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The Wolf Den #53 - Trades, Markets, Tips, Money Printing And More

Revue
 
This newsletter is sponsored by 2 amazing companies: VOYAGER and PHEMEX. I use Voyager for my spot tr
 
May 19 · Issue #53 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
This newsletter is sponsored by 2 amazing companiesVOYAGER and PHEMEX.
I use Voyager for my spot trading and investing (and to compound interest) and I use Phemex for trading with leverage. Sign up to both with the links above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them both out - you know that I never endorse a product that I do not use!
– Paid members receive this newsletter 2-3 times EVERY WEEK. I would love to have you join us! https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/members
Bitmex went down. Again.
I have been railing against Bitmex since the end of 2017, warning people that it was an unregulated casino, with market stops failing to execute, massive slippage, overloads during volatility and an internal trading desk counter trading customers during down time. These issues have been reported countless time by disgruntled traders, many of who still run back to lose again and again like battered spouses.
This was never more clear than on March 12th, when Bitmex nearly sent the price of Bitcoin to 0 because of their overeager liquidation engine, firing 10-15M sell orders into an empty book. This morning, the Bitmex chart was showing Bitcoin price as 0. We have discussed this to death, so no need to go much deeper. I just want to be clear that Bitmex is bad for Bitcoin - and while it is down, it is unwise to trade Bitcoin on any exchange with confidence.
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming…
Making great calls and being able to actually trade them for profit are vastly different skills.
This may seem like a confusing statement, but it should be very obvious to those of you that trade actively. A great analyst can make million of dollars a years at a hedge fund without ever executing a trade. You can find amazing chartists, fundamental experts and technical analysis wizards on Twitter and beyond. Great analysts are valuable, can have an incredible feel for the market and it’s direction. They are great advisors.
Most of them STILL lose money as traders.
Like everyone else, they are emotional beings who fail when ego and money are on the line.
Analysis and trading are worlds apart with regards to the skill set and discipline required to be successful. A great trader is far less concerned with their analysis, understanding that they are likely to be wrong. They are far more concerned with maintaining a zen like emotional state while executing their trading plan, cutting losing trades quickly and letting winning trades run. A great trader is defined by one who has a plan and sticks to it, come hell or high water. They plan their losses without day dreaming about potential gains.
Success comes down to the trader, not the strategy that they employ to analyze trades. A good trader can make any analysis method work.
Analyzing an asset is generally about identifying a likely direction and making a general prediction about price action. Trading is a far more in depth pursuit. Not only does a trader have to accurately predict direction, they also have to manage a stop loss (not get stopped out before the trade goes their way), decide when to take profit, how much to risk on the position and when to enter. Traders lose money all of the time, even when their idea is “right” because they have a misplaced stop loss or take profit order, have entered at the wrong time, or have sized their position incorrectly to accommodate for volatility.
Eliminating ego and the inherent human compulsion to be “right” is an invaluable skill for a trader. Right and wrong are meaningless in trading - what matters is profit, which comes as a result of strong conviction in a strategy and plan and iron-clad ability to stick to it once the trade is active.
Great analysis is the first step to being a profitable trader, but is barely the tip of the iceberg. It is how you manage the risk based on that analysis that matters. Almost anyone can draw lines on a chart.
Paper trade your butt off, find a system that works, then stick to it without emotion. Gauge your performance over years, not days. Be a robot. Protect your money at all costs.
To my free members (I love you!) - paid members receive emails like this at least 2 times a week - sometimes up to 5. Every Thursday I chart any request sent by my paid members, often over 30 or 40 charts. It’s a ridiculous amount of work, but I do my best to add real value to anyone who subscribes. If you would like to join the paid side, you can do so for $15 a month here.
This will give you access to everything that I have ever written. If you cannot use a credit card, please contact me directly to pay with crypto by responding to this email or sending me a DM on Twitter.
What’s in this issue?

