If you are reading this letter, then you have distanced yourself from the crowd - you swallowed the orange pill. The crowd that I am talking about likely includes over 95% of the world’s population, which are those with no exposure to crypto.
So how big are we as a group?
The most aggressive studies state that 16% of Americans have invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrency and that retail investors have distributed 4% of their wealth into the asset class. This feels high to me.
Slash those numbers by roughly half and you will have the numbers for institutional exposure - 8% with 2% exposure.
This is a small community.
We escaped one matrix, fiat, to enter another one - crypto.
So here is the question - have we left one herd to join another?
I often say that being contrarian is not enough. Leaving the fiat matrix for an altcoin casino is not necessarily an upgrade. This is a trap that lures in “contrarian thinkers.” There is nothing wrong with investing in altcoins or trading speculative assets, but most people who enter the crypto space through this door leave broke and disappointed. If you found your way here through DOGE, cartoon NFTs or other memes, then you have not exited the matrix. You have merely replaced it with an inferior one.
Being a successful contrarian means questioning each and every herd you enter. Questioning a fiat mindset is a successful first step, but the first town a new crypto enthusiast arrives at is likely a mirage aiming to separate them from their money. This is the reason that so many crypto investors fail in the long run - they are merely here to get rich quick.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the largest coins by market cap, but they certainly aren’t the #1 tourist attractions. To be a successful long-term crypto investor, one has to exit the fiat herd, fading the biases of the majority of the world, then exit the crypto herd, fading the many misleading biases that prey on people trying to fade the biases of the real world.
What a mess, right?
A successful crypto investor has to side-step two herds, each opposed, and each likely wrong in their own ways. It’s a balancing act of constant reality checks to ensure contrarian thinking hasn’t led us to a “contrarian trap.”
Arguably the safest approach is a core stack of Bitcoin, some Ethereum, 15% in collateralized stablecoins… and a healthy dose of patience and low time preference. This balance will keep you contrarian to the fiat herd, but also to the get rich quick herd that dominates this space.
Keep the other investments small, with the money you are willing to lose.