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The Wolf Den #567 - Saylor Size Me

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August 26 · Issue #567 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
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In This Issue:
  1. Saylor Size Me
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Legacy Markets
  4. BIG NEWS: Binance To Support Ethereum Fork
  5. 86 Million Votes In Favor Of Uniswap Foundation
  6. Snoop And Eminem Performing In The Metaverse
  7. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
The Size Of A Triple Halving
During a rare bout of Twitter scrolling, I came across an interesting thread.
Props to @korpi87 for the idea.
One of the most popular selling points for the merge is what Ethereans (is that even a word? If not, consider it trademarked now) are calling the “triple halving.” This phenomenon describes the 80-90% drop in Ethereum’s supply issuance post-merge. The name takes after Bitcoin’s halving, which happens once roughly every 4 years, reducing the supply by 50%. Thanks to the merge, Ethereum is about to effectively undergo 3 of these events at once.
Under the proof-of-work consensus method, roughly 5.5 million ETH are issued per year. According to Ultra Sound Money, issuance will be around .6 million Ethereum a year after the merge. That’s a difference of 4.9 million Ethereum.
This is where things get interesting.
We all know that Saylor is a big whale. Like Moby Dick big. He has spent in the ballpark of $4 billion to acquire his 129,699 Bitcoins. When Saylor started buying Bitcoin, his moves were large enough to track and to move the market.
Let’s pretend that the merge was not happening. What would it take to buy 4.9 million Ethereum at a current price of $1,700?
$1,700 X 4.9 million = $8,330,000,000 (that’s $8.3 billion). This is more than twice what Micael Saylor has spent to acquire his entire Bitcoin position. As @korpi87 points out, “the Merge at current ETH price is equivalent of two Saylor-sized ETH buys every year.“ And as the price of Ethereum rises, that $8.3 billion figure increases, meaning more Saylor-sized buys would be required to keep up. This is how the merge affects price. It’s built in and happens automatically.
With a little bit of math, Ethereum at a price of $3,500 requires 4.2 Saylor buys, and at $5,000, 6 Saylor buys are necessary. “Many Saylor-sized ETH buys would be needed to reproduce such supply growth reduction in PoW era.
The halving has never been (for Bitcoin at least) a significant price trigger on the actual day of the event. The effects are felt over the following months/years as supply is reduced and price is driven up by consistent or increasing demand. The merge signifies more than just a triple halving, but this is a compelling long term argument. Over time, it will be like Saylor is buying massive amounts of ETH.
To be clear, Saylor is highly unlikely to buy massive amounts of ETH!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Bitcoin price action has been predictably boring this week, with all market holding their breath in advance of Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hold Symposium today.
I decided to open a chart with one of my favorite old indicators, the Ichimoku Cloud.
While it may look confusing, it’s actually quite simple, and is effectively based on support and resistance.
It also looks quite bearish.
As you can see, price is trading below basically everything on the daily chart. The brown line is the Kijun and is effectively a 26 MA. The blue line is the Tenkan, which is effectively a 9 MA. Like with any MA based strategy, you can watch for bullish and bearish crosses of these two lines. In the Ichi Cloud strategy, context also matters… whether the cross happens below, above or within the cloud.
To show that no strategy works consistently, take a look to the left of current price action. There was a bullish cross of the Tenkan and the Kijun under the cloud. This is technically a signal to “close shorts” but not to “go long” because of the placement below the cloud. Price entered the cloud, which “should” have given an edge to edge move, targeting just above $32,000. That obviously did not happen, and bitcoin lost the cloud, tenkan and kijun as support in a single candle.
The cloud itself is red and wide. This means the trend is generally bearish and resistance is greater. Bulls want to see the cloud twist (Kumo Twist) to green. The thinner the cloud, the easier it is to pass through.
The first step here is to break the Kijun as resistane and flip it to support. For now, there’s nothing bullish using this indicator on the daily chart.
Legacy Markets
Futures Dip, Bonds Fall as Clock Ticks to Powell: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg
“US equity futures slipped Friday and Treasuries retreated as a chorus of Federal Reserve hawks prepared the ground for a much-anticipated speech by Chair Jerome Powell that’s set to shape views on the pace of monetary tightening.”
What to watch this week:
  • Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole, Friday
  • US personal income, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Will the meme mania fizzle out? That’s the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. Click here to participate anonymously.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% as of 10:38 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3%
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0005
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 136.85 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 6.8680 per dollar
  • The British pound was little changed at $1.1835
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.08%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 1.35%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.62%
Commodities
  • Brent crude rose 1.2% to $100.49 a barrel
  • Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,751.31 an ounce
BIG NEWS: Binance To Support Ethereum Fork
Binance Confirms Support for Post-Merge Ethereum Fork - Crypto Briefing
Binance is officially going to support the Ethereum hard fork on their platform (assuming it happens). Here is an excerpt from the official announcement,
The “ETH” ticker will be used for the Ethereum PoS chain. We will then credit to users’ Binance accounts the forked token from the minority chain at a ratio of 1:1, based on the snapshot of ETH balances before the Paris execution layer upgrade (approximately at ETH mainnet block height of 15,540,293, or 2022-09-15 00:30 (UTC).”
If you do plan on receiving the fork, send your Ethereum to Binance ahead of time and not at the last minute! Lastly, gas fees are dirt cheap right now, enjoy it while you can.
86 Million Votes In Favor Of Uniswap Foundation
86M votes overwhelmingly in favour of Uniswap Foundation - AMBCrypto
It will cost $74 million to make the Uniswap Foundation a reality. Of that $74 million, $14 million is slated for operational expenses to support a team of 12 over the next two years. Not a bad salary. What remains will go to Uniswap Grants, with the focus on, “open-source development, decentralized growth, and the long-term sustainability of the Uniswap Ecosystem.” While this might seem like a victory lap for Uniswap, there have been some questions surrounding the decision making process. Supposedly, the top twenty addresses accounted for over 94% of the total votes, which was 81.5 million of the 86 million votes. The foundation will be a turning point for Uniswap. Everything is on the line.
Snoop And Eminem Performing In The Metaverse
Eminem and Snoop Dogg will perform in the metaverse at MTV’s Video Music Awards on Sunday | Fortune
All crypto community eyes will be on Snoop Dogg and Eminem this Sunday at the VMAs. They will be performing their new single, “From the D 2 the LBC" - in the ‘Otherside’ metaverse. The performance will feature their apes and is an official collaboration between MTV and Yuga Labs.
Once the ‘Otherside’ is finalized, I imagine there will be unique performances exclusive to the metaverse that the VMAs won’t have the luxury of hosting. For now, let’s see how this performance turns out and what the public perception is of these two superstars rapping about monkeys and JPEGs.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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