  1. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  2. The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. BullyESQ
  3. Trading Tip - Not “Till Death Do Us Part”
  4. Defining A Good Trade And Random Reinforcement
  5. Altcoin Charts
  6. Phemex Adds Zero Fee Spot Trading
  7. J.K. Rowling Vs. Crypto Twitter
  8. Recurring Buys Are Now Available On Voyager
  9. Fed Chair Jerome Powell On 60 Minutes
  10. Legacy Markets
  11. Quick Security Tips

Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I am currently flat with my trading account on Bitcoin, meaning I am not in a short term position. My long term holds remain untouched, of course. Here’s what I am watching, from large time frames down.
MONTHLY CHART
As I have mentioned each week, the last monthly candle was extremely bullish, engulfing the previous candle’s body entirely. The month before had a 3K+ wick down, also a signal of exceptional demand and buying interest. It is only May 19th and volume on May’s candle is almost as large as April’s entire candle. It will surely surpass it, meaning that volume and rising price are in agreement. This is very bullish.
Bulls want to see $9,243 hold as support on the monthly close in a couple of weeks. A break of $10,540 would be uber bullish, making a confirmed macro higher high. This would target the all time high and beyond - the bear market argument would be dead.
WEEKLY CHART
This looks bullish. Price flipped the 50 MA (blue line) to support, launching directly off of it after sitting there for 2 weekly candles. Last week’s candle broke the descending red resistance and this week’s candle has retested it as support (so far, the candle is NOT closed). Now price needs to flip the blue supply zone to support. That would be insanely bullish and looks somewhat likely after being tested 2 weeks in a row.
DAILY CHART
I never got my entry in the blue box! That’s a potential bullish breaker still - I would salivate over a chance to buy there once again, but I have a feeling that boat has sailed. For now, the local black descending resistance is the story on the daily chart. It needs to be flipped to support to continue the bullish trend. you can see that there’s a potential golden cross between the 50 (blue) and 200 (red) MAs on this time frame. This is often a lagging indicator (a result of the move up that has already happened), but still worth watching. Many people trade these as gospel.
4-HOUR CHART
The 4-Hour gives is a clear picture of what is happening on low time frames. Price is ranging in the blue channel. You can see how important the 50 MA has been on this time frame - a clear rejection at the black X and a few confirmed taps as support at the black checks. Any price action above this line is bullish on the 4-hour. Price has formed a local ascending support - bulls want to see that black line hold. The safest entry now is flipping the top of the range to support.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. BullyESQ
The Wolf of All Streets | Scott Melker Podcast
This is one of my favorite conversations that I have had on the podcast, and definitely the most entertaining to listen back to. BullyESQ is a Twitter Legend and the only anonymous person that I have interviewed thus far. In this whirlwind, which vacillated seamlessly between jokes and serious topics, we discussed the importance of privacy, why Bitcoin is not ideal for private transactions and privacy coins are better, Arrow Coin, the idea of “hategagement” on Twitter, the paradigm shift to working at home, why people are going to leave big cities, the failure of politicians, living in a post fact era, the benefits and downsides of Crypto Twitter, conspiracy theories and skepticism, Bill Gates, disillusionment with government as a result of the pandemic and much more.
Trading Tip - Not "Till Death Do Us Part"
Never be married to a trade.
It sounds like simple advice, but as a trader I am sure that you have experienced an emotional attachment to your current positions on countless occasions. It is human nature to always want to be right - that is why traders will reevaluate a trade and change the parameters once it is open, moving their stop loss down or taking profit too early.
There is no room for caring about being right in trading. In fact, it’s better to accept that you are wrong as quickly as possible, to prevent further losses and clear your mind for the next trade. That’s the secret sauce to longevity as a trader.
Many in this community are loyal community members of projects, which is amazing as an investor, but a curse as a trader as well. You cannot trade an asset that you are emotionally attached to.
Ask yourself the following questions.
If you are bearish on the asset you are trading, what would have to occur for you to cover your short and open a long? If you are long now, what conditions would invalidate your idea and cause you to change bias and flip short?
If you are presently sitting on the sidelines, what would it take for you to put your capital to work and open a new position?
It is essential that you always know the answers to these questions, because it allows you to objectively see the other side of the trade.
Defining A Good Trade And Random Reinforcement
The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary. - Alexander Elder
The idea raised in this quote is essential and often misunderstood. If not by how much money is made or lost, what defines a good trade and a bad trade?
