Since the music has stopped and markets have decided to punish us relentlessly, I thought it would be a good time to reflect on the things that I could have done differently. We can’t change the past, but we can learn lessons from our experiences, which is why I have decided to codify some custom tailored advice to myself in this newsletter. Perhaps my list is similar to yours. Maybe you will be inspired to create your own.
The goal is to avoid making the same mistakes again in the future. Print your lessons out, hang them up, our shout them in them in the mirror. Just don’t forget them.
Lessons to myself, in no particular order:
Listen to my friends… and the greats - Nobody knows you quite like your friends and nobody knows more than the greats who have come before us. The market is always challenging, meaning it’s really easy for our biases to lead us astray and trick us into thinking we are brilliant when things are going well. Friends keep us on track and the greats lead the way. MANY people in my life and on my show offered soft warnings that things were likely to turn, and that platforms I trusted were riskier than I gave credit for. I simply did not listen.
Do better at taking profits - This one is pretty straightforward. When things are going well, sell! If I can force myself to buy when things are ugly, then I can also force myself to sell when things are great. From here on out, I will pay less attention to “predictions” and more attention to profits and losses. It’s okay to be the hated investor that takes profits. To be clear - I did take quite a bit of profit on altcoins, but I could have taken MUCH more.
You are playing against the best of the best - There are sharks and cutthroat billionaires waiting to countertrade your every move. Every time I buy and every time I sell, I need to ask myself who might be on the other side of the trade. I am only a small fish in a very large sea, which means defense is everything.
This is a lifelong game - Today does not matter, yesterday does not matter, and tomorrow does not matter. Investing is like maintaining good health - the practice doesn’t just stop and start at random points, but is a consistent and lifelong pursuit. I am relatively good at zooming out, but still focus a bit too much on the day to day news. It’s hard to step away mentally when I am writing a newsletter and making videos every single day.
Being contrarian is not enough - I also have to be right. It’s far too easy to get caught up in the crypto bubble and forget that 95% of the world is doubting us. Being a successful contrarian means I have to fade both the biases of the outside world and those who occupy our bubble. There are two herds, each opposed, and each likely wrong in their own ways. This is a balancing act that needs constant consideration.
You can only trust yourself - Self-custody is the way to go. Being your own bank is not an easy task, but handing over hard-earned money to others to find yield clearly isn’t viable. Whatever the shiny new future thing is that make us forget the importance of self-custody, ignore it. If crypto succeeds, the interest from yield will have never mattered. The only thing that matters is protecting what I own.
There are quite a few more, but I will save them for another day. This is a good starting point, and a list that I will revisit regularly.