absolutely nothing. Once again, this is good news considering how poorly stocks, and tech stocks in particular, have been performing. Further, we are seeing altcoins performing well across the board, which harkens back to the good old days of sideways Bitcoin price action in a bull market.
For now, Bitcoin is boring, and that’s a great thing.
Altcoin Charts
I do NOT share signals in this section. I share setups and charts that I am watching, in an effort to help show you how I view a chart and what criteria would be necessary for me to consider taking a trade. NEVER blindly buy something because it is listed in a newsletter or posted on twitter. You need to have a plan when you enter a trade. These are just ideas, and are almost always “if, then” scenarios. If a certain set of things happen, then I would consider a trade.
MATIC/USDT
I shared the inverse head and shoulders on multiple altcoins ages ago. In this case, MATIC has a target around $1.40 based on the depth of the pattern. More importantly, MATIC is finally attempting to break above the $1 area, which has been a key resistance and support. It failed this attempt in August.
A close well above this line would signal that resistance is once again support. RSI is well overbought already, so a pull back to retest the $1 area as support would be the ideal entry, if it happens.
If we are seeing a real altcoin run (I have my doubts), then Polygon should do well, especially considering their partnerships and the Instagram/Meta news.
Also, please revisit the BNB from chart from yesterday, which is breaking out nicely.
Altcoins are looking good across the board.
Legacy Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for Nov. 4 - Bloomberg
Key events this week:
  • US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday
Stocks
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.1% as of 9:55 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.7%
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
  • The euro rose 0.3% to $0.9779
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 147.81 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan rose 0.9% to 7.2690 per dollar
  • The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.1222
Cryptocurrencies
  • Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $20,583.54
  • Ether rose 2.5% to $1,579.53
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.14%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.25%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.49%
Commodities
  • Brent crude rose 2.1% to $96.69 a barrel
  • Spot gold rose 1% to $1,645.31 an ounce
Crypto Trading Goes Live On MoneyGram
Payments Giant MoneyGram Enables Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC) Trading on App - The Daily Hodl
That was fast. Only days ago news broke that MoneyGram was going to integrate crypto trading. It has already launched in nearly all US states.
While this is unlikely to move the needle in the short term, it is companies like this embracing the need to integrate crypto that will continue to help drive mainstream adoption.
Fidelity Announces Free Crypto Trading
Fidelity to open commission-free crypto trading to retail investors
“The firm, one of the largest brokerages in the world handling $9.9 trillion in assets, opened an early-access waitlist to users Thursday morning. The service, called Fidelity Crypto, will allow investors to buy and sell bitcoin and ether and use custodial and trading services provided by its subsidiary Fidelity Digital Assets. Users will be required to maintain a $1 account minimum.
“Where our customers invest matters more than ever,” Fidelity said in a statement shared with CNBC. “A meaningful portion of Fidelity customers are already interested in and own crypto. We are providing them with tools to support their choice, so they can benefit from Fidelity’s education, research, and technology.””
Fidelity continues to lead the charge for institutional adoption.
The United States Vs. DeFi. Who Will Win?
Podcast - The Wolf of All Streets
The United States Vs. DeFi. Who Will Win?
Regulation is the key to the development of Decentralized Finance. During the upcoming Thursday live panel we will discuss the future of DeFi and how DeFi platforms including SushiSwap, CakeDeFi and Kaddex are fighting for the future of finance. My guests are Jared Grey, CEO of SushiSwap, Julian Hosp, Co-Founder of DeFiChain, and Nicolas Ramsrud, CEO of Kaddex.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
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Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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