A good trade should be defined as one where a trader planned their trade, traded their plan and managed their risk — those are all elements they can control. It is NOT defined by the outcome. 
A bad trade, on the other hand, is where a trader fails to follow their rules and executes trades against their better judgment. This is always going to be a bad trade even if it happens to be profitable. 
This leads to the idea of Random Reinforcement, which is a rarely discussed reason that many traders fail.
As defined by Investopedia, “Random Reinforcement” is:
Using arbitrary events to qualify (or disqualify) a hypothesis or idea; attributing skill or lack of skill to an outcome that is unsystematic in nature; finding support for positive or negative behaviors from outcomes that are inconsistent in nature—like the financial markets.
The market has a tendency to reward bad habits, while concurrently punishing positive behaviors, especially with a small sample set. Let’s take a theoretical example to display this principal.
Bob wants to leave his job and become a crypto trader. He sets aside some starting capital, follows the markets and the “big names” on twitter. He sees them talking about an altcoin, opens the chart and sees that price is rising fast. He buys, goes to take a shower, returns and sells for a quick profit. He does this again before lunch and strings together a few successful trades. Bob starts to feel confident that he is a talented trader. 
So what is the problem? Bob is trading without a system or a plan and is being fooled into believing that a successful outcome on a few random trades is indicative of likely success moving forward. The market has rewarded his bad behavior. We know how this story ends — Bob continues to make impulsive trades and eventually loses his capital. 
There is a flip side to this coin. Let’s say that Bob learns his lesson and spends months developing a trading plan, complete with risk management, proper portfolio allocations and trading rules. 
He identifies a trading opportunity that fits, takes the perfect entry and… stops out of his trade. He tries again. And again. He loses 7 times in a row. The market is punishing Bob for his good behavior. Bob starts to doubt his system and takes a high-risk trade that violates his system — and is successful. To his surprise, he tries this a second time and also makes money. Bob is now back to square one, trading without a system because the market has rewarded his bad behavior.
Through random reinforcement, the market has re-conditioned the way Bob approaches trading by distracting him away from his trading plan. He has allowed himself to be manipulated into an impulsive, high risk, revenge based trading approach. 
Even if Bob makes money in the latter scenario, he has taken a BAD TRADE.
The bottom line? Judge yourself by your process, not the results - you cannot control what price does after you take a trade. If you remain ironclad in executing your system, over a long period of time, you will be profitable.
Altcoin Charts
Altcoins have been a mixed bag for the past few weeks, but we have identified some amazing opportunities to make money trading them. I am often asked why I focus on ALT/BTC pairs and not ALT/USD pairs. The answer is simple. ALT/USD pairs largely rise when Bitcoin is making a move. While they are profitable trades, Bitcoin itself is almost always a better trade. This is clear when you check the ALT/BTC pair at the same time, which is usually suffering. The ALT/USD move is smoke and mirrors - simply sitting in BTC is almost always a better trade when the ALT/USD pair is doing well.
Every crypto trader wants to make money. Whether your goal is to stack sats or make dollars, the best way to do this is through increasing your Bitcoin holdings. Trading for an asset that trends up over time (Bitcoin) is a rare opportunity, not available in any other market. Earn more Bitcoin –> Bitcoin goes up –> cash out Bitcoin to USD. Most of the time, trading ALT/USD pairs is a more complicated and time consuming path to less gains. These pairs can give us valuable information, but I find them hard to trade more profitably than the BTC pairs.
Altcoins are RISKY TO TRADE. Even if you take a 1% portfolio risk on a trade, if you take 20 altcoins trades at once and Bitcoin moves, you have effectively taken 20% portfolio risk because they are ALL THE SAME when Bitcoin moves. Keep that in mind when reviewing charts and taking positions. Every single one of these charts and setups can fail in the blink of an eye. Nobody can tell the future. All I can do is show you what I am watching and why. I do NOT want you to take all of these setups. I want you to see how I chart and why I am looking at them and decide what works for you.
