The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter

By Scott Melker aka The Wolf Of All Streets

The Wolf Den #538 - In Search Of The Holy Bottom

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July 11 · Issue #538 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and advice regarding trader psychology and emotional control. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE.
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In This Issue:
  1. In Search Of The Holy Bottom
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Legacy Markets
  4. Beware Of This Scam!
  5. What Happened To Volume On Binance?
  6. Elon Musk Pulls Out Of Twitter Deal
  7. CryptoWendyO On Becoming YouTube’s Number 1 Woman In Crypto
  8. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
In Search Of The Holy Bottom
Do you ever look really hard for something that you can’t find, and the moment you stop searching it magically appears in the one obvious place that you forgot to look? Do you ever have a word on the tip of your tongue, but the harder you think about it, the more difficult it is to remember?
Something similar is currently happening in markets, and we as a collective are to blame. Anxiety has kicked in and everyone is desperate to find the elusive bottom. 
If I had a chart for anxiety, its volume would be at an all-time high. With Celsius, 3AC, and Voyager already under our belts, we are becoming progressively more anxious to see a definitive end to the contagion and to find the bottom. As more time passes, the stakes rise and more wild predictions are made. Facts give way to fiction and emotions dominate the news cycle. Desperation has kicked in and we have driven ourselves mad, but it’s all a part of God’s plan.
God you say?
Yes, you read that correctly.
By God, I mean the Father (the Fed), the Son (Jerome Powell), and the Holy Spirit (inflation). If you think there is something else driving markets right now, then I have a lovely beach front condo to sell you in Topeka, Kansas. News flash - everything is entirely out of our hands. Cancel your search for the bottom. If you think it’s on the tip of your tongue, forget it. This “Holy Trinity” is all that counts until they have finished their Crusade.
We can read tea leaves, track hamsters in cages, throw darts, and ask our estranged aunts and uncles for advice, but until our overlord decides what is next, we are at his mercy. In just a couple of days, we have a key CPI announcement, and by the end of the month we have the Fed’s next interest rate hike decision. Polls are strongly predicting another 75-basis-point raise, allowing pundits to guess how markets will be affected. Predictions beyond these three factors are likely off the mark and predictions about these three factors are just a high-stakes guessing game.
We can search all we want for this bottom, but we will likely only see it clearly after it has already happened. Hindsight is, of course, 20/20. We can douse ourselves in regulatory holy water, offer up sacrifices (3AC, Celsius, Voyager), and pray for a pivot, but nothing is going to change. There is a blessed bottom coming, but there’s no reason to obsess over the timing.
Save money if you need to, dollar cost average if you can, and remind yourself why you are here in the first place. The market Gods will take care of the rest.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
Bitcoin just closed it’s 4th consecutive week below the 200 MA, 3 more times than ever before. Price remains trapped between this line and the 2017 high, around $19,666 on Bitstamp.
Last week finally had a back test of the 200 MA as resistance (almost), which was expected. The rejection on the first try was also expected.
Price is simply trapped between key levels. For now, this is sideways chop.
4-HOUR CHART
As is almost always the case, the overbought bearish divergence played out. I pointed this out when it happened, which coincided with price at macro resistance. RSI does not have to head immediately to oversold, but it will get there eventually.
Legacy Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for July 11, 2022 - Bloomberg
What to watch this week:
  • Earnings due from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Wells Fargo
  • New York Fed President John Williams speaks in Libor talk, Monday
  • BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Monday and Tuesday
  • South Korea, New Zealand rate decisions, Wednesday
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book, Wednesday
  • China trade, Wednesday
  • US PPI, jobless claims, Thursday
  • China GDP, key economic data, Friday
  • G-20 finance ministers, central bankers meet in Bali, from Friday
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 5:45 a.m. New York time
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5%
  • The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
