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The Wolf Den #549 - Have The Goal Posts Moved?

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July 26 · Issue #549 · View online
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In This Issue:
  1. Have The Goal Posts Moved?
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Legacy Markets
  4. Voyager Vs. SBF
  5. The SEC Probes Coinbase
  6. CZ Sues Bloomberg
  7. More Evidence That Institutions Want Ethereum
  8. How Bitcoin Will Decentralize Social Media | Justin Rezvani, Zion
  9. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Have The Goal Posts Moved?
It’s going to be a BIG week for markets. Below is a short list of the key announcements worth watching. Expect massive volatility.
Microsoft Earnings - Tuesday
Google Earnings - Tuesday
Meta Earnings - Wednesday
Apple Earnings - Thursday
Amazon Earnings - Thursday
Fed IR Decision - Wednesday
Advanced GDP Estimate - Thursday
Pundits have been having a field day with what these events are likely to mean for markets. There are the predictors, eagerly placing bets on where the earnings will fall, what the interest rate decision will be, and even how Ethereum will be impacted. They’ll mostly be wrong. They are also debating whether the US is heading into recession, already there, or not going to get there at all.
There is also seemingly widespread consensus that the government has conveniently changed the definition of a recession overnight.
My first instinct was to buy into this idea, but I quickly had my doubts. After enough research, I have once again decided to jump on my horse and embark on a crusade to kill the FUD and fake news.
Let’s learn the truth.
Here’s the back story, with context. 
Late last week, The White House published a blog titled, “How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession?” that discussed The National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER’s) official definition of a recession. The blog discussed what constitutes a recession and how recession is defined. I will include this definition below, because it is important. But I want to offer more context first.
Since 1974, it has generally been accepted that a recession is entered after two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. This is the most simplistic technical definition that students are taught in school and armchair economists use to make predictions.
Now back to the blog (you can read HERE) that pissed everyone off last week. Here is how they defined a recession.
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee—the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as - “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The variables the committee typically tracks include real personal income minus government transfers, employment, various forms of real consumer spending, and industrial production.
Let’s compare this definition to a definition I found in a 2009 blog written by an Assistant Director and Senior Economist in the IMF’s Research Department. You can read it HERE.
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.”
So there you have it, folks. The goal posts have NOT moved. NBER has been using this definition for at least 13 years, likely longer.
I can understand where the anger and frustration are coming from. This blog was conveniently released alongside Janet Yellen’s statement that she “doesn’t see any sign that the US economy is in a broad recession.” Furthermore, the NBER isn’t particularly good at their job. When recessions are short-lived, the committee is known to announce them starting after they are already over. For the Great Recession, NBER declared the end over a year after it was actually finished. Their job is hard, they clearly aren’t perfect, and everyday people are upset.
I won’t bother with predictions, but it does seem likely that the very fact that the White House published these definitions and discussed second quarter GDP before the numbers were released was a massive tell. They’re likely prepping for "bad news.” Many of the tell-tale recession catalysts have already played out. We will likely have endless debate, even after the numbers are released, as to whether we are in a recession or not.
But the definition hasn’t changed… it just remains vague and open to interpretation.
Just how the government likes it.
And now I shall lay down my sword. I declare this short crusade complete.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
I could have saved a lot of time and energy by not taking a single moment to chart Bitcoin for the past month and a half. Price continues to range sideways, even with the slight break above over the past few days. After breaking the 50 MA for the first time since April, price failed to hold it as support and now is trading back below. Further, the range highs around $22,500 have also failed as support. What does it mean? We are right back in the low 20s. Not so exciting.
4-HOUR CHART
If you are actively trading Bitcoin for some reason (I certainly am not), then this is the area that you want to see a nice bounce. We have a demand zone (also on the daily, not shown, but in same spot) in red, with this being the area where the last move up was launched. Price is also sitting on the 200 MA, a line that price has now been trading above for the longest time since April when it broke down. Low time frames can offer some clues, and bulls really want to defend this area.
As I continue to say, RSI inevitably makes the roundtrip back and forth from overbought to oversold. Right now RSI is slightly above oversold, so I will be watching for it to hit and for potential bullish divergence down the road. It obviously does not need to happen.