Also, paid members received a special newsletter on Friday, pointing out bullish divergences with RSI on many large cap coins. Those are STILL VALID. As I said, daily divs and reversals can take quite a while, and can see price drop further with RSI pressing up more. I will show you on TRX below. I am in ETH, BCH, TRX and LTC as a result, on the BTC pairs.
BAND/BTC
I have readjusted the descending resistance to accommodate fresh price action. Sometimes a clearer pattern develops with time. This COULD be a descending triangle, which people view incorrectly as a bearish pattern. According to Bukowski, it works best as a continuation pattern and breaks up in this situation 68% of the time. That said, significant movement below the pink line would be bearish. The safest entry here is a break through the descending white line. Stop loss probably safe with a bit of room below 102, the recent swing low.
FTM/BTC
FTM has been the gift that keep on giving. We are once again back to the key line on the chart, 47. At present, a few 4-hour candles have wicked below but it is holding as support. This could be a great entry for another leg up. It’s very easy to let this go with a clean break below. I would give it a bit of room, like 44 sats or so to make sure you don’t get stop hunted. Size your position accordingly. 42-43 is even better if you can stomach it. A safer entry would be a break of the descending white line and retest as support. That would really confirm an end of this local down trend. It’s all about choosing your level of risk and how much confirmation you desire.
MATIC/BTC
We have traded this pair a number of times since the low 160s, consistently profiting. I see no reason to stop now. MATIC formed a nice bull flag and has since broken up, also breaching the recent high at 227 and flipping to support (for now). I have been in this forever, adding on the way up. If I was looking at this fresh, I would ideally want to catch a retest of the bull flag as support. My bias would change to more neutral below 210 at this point. If you are aggressive, anything about 227 is still good, but this is likely to se price drop below at least temporarily.
To sum up - stop losses a few sats below 210, entry determined on your level of aggression. If it loses 210, I would love to find another entry on yet another bounce off of this age old ascending support in red. That has been the most consistent alt coin trade in a long time… it broke down for a few days, but largely has been an easy play on any touch for a bounce.
NANO/BTC
Unfortunately this has moved since I started looking at the setup this morning. Price is in a nice descending channel and made a beautiful move above the EQ (dashed center line) and above the local black resistance. I did not catch this either, was too busy writing! For now, I will look for a retest of either of the aforementioned lines for an entry. If I do not catch a drop, a break of the blue channel would be a huge signal that this is ready to truly reverse for good.
TRX/BTC
This bullish divergence continues to build. Nothing has changed for me here, I am still looking for a nice move up. You can also see that RSI is testing it’s own resistance (red line). A breakout on a pattern on RSI is usually followed by a breakout by price. My stops are below 150 on this, to account for potential movement down while the divergence continues to build. If the div becomes invalid, I will exit because my premise will be blown. Similar thing on LTC, BCH and ETH.
XTZ/BTC
This seems to have retested resistance as support successfully, so I am expecting continued movement up. My stops are below the lower white line, my entry was the top white line. EZPZ.
ZIL/BTC
My bids are still between 94-96, as discussed on Friday. I want to see a retest of the blu range as support, but it’s possible it has been front run. If I fill, my immediate target is the black line, with much higher targets above on a break. I would likely be out long before those hit, because it would take a true alt season for these setups to reach their full potential.
Phemex Adds Zero Fee Spot Trading
Bitcoin Futures Exchange|Phemex
Phemex has recently launched their spot trading services, and offer offers 0 trading fees under a convenient membership rate:
- Premium Spot Exchange users will be subjected to ZERO trading fees
- All current and new users will receive a 7-day free Premium Membership Trial
- Full Premium Membership rates range from 9.99 USDT/Month, 19.99 USDT/3 Months, or 69.99 USDT/Year
- Phemex Derivatives Trading features remain unchanged
Moreover, Phemex now accepts deposits in USDT, ETH, XRP, and LINK, and offers hourly withdrawals under for premium members. Read more here:
Please help me experience Cryptocurrency Spot Trading with Zero Fees on Phemex. Anyone with a Premium account can send me a free 30-day Premium Trial.
J.K. Rowling Vs. Crypto Twitter
What a disaster.
