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The Wolf Den #613 - When To Buy Bitcoin

November 3 · Issue #613 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
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In This Issue:
  1. The Price You Deserve
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Altcoin Charts
  4. Legacy Markets
  5. Crypto Security Tips
  6. Polygon NFTs Come To Instagram
  7. ETFs Heading In The Wrong Direction
  8. Another Day, Another Hack
  9. The Future Of Tezos | Arthur Breitman
  10. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
The Price You Deserve
There’s a common and somewhat condescending saying in crypto - “everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
This is basically a way for early adopters to mock those who bought the asset later. This quote implies that later adopters do not deserve to reap the benefits of owning Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin was a Ponzi Scheme or get rich quick asset, then this overgeneralization might ring true. Since Bitcoin isn’t a Ponzi Scheme and holding any amount of Bitcoin is a privilege, the idea is clearly false.
I like the following take better.
“People like to say you buy Bitcoin at the price you deserve. But I want to say that you buy Bitcoin when you are prepared to admit you were wrong about Bitcoin.”
- Cedric Youngleman
When it comes to owning Bitcoin, there is no such thing as “being late.” Adopters should welcome all newcomers with open arms, removing the self-entitled air of being special for being early. Bitcoin isn’t just a tradable risk asset. It is a way to opt out of a system before it breaks.
Admitting you are wrong is hard.
Investors often succumb to their own biases or remain unalterably stuck in their old ways. That’s why I love the above quote.
I often talk about “strong opinions, loosely held.” An investor who is willing to question their core beliefs when presented with new information is naturally open to fresh opportunity. Sometimes this process takes a while. We should applaud those who change their opinion of Bitcoin, not mock them because it took longer than we view to be acceptable.
The greatest investors spend their lives fighting their biases and often finish a career with only a handful of great decisions.
Bitcoin is a once in a generation asset. It is our job to help others understand this, not to mock them because they are yet to join the party.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to look… fine. Nothing is happening, which in my eyes is a good thing. Why? Because stocks dumped hard at the end of the session yesterday after the 75 bps rate hike and Bitcoin continued to be boring. Bitcoin is no longer correlated to the stock market, which is what we were all looking for.
Little has changed on the chart. I still expect to head up to the 25K region in the coming weeks after this breakout, but would not be surprised by any outcome.
Altcoin Charts
I do NOT share signals in this section. I share setups and charts that I am watching, in an effort to help show you how I view a chart and what criteria would be necessary for me to consider taking a trade. NEVER blindly buy something because it is listed in a newsletter or posted on twitter. You need to have a plan when you enter a trade. These are just ideas, and are almost always “if, then” scenarios. If a certain set of things happen, then I would consider a trade.
BNB technically hit a few of the targets from last time I shared this. Zooming out, we can see that BNB has been in a massive range from $691 to $211, the blue area. After sweeping the lows of the range in June, it bounced back in and eventually formed a bull flag below key resistance (red zone). It broke out of the flag and flipped local resistance at $298. This targeted the red zone again.
That was one viable target. Now it gets interesting.
BNB is looking to flip $337.9, the top of the red area, to support. It is currently AT RESISTANCE. As a trader, I would not personally buy resistance. I would be looking for a break and retest of that area as support. This should take price eventually to around $500, the golden pocket between the 61.8% Fibonacci level and 65%. $377 would be the first real target, the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
The $500 are also aligns with the target of the bull flag, based on the depth of the pattern. You can see this in green.
This all depends on Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. If we do see some 4th quarter bullishness, I anticipate BNB outperforming.
Legacy Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for Nov. 3 - Bloomberg
“Every time the market gets a little bit of dovish hope, it gets smacked on the nose with a rolled up newspaper,” said Scott Rundell, chief investment officer at Mutual Ltd. “There’s a lot of volatility still ahead.”
Key events this week:
  • Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
  • US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index, Thursday
  • US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8% as of 9:30 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.1%
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.6%
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
  • The euro fell 0.6% to $0.9757
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 148.26 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.3475 per dollar
  • The British pound fell 1.1% to $1.1262
  • Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $20,304.89
  • Ether rose 2.6% to $1,550.75
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.17%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 2.24%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 3.49%
  • Brent crude fell 1.3% to $94.89 a barrel
  • Spot gold fell 0.8% to $1,621.78 an ounce
Crypto Security Tips
Bobby Ong
Crypto is a very dangerous and adversarial place. If you are not careful, you risk having your valuable cryptocurrencies stolen from you.

I've compiled a thread on some security best practices that you can follow to stay safe. Read on below 👇👇
This is a great thread with actionable advice for securing your crypto assets. Read it.
Polygon NFTs Come To Instagram
Sandeep | Polygon 💜🔝3️⃣
.@instagram influencers, creators, users you can now mint your NFTs.

Previously you could “only display” your NFTs from 4 different blockchains, now you can “mint”.

Minting is only on @0xPolygon

Bringing the world to #Ethereum
This is what mainstream adoption looks like. In the past, Instagram simply allowed users to display their NFTs, but never to mint and sell.
That is now possible, and only on Polygon.
NFT prices may be depressed, but there is still massive movement in the space.
ETFs Heading In The Wrong Direction
Three crypto ETFs to be delisted in Australia as crypto winter continues
We often wax poetic about the need for a spot ETF in the United States. Meanwhile in Australia… three crypto ETFs are being delisted do to lack of demand. This is a clear indication of just how bad the crypto winter has been, but is in no way a reflection of what will happen when the inevitable next bull market arrives.
We will eventually see a spot ETF in the US, and it will be huge.
Another Day, Another Hack
Crypto Exchange Deribit Suffers Hack, $28,000,000 in Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDC Vanish After Wallets Compromised - The Daily Hodl
Deribit was hacked. This is not a bridge hack or protocol exploit, but an attack on a centralized exchange.
This is what Deribit had to say.
“Deribit hot wallet compromised, but client funds are safe and loss is covered by company reserves. Our hot wallet was hacked for $28 million earlier this evening just before midnight UTC on 1 November 2022.
Client assets, Fireblocks or any of the cold storage addresses are not affected. It’s company procedure to keep 99% of our user funds in cold storage to limit the impact of these type of events. The hack is isolated and quarantined to our BTC, ETH and USDC hot wallets.”
While customers assets were not compromised, this is a further reminder to remove your coins from exchanges unless you are actively trading them and to be your own bank.
The Future Of Tezos | Arthur Breitman
Podcast - The Wolf of All Streets
The Future Of Tezos | Arthur Breitman
In 2017, Arthur Breitman co-founded Tezos along with his wife Kathleen Breitman. Tezos ran one of the most successful ICOs in history, raising 66,000 Bitcoin and 361,000 Ether, worth $232 million in 2017. In 2022, 5 years later, Tezos is now a thriving blockchain ecosystem with 135 projects being developed. I talked to Arthur about the origin and the history of Tezos, as well as the problems and issues of blockchains: interoperability, security, adoption, and regulation.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
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Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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