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The Wolf Den #547 - When All Else Fails

July 22 · Issue #547 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and advice regarding trader psychology and emotional control. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE.
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In This Issue:
  1. When All Else Fails
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Altcoin Charts
  4. Legacy Markets
  5. 3AC Founders Resurface
  6. Ethereum Will Scale
  7. Coinbase Employee Commits Insider Trading
  8. The FBI Identified These Crypto Scams
  9. JPMorgan Analysts Think The Bottom Is In
  10. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
When All Else Fails
Providing fresh ideas 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year can be daunting task and a bit of exhausting for both the reader and the writer.
I wanted to keep today’s intro short and sweet. If there is one simple shred of advice I have, regardless of what you know, what you have, and what you think, it’s this.
Buy Bitcoin.
It’s not profound, it’s not sexy, it’s not genius, and it’s not a “get rich quick scheme.”
The asset is volatile, it’s highly criticized, slow moving… and one of the last true frontiers of financial opportunity in the current landscape.
Yes, it has become a risk asset, correlated to the markets we once sought to escape, but this won’t always be the case. Bitcoin was not designed to be just another index that ebbs and flows with all of the others. It will either prove itself special or die trying. My bet is on the former.
So when you read this message today, and all else fails, buy the Bitcoin you can comfortably afford. Easy.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I know, I saw the same thing every day. We are watching the red 200 MA for the weekly close on Sunday. For now, price is trading above on a sizable bullish candle with increasing volume. Looking good, but too early to tell.
Very pretty chart, moving technically well. As you can see, price came back to retest the blue 50 MA as support, as well as the black line that represents the top of the old range. Bitcoin has now broken resistance (both) and retested as support. That is exactly what bulls want to see here.
Impressive bounce after the Tesla news. That move has been completely retraced.
Let’s hope bulls keep it up.
Altcoin Charts
I do NOT share signals in this section. I share setups and charts that I am watching, in an effort to help show you how I view a chart and what criteria would be necessary for me to consider taking a trade. NEVER blindly buy something because it is listed in a newsletter or posted on twitter. You need to have a plan when you enter a trade. These are just ideas, and are almost always “if, then” scenarios. If a certain set of things happen, then I would consider a trade.
Charting Bitcoin Dominance is an iffy proposition, because there are not buyers and sellers. That said, it can still give us some information. It is also a great gauge for what altcoins are likely to do relative to Bitcoin, across the board.
I shared this chart a number of times in May and June. Every single time that RSI has gone overbought on Bitcoin Dominance, we have seen at least some semblance of alt bullishness. This time turned out to be the same, although at the tail end of the move rather than when RSI first dropped. It played out exactly as we discussed, now moving to oversold. But it can stay down here for quite a while.
There’s nothing particularly actionable here, more just analysis. RSI bounced from oversold, but looks ready to head back down, which would mean more altcoin bullishness.
Legacy Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for July 22, 2022 - Bloomberg
Fed meeting next week! That’s what matters for now.
Some of the main moves in markets:
  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 6:59 a.m. New York time
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%
  • The MSCI World index was little changed
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0167
  • The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.1953
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 137.30 per dollar
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 2.81%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined 17 basis points to 1.05%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 1.93%
  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $95.04 a barrel
  • Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,739.70 an ounce
3AC Founders Resurface
3AC founders reveal ties to Terra founder, blame overconfidence for collapse
Su Zhu and Kyle Davies have finally reemerged after 5 weeks in the dark. Although not much has been revealed, they have stated that they are moving to Dubai and intend to cooperate with authorities.
They also stated that their collapse was largely a result of overconfidence in a bull market, trust in their friend Do Kwon, and in the end, the drop of Bitcoin from 30K to 20K.
Everyone is a genius in a bull market…
Ethereum Will Scale
Vitalik Buterin Discusses Ethereum's Upcoming 'Merge' and 'Surge' at EthCC in Paris
Yesterday morning, Vitalik shared some exciting news regarding the development of Ethereum 2.0 at the Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) in Paris. The most news-worthy comment was definitely the one regarding Ethereum’s scalability post-merge, “by the end, Ethereum will be able to process 100,000 transactions per second,” Vitalik said. Currently, Ethereum is capable of processing about 15 to 30 transactions per second, which makes the merge completely mindblowing when it finishes. 
Wondering when the merge might happen? Vitalik hinted at the conference it could be as soon as this September becuase 90% of the necessary testing is complete. But the merge isn’t the end, Vitalik also added at the talk that, “once the merge finalizes, the protocol will only be 55% complete.” As the merge approaches, it’s hard to see Ethereum as another altcoin, the market is becoming Bitcoin, Ethereum, and everything else.
Coinbase Employee Commits Insider Trading
Former Coinbase manager and two others charged in crypto insider trading scheme
For years, it was (unspsoken) public knowledge that hours before a Coinbase listing, there was almost always a subtle price increase… as if someone on the inside (of a massive company) knew what was coming. The “Coinbase Listing Pump” has largely become a thing of the past, but 3 Coinbase employees still managed to commit insider trading and go down as the first people to be charged with insider trading in the crypto world.
U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said this on the subject, “today’s charges are a further reminder that Web3 is not a law-free zone. Our message with these charges is clear: fraud is fraud is fraud, whether it occurs on the blockchain or on Wall Street. And the Southern District of New York will continue to be relentless in bringing fraudsters to justice, wherever we may find them.” The first to get caught are always struck the worst, this is going to be harsh.
Brian Armstrong - barmstrong.eth
1/ At Coinbase, we actively monitor for illegal activity and investigate any alleged misconduct. In April, we received information about possible frontrunning of assets shortly before being listed on Coinbase. We immediately launched an investigation into this.
The FBI Identified These Crypto Scams
FBI detects fake crypto apps that scammed $42.7M from 244 victims
From October 4, 2021, to May 13, 2022, the FBI found three major crypto scams that stole over $42 million from victims. The attacks were pretty similar to ones I have covered in the past. Basically, hackers opened up shop under the guise of real exchanges to lure in unsuspecting victims. The hackers kept the names and logos identical to real platforms and managed to convince users to deposit funds. Victims were also asked to pay taxes on the platform in order to withdraw their funds, which should have been a major red flag. Scams like these are why regulation isn’t always a bad thing. Until the proper oversight comes, crap like this will continue to work.
JPMorgan Analysts Think The Bottom Is In
Crypto Retail Demand Improving, JPMorgan Says - Coast Is Clear? |
Analysts at JPMorgan are hinting that the crypto bottom is in, pointing at a number of reasons for this belief.
Their research shows that retail demand has increased and that they expect this to continue. The recent rise in prices is attributed to smaller wallets, not necessarily whales. Further, futures are no longer in backwardation, and the deleveraging and unwinding of major players seems to be coming to an end.
Some good news.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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