As all of you likely know, J.K. Rowling, famed author of the Harry Potter series, showed a superficial interest in Bitcoin on Twitter, casually asking someone to explain it to her. This elicited thousands of responses from the likes of Elon Musk down to accounts like @cryptotrollbot92837565. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon, either to genuinely try to explain the concept to her or to troll her, as is tradition on Crypto Twitter. The end result was a missed opportunity for the crypto community to shine a positive light on Bitcoin. In fact, it had the opposite and predictable effect of making Bitcoin look like a joke, with an even worse community supporting it.
No surprises here.
Once again, the bad actors, trolls and 4chan boys that are a small but vocal part of the crypto world ended up ruining it for the rest of us.
J.K. Rowling
Morning, all. People are calling each other simps in my mentions and a fake JK Rowling account has made a purchase of Bitcoin. How’s your Saturday shaping up?
It is time for the crypto community to grow up and get out of it’s own way. Mainstream adoption will only come when the world takes Bitcoin and it’s community seriously. This train wreck with J.K. Rowling makes that seem unlikely in the near future.
Recurring Buys Are Now Available On Voyager
Voyager | App Features
It’s official. Recurring Buys are now available on Voyager!
You can now automatically invest in crypto without the stress of timing the market. Set your oder for daily, weekly, or monthly, and dollar cost-average over 30+ tokens and Bitcoin. This is an amazing additional feature. Remember, there are zero fees for trading on Voyager and you gain compounding interest on your holdings.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell On 60 Minutes
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was on 60 minutes on Sunday and his comments were truly eye-opening. I have included the transcript in its entirety (link below) - I both watched and read it a few times to try to get a feel for his true take on the economy and the present situation with COVID-19. I have pulled a few excerpts below. This entire interview is basically an advertisement for Bitcoin.
Full Transcript: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's 60 Minutes interview on economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic - CBS News
This one knocked the wind out of me. 40% of Americans who make 40K or less a year are out of work. That’s an astounding number and tells the true story of the economic impact of this down turn. The stock market is up and the wealthy are insulated. The poor and lower middle class, as always, are bearing the burnt of this disaster.
PELLEY: In terms of the workforce, Mr. Chairman, who is getting hurt the worst by this downturn?
POWELL: The people who’re getting hurt the worst are the most recently hired, the lowest paid people. It’s women to an extraordinary extent. We’re actually releasing a report tomorrow that shows that, of the people who were working in February who were making less than $40,000 per year, almost 40% have lost their jobs in the last month or so. Extraordinary statistic. So that’s who’s really bearing the brunt of this.
When addressing the tactics of the Fed, he admitted that they have “simply flooded the system with money.” He explained how they actually “print” money, for those who are not aware of how it actually works. This is so insane it makes my brain hurt.
PELLEY: Fair to say you simply flooded the system with money?
POWELL: Yes. We did. That’s another way to think about it. We did.
PELLEY: Where does it come from? Do you just print it?
POWELL: We print it digitally. So as a central bank, we have the ability to create money digitally. And we do that by buying Treasury Bills or bonds for other government guaranteed securities. And that actually increases the money supply. We also print actual currency and we distribute that through the Federal Reserve banks.
In the following section, he describes how much larger the financial stimulus and bailouts are than they were in the “Great Recession” of 2008. Keep in mind that the stimulus packages and bailouts of that era were highly politicized and opposed by the party that is presently in power. He touches on the fact that they are “good companies” that had sound financial conditions in February, which does not address the wild mismanagement of funds and buybacks that put them in a situation with 0 available cash to sustain through even a week of crisis. Either he has cognitive dissonance or is a bold faced liar. Or both?
PELLEY: In terms of size, Mr. Chairman, how does what the Fed is doing right now compare to the unprecedented action it took in 2008?
POWELL: So the things we’re doing now are substantially larger. The asset purchases that we’re doing are a multiple of the programs that were done during the last crisis. And it’s very different this time. In the last crisis, the problems were in the financial system. So they were providing support for the banking system. Here, really, the problems are in what we call the real economy, actual companies that make and sell goods and services. And what’s happening to them is that many of them are closed or just not having any revenue.
