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The Wolf Den #559 - Eliminate This Bad Habit Now

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August 16 · Issue #559 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and advice regarding trader psychology and emotional control. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE.
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In This Issue:
  1. Eliminate This Bad Habit Now
  2. Altcoin Charts
  3. Legacy Markets
  4. Crypto Scams On LinkedIn
  5. Galaxy Digital Backs Out Of BitGo Deal
  6. 2022 In A Nutshell
  7. Tornado Cash: The Piece Of Code That Sparked A Worldwide Battle For Privacy And Freedom Of Speech
  8. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Eliminate This Bad Habit Now
I won’t bother asking you if you are guilty of today’s topic, because we have all made this mistake at least once or twice. What mistake is that? It’s the trap of thinking too far ahead and doing so for the wrong reasons.
It looks something like this.
If Bitcoin hits $200,000, I can make the down payment on my dream home.
If Ethereum hits $10,000, I can retire.
One more profitable leveraged long and my kids can go to college.
One good month of trading and I can erase my debt.
Your version might be slightly different, but we are all basically telling the same story. This thinking starts in an honest place. We do proper due diligence, build conviction, develop a thesis, make a prediction and then act. This mistake creeps up on us as the profit rolls in, and is really hard to ignore. 
It’s human nature. We want the best for ourselves and others and are naturally hopeful. But hope is not an investing strategy.
We also fall into this trap because we work hard to derive a thesis or prediction and our brains naturally want to reward us for doing so. If the original idea looks and sounds good, but still isn’t working, we will find a way to justify our decisions and be “right,” staying in a bad investment long past our planned exit.
The next time you fall into this trap, I challenge you to replace the above statements with one of the positive affirmations below.
If I continue to carefully invest, markets will reward me because they trend up.
If I expand my time horizon, I increase my odds of long-term success.
One good month of harder studying and I can sharpen my trading skills.
Win or lose on this trade, I will learn from what went right and wrong.
Thinking positively about the process and not the results and on a longer time frame will breed success. Having this mindset helps reset your thinking to square one, reminding you why you are here in the first place. Rather than wandering into a fantasy land of what could be, you will find yourself revisiting your old thesis, sharpening your skills, questioning your biases, and formulating better ideas. Hopes and dreams are removed from the picture, alongside boats, cars and lavish vacations.
That’s not why you are here.
Assume better habits and focus on what’s important, and you will find far more success as an investor.
The yacht can wait.
Altcoin Charts
I do NOT share signals in this section. I share setups and charts that I am watching, in an effort to help show you how I view a chart and what criteria would be necessary for me to consider taking a trade. NEVER blindly buy something because it is listed in a newsletter or posted on twitter. You need to have a plan when you enter a trade. These are just ideas, and are almost always “if, then” scenarios. If a certain set of things happen, then I would consider a trade.
GMT/USDT
I have been hesitant to share altcoin charts now for months, because I am unconvinced that the trading environment is truly positive for longer term positions. That said, I was going to post this yesterday and did not pull the trigger… and I should have. GMT is breaking out of a descending broadening wedge, one of the more reliable patterns in technical analysis. The ultimate target is around the top of the wedge at $1.75, with a key resistance at $1.16. Conservative traders will wait for a break of $1.16 and retest as support because that resistance is so close. A retest of the descending broadening wedge could also be a decent entry.
If Bitcoin even sneezes, this and any altcoin setup will be destroyed. Keep that in mind and MANAGE YOUR RISK. Charts are merely risk management tools.
Legacy Markets
US Index Futures Decline Amid Caution Over Economy: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg
Here are some key events to watch this week:
  • Earnings include Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Tencent
  • Federal Reserve July minutes, Wednesday
  • New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
  • UK CPI, US retail sales, Wednesday
  • Australia unemployment, Thursday
  • U.S. existing home sales, initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index, Thursday
  • Fed’s Esther George, Neel Kashkari speak at separate events, Thursday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 6:37 a.m. New York time
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3%
  • The MSCI World index fell 0.1%
Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
  • The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0129
  • The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2019
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 134.14 per dollar
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 2.79%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 0.92%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.04%
Commodities
  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $88.51 a barrel
  • Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,789.40 an ounce
Crypto Scams On LinkedIn
Only 50 or so profiles out of 7,000 Binance employees on LinkedIn are real, says CZ
Scary. According to CZ, “only 50 of the 7,000 users claiming to be employees of Binance are actually real.” This scam targets hopeful project stakeholders looking to have their tokens listed on Binance. Screenshots have shown that the imposters formulate the image of legitimate accounts and then solicit deposits for new coins to be listed on the platform. After receiving the payment, they vanish and look for a new victim.
There’s a new scam every day,
Galaxy Digital Backs Out Of BitGo Deal
BitGo seeks $100M in damages from Galaxy Digital for calling off $1.2B acquisition – TechCrunch
At the height of the bull market last May, Galaxy Digital announced its billion-dollar acquisition plan for BitGo, the popular digital asset custodian. The $1.2 billion dollar deal was so large that it set a record as crypto’s most high-profile acquisition ever.
And now it’s over.
Yesterday morning, Galaxy officially announced that the deal is no longer on the table. According to Galaxy Digital, the deal ended because of BitGo’s failure to provide audited financial statements, leaving fair grounds for termination.
According to BitGo’s account, the company has, “honored its obligations thus far, including the delivery of its audited financials” which has resulted in them demanding Galaxy to pay a $100 million reverse break fee. By the looks of it, the dispute is probably going to be settled in court.
2022 In A Nutshell
The Crypto Geniuses Who Vaporized a Trillion Dollars
Want to know more about Su Zhu, Kyle Davies, 3AC, the yacht, and the downfall of crypto as a whole? Then look no further than this brilliantly written article that sums up this year in a captivating nutshell. Although there isn’t any new news in this article, it might be one of the best summaries of the 3AC collapse and the subsequent contagion it caused. Sprinkled in are some other facts about Su and Kyle that you probably didn’t know.
I highly suggest you read this article for a glimpse into what happened this year.
Tornado Cash: The Piece Of Code That Sparked A Worldwide Battle For Privacy And Freedom Of Speech
Podcast - The Wolf of All Streets
The biggest crypto story of the last week was the US Department of Treasury’s decision to sanction cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash. Why did it happen? What does it mean for freedom of speech? What are the implications to ordinary Americans who were using Tornado Cash? What does it have to do with Putin and North Korea? I discussed all of this and more with subject matter experts: Michael Fasanello, a compliance officer, and Seth Hertlein, global head of policy at Ledger.
My Recommended Platforms, Tools And Podcast Sponsors
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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