Notably, RSI is almost oversold here. Last time it was at this level, price was about $1500-$2000 lower, so there is some relative strength here.
Legacy Markets
Pre-Fed Caution May Subdue Asia Open as Bonds Slip: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg
Here are some key events to watch this week:
  • Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta earnings due this week
  • US new home sales, Conf. Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
  • IMF’s world economic outlook update, Tuesday
  • EU energy ministers emergency meeting, Tuesday
  • Fed policy decision, briefing, Wednesday
  • Australia CPI, Wednesday
  • US GDP, Thursday
  • Euro-area CPI, Friday
  • US PCE deflator, personal income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 6:10 a.m. New York time
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%
  • The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
  • The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0163
  • The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2007
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 136.62 per dollar
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 2.76%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 0.96%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 1.91%
Commodities
  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $98.44 a barrel
  • Gold futures were little changed
The SEC Probes Coinbase
SEC Probing Coinbase for Allegedly Listing Securities: Report
The SEC is probing Coinbase for allowing United States citizens to trade unregistered securities.
Why does this matter?
The SEC is clearly ramping up their rhetoric with regard to coins being securities… but without every actually proposing a framework for deeming them as much. Just last week, we saw them quietly imply that seven coins were securities in their insider trading case against a former Coinbase employee.
It seems the SEC is content to regulate through litigations and probes, rather than actually provide clarity as to what projects can and cannot do.
Not great.
Voyager Vs. SBF
wassielawyer
1/ So what is @SBF's latest proposal to 'save Voyager's customers' all about? Why is Voyager so pissed with his offer?

Join your friendly neighborhood hentai anime penguin in a suit as we delve into the latest move from the @FTX-@AlamedaResearch Distressed Opportunities Fund.
Many of you have asked me for my thoughts on the FTX/Voyager debacle.
There is quite a bit of confusion. First, the proposal was made public at the same time as it was made privately. Voyager did not know that the proposal was coming until it was announced in the media, which left them unable to respond for a few days. The news made it seem that this proposal was accepted. Not the case. As you can read in the thread above, Voyager was extremely angered by the offering.
Read the thread above - it actually aligns with my thoughts on the matter and will save me quite a bit of time and effort.
I will update with further thoughts as more information arises.
The SEC Probes Coinbase
CZ Sues Bloomberg
Binance CEO CZ Sues Bloomberg Subsidiary for Defamation - Crypto Briefing
It’s always popcorn worthy when one of the greats - in this case, Changpeng Zhao - gives a swift and well-deserved kick in the nuts to a desperate media company presenting fake news for clicks. In this case, CZ is filing a defamation suit against Bloomberg’s Chinese subsidiary, Modern Media Company. The article was titled “Changpeng Zhao’s Ponzi Scheme,” which can only be seen on the Chinese edition. The English version was titled, “Can Crypto’s Richest Man Stand the Cold?
I hope he wins.
More Evidence That Institutions Want Ethereum
Institutional Investors Pile Into Ethereum (ETH) at Highest Rate Since November 2021: CoinShares - The Daily Hodl
Last week, I had a section titled, “Institutions Want Ethereum.“ The evidence continues to grow. CoinShares, a crypto-focused digital asset manager, just had its largest week in a year. This is what they said regarding their Ethereum product: “Ethereum saw inflows totaling $8 million, while the corrected prior week data saw inflows totaling $120 million. These inflows mark the largest single week of inflows since June 2021 and imply a turning point in sentiment after a recent 11-week run of outflows. It also suggests that as The Merge progresses to completion, investor confidence is slowly recovering.” I am going to say this until I am blue in the face - the merge is the most tangible bullish narrative for crypto at the moment, and it is a strong one.
How Bitcoin Will Decentralize Social Media | Justin Rezvani, Zion
Podcast - The Wolf of All Streets
Can Bitcoin solve Social Media’s censorship problem? Justin Rezvani, Founder of Zion, a decentralized community-building platform, believes that the social media of the future will be built on Bitcoin and the Lightning Network. They will be censorship-resistant - giving creators control over their content, ownership of their online identity, and the ability to monetize without the need for a middleman.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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