And we’re trying to do what we can to get them through this period where they’re perfectly good companies that have had, you know, sound financial condition as recently as February, but now they have no business. And they have fixed costs. So we’re trying to help them get through that period.
The fact that people even have to ask THIS question is very telling:
PELLEY: And for people who wonder whether they should take their money out of the bank and put it in a mattress, you tell them what?
POWELL: There’s no need to do that. No need at all. The banks have been strong, they’ve been fine. There’s absolutely no need to do that.
PELLEY: There’s no worry there?
POWELL: No.
This one blew my mind. Powell states over and over again how strong the economy was before the coronavirus pandemic. In this part he states that the time to deal with the debt is when the economy is strong, unemployment is low and economic activity is high. He just described the last few years. Why were they NOT dealing with this MASSIVE problem when the economy was “strong?” We learned nothing from the past financial crises.
PELLEY: What we’re seeing is the federal government borrowing trillions, upon trillions of dollars to try to dig us out of this hole. How long can that go on?
POWELL: Well, if you take a longer perspective, the U.S. has been spending more than it’s been taking in for some time. And that’s something we’re going to have to deal with. The time to deal with that, the time to get on a sustainable fiscal path, which really just means that the economy is growing faster than the debt, and that means you’ve got to control the growth of the debt – the time to do that is when the economy is strong. When unemployment is low, when economic activity is high, that’s when you deal with that problem. This is not the time to prioritize that concern. 
The United States is the world’s reserve currency. The dollar is the world’s reserve currency. And we have the ability to borrow at low rates. We have the ability to service that debt. And I would say this is the time when we can use that strength to our longer run benefit. It is true that deficits are going to be big for a couple of years here. And that we’ll have to deal with that. The time to deal with that though is when we’re through this recovery. 
Here is the coup de grâce.
PELLEY: Has the Fed done all it can do?
POWELL: Well, there’s a lot more we can do. We’ve done what we can as we go. But I will say that we’re not out of ammunition by a long shot. No, there’s really no limit to what we can do with these lending programs that we have. So there’s a lot more we can do to support the economy, and we’re committed to doing everything we can as long as we need to.
The Fed will never run out of ammo. They have the power of endless money printing. They will manipulate the market until the end of time. There’s no limit to these lending programs.
Dare I say… buy Bitcoin!?
Legacy Markts
I closed my stock shorts. The market remains irrational, so I see no compulsion to bang my head against the wall trying to figure it out as a trader. I made amazing trades on Boeing and Berkshire Hathaway on this last round of shorts (my 4th since the top), lost small on SPY and broke about even on Tesla. Significant net gain. If you have been following, you know that I have been shorting repeatedly since the top, with huge moves before the bounce. My general bias is still for another significant dip, but I can’t find a reason to actively bet on that at the moment.
The market is completely and utterly disconnected from the economy, with GDP shrinking at a historic rate and record levels of unemployment, surpassing the Great Depression. Irrational indeed. Further reminder that the stock market is not the economy - rather, it’s a huge casino that is fixed in favor of the house and the house’s friends.
As you know, I continue to automatically invest, buying Amazon, SPY and select retirement targeted mutual funds on a regular schedule regardless of price. That’s what investors do. As a result, I have been buying the dip repeatedly. I have a lot of cash still on the sidelines. As you know, I balance my portfolio with the following simple formula.
70% investments, 15% trading, 15% cash.
At present, my trading stack is fully in cash. Also, you will recall that I sold some of my investments near the top, largely to take profit and not because of any major fear of what was coming over the long run. As a result, I am currently 40% in cash. I may have completely missed the bottom (I still don’t believe that), but prices are still WAY below where I sold. Also - Warren Buffett is sitting on an increasingly large pile of cash, after exiting Goldman Sachs. That makes me feel like I am on the right side of the market. Let’s take a look at a few charts, although it’s important to understand that technical analysis is somewhat useless in the face of unlimited money printing and market manipulation.