  • The euro fell 0.8% to $1.0108
  • The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.1945
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 137.03 per dollar
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.06%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 1.29%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.20%
Commodities
  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $102.34 a barrel
  • Gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,734.80 an ounce
Beware Of This Scam!
depression BTC
Very creative scam taking place. Guy loads up a wallet with $10k of some random shitcoin, but no ETH. "Accidentally" posts seedphrase in a TG group or over DMs. People get access to wallet, then send in ETH to cover fees for withdrawal. ETH auto bounces out to scammer's address
The most common crypto phishing attack is to lure victims into a fake site that mimics a real platform. If a wallet is connected or a seed phrase is shared, the victim loses everything. The scammers know we have caught on and now there has been an emergence of a new kind of attack.
Here’s how it works. You receive an email or DM asking for help recovering “lost” coins, a 12 or 16-word phrase is “secretly” shared with you, you enter the phrase and see what appears to be stranded crypto. You try to remove the coins with gas, nothing happens, no matter how many times you try.
What actually is happening is that the scammers have set up the wallet in such a way that there is insufficient gas to withdraw funds. When you send gas to the wallet, those funds are immediately sent to another wallet. A smart contract is used against you that steals your gas and makes sure the coins remain locked.
It’s clever, and effective. Be careful out there.
What Happened To Volume On Binance?
Binance Volume Surges After Zero Trading Fee Policy Goes Live
Immediately after Binance launched free trading on 13 Bitcoin pairs, the feature was abused and a massive amount of wash sales were dominating the order books. Wash trading is a tactic whales use to buy and sell large amounts of crypto solely to manipulate the order book. There isn’t a gain or loss when it’s done and it’s illegal in legacy markets.
Volume on Binance spiked higher than the March 2020 crash and charting became effectively useless on the platform. CZ had a quick response to the incident and excluded certain users from the volume calculations, but that only helped a little. Unfortunately, the free Bitcoin trading may come to an end sooner than planned.
Elon Musk Pulls Out Of Twitter Deal
How Elon's bizarre Twitter takeover saga could have just been a cover for him to sell $8.5 billion in Tesla stock | Fortune
On Friday, news hit that the Elon Musk Twitter saga has come to an end and that he will not be buying the platform. Although Musk agreed to the deal, it seems as though his issue with the high amount of undisclosed fake accounts seems to be grounds for him to pull out. Will Twitter let him walk away? Not without a fight…
Twitter hires law firm Wachtell to sue Musk after pulling out of $44 billion deal | Reuters
Twitter has hired an all star team of litigators to pursue the deal in and effort to force it through. What does Musk think of this? He simply tweeted the following.
There is a conspiracy that the whole ordeal was just an excuse for Musk to sell shares of Tesla, but that is purely speculation.
It will be interesting to watch this play out.
CryptoWendyO On Becoming YouTube’s Number 1 Woman In Crypto
Podcast - The Wolf of All Streets
CryptoWendyO On Becoming YouTube’s Number 1 Woman In Crypto
It’s no secret that the world of crypto is heavily male-dominated. Crypto Wendy O is on a mission to correct that gender gap. She’s a voice for women and for anyone else who feels voiceless in this industry. With 170k subscribers on Youtube, she’s become the most viewed female in all of Crypto. Today we discuss how her channel began, how she’s been able to build outside of the conventional crypto framework, and how crypto quite literally changed the trajectory of both her life and her daughter’s life.
In this episode with CryptoWendyO, we discussed:
  • Why Wendy is passionate about bringing more women into this male-dominated industry
  • How Wendy’s upbringing influenced her career
  • The O Show (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCla2…)
  • Paving the way to positive change through Youtube
  • A 5-year-olds understanding of crypto
  • Building outside of the conventional crypto framework on TikTok
  • Crypto’s toxic subgroups
  • How Bitcoin changed the trajectory of Wendy’s life
  • A voice for the underdogs
  • Trauma, violence, and the toxicity of the internet
  • Wendy’s upcoming book
My Recommended Platforms, Tools And Podcast Sponsors
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Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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