AMZN (AMAZON)
What is there to say about Amazon? They are fundamentally strong and will be remain an essential business with or without a global meltdown. Price broke up from the ascending channel and now is breaking up from a local bull flag. Nothing about this looks bearish. I attempted to make a “short case” for a subscriber last week who specifically wanted to short, but it was a tough one to make. There was a potential diamond top, which has now failed. Amazon looks bullish - I don’t even bother trading it, I just buy it when I can and hold.
DIS (DISNEY)
I am NOT in this trade or planning to take it, but for those who are trading this stock it is definitely worth looking at this chart. The blue ascending line represented a long uptrend that started in 2014 and was broken during the market crash. It is currently being retested as resistance for the first time. The ideal entry for a position is the first retest of a line from the other side - in this case, this looks like a textbook short. Price is currently above the 200 MA on the weekly, but the candle has just started. Failing to hold that red line on the weekly close would be bearish as well.
If I was going to short this, I would place my stop above the weekly high (near $119). The target of a short here is way down - likely the previous bottom from the last drop.
From a fundamental standpoint, it is important to note that Disney parks (at least in America) are attempting to reopen soon. You have to ask yourself if you think a) this will be a success b) if you think people will go back to the movies (a huge part of their business) and c) if people will take Disney cruises (small part of their business).
NFLX (NETFLIX)
I am up a few hundred percent on Netflix and it continues to rage. I have posted this chart countless times over the past few months, even years. Price broke up from a massive bull pennant (before the crash, which temporarily sent it back down). It then broke up, took out the all time high and has since retested it and continued up. If I was not in this already, I would salivate for an entry around $423 if you can get it, although the train may have left the station for good. It is hard to predict where this is headed now, as it’s in all time high price discovery. Set your alarms in case this comes back down to earth.
SPY
For those that don’t know, SPY is an ETF (exchange traded fund) that tracks the S&P and is arguably the best way to trade the general market. Once again, this chart is confounding, thanks to money printing and irrational exuberance.
Price is STILL currently at a crossroads. I would not feel confident on either side of a position here. Price has potentially flipped the 61.8% Fibonacci level to support, which would be bullish. It is also trying to flip the local high to support at $294.88. That would also be bullish. Volume has decreased on the entirety of the move up, which is normally viewed as bearish… that said, volume seems to be normalizing here, if not increasing, indicating that people may be gaining confidence in the market once again. That’s usually a good time to pull the rug, but that’s a topic for another day! I still see this as a golden pocket retrace of the move down, which is a classic short. But I closed my position, because I am really not certain and don’t need to be in. I was net long regardless, as I have been averaging into SPY since the mid 2000s.
XAG (SILVER)
I know that quite a few of you have been riding this with me for the past few weeks, since roughly $15. Patience is paying off, as silver looks absolutely amazing. The EQ (equilibrium, center dashed line) of the green channel is currently being broken, but keep in mind this is a MONTHLY chart and the candle is far from finished. You have to apply your TA to the appropriate time frame. Holding above $17 should send price to the top of the channel, around $21. There is strong resistance at $18.196 on the way, which needs to be flipped to support. At this point, any entry above $17 assuming that EQ holds looks good with a trip to the top of the channel.
Not to get too excited, but I have no intention of selling this is the near future. That huge candle with wick down that tested the old channel as support looks like a true bottom. We could see silver continue to rise for years to come.
Quick Security Tips
I know - I never stop harping on security. But that’s because it is IMPORTANT! Do not wait to be hacked or sim swapped like me to take it seriously. Here are a few very quick tips, once again, to make sure you are safe. There are hundreds more to offer, but these are easy to do NOW.

  • Use multiple phones for safe 2FA. Never use SMS authentication, use Google authenticator. Have it on a separate phone, not attached to your phone number or the internet.
  • Use a password manager (that has it’s own security and 2FA) to generate strong, random passwords. Never repeat a password.
  • Use a different, anonymous email address for every single exchange. I prefer multiple proton mail addresses. I use each one only once. They all have 2FA on them.
  • Use a hardware wallet.
  • PROTECT YOUR SIM CARD AND PHONE NUMBER. If you are in America, absolutely switch to EFANI for your phone service. Details are in the link below. They will protect your SIM and insure any losses - even thought you will never be sim swapped.
Secure & Private Cellphone Service | EFANI
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.
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