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The Wolf Den #524 - Advice From The Best

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June 17 · Issue #524 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
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In This Issue:
  1. Advice From The Best
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Legacy Markets
  4. BlockFi Funds Are SAFU. Stop The FUD.
  5. GBTC Discount Hits 34%
  6. Bitcoin Mining Is Perfect For Nigeria
  7. In Case You Missed It
  8. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
It’s Friday, a great time to take your mind off of the shit show that is every market on the planet. Actually, just the entire planet in general.
Get some sun, touch some grass, kiss your spouse, hug a puppy, ride a unicorn or do a Wordle. I don’t know what you’re into.
Instead of writing about all of the problems in the world, I decided to give all of you, and myself, a break.
Today, I am going to share a few lessons from one of the greats. Sit with these ideas over the weekend, let them marinate in your mind and age like a fine steak or a delicious wine. It’s a good refresh, which is something we probably all need.
Let’s go.
Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the greatest investors ever. 
He is the notorious king of taking high-conviction bets at sizes that we can only (wet) dream of. When everyone else is puking or high on greed, Druckenmiller is taking your money. He has amassed billions as the founder, president, and chairman of Duquesne Capital. Most notably, he and the Soros family “broke the bank of England” in 1992 by shorting the British pound. That one trade hit for over $1B in profits.
Druckenmiller is still as sharp as ever. A recent hour-long interview surfaced on YouTube. The video has less than 200,000 views, so it is absurdly under-appreciated. I watched the whole thing and suggest you do as well. You can find the video HERE. I took notes. Below were all of my favorite points.
Sizing Is Everything
People asked me what I learned from George Soros. I thought going there I would learn what made the Yen and the Deutsche Mark go up and down but instead, I learned that sizing is 70 to 80 percent of the equation. It’s not whether you are right or wrong, it’s about how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong.
Learn To Love Investing Or Leave
If you’re not really passionate, if you don’t love this stuff, go do something else. I’ve hired guys with 50 or 60 points higher than me who stink in my business. 
Understand The Macro
The next four or five years are going to be tailored to the skillset that worked for me in the 80’s and 90’s, which was macro chaos. I would encourage new investors to learn all the asset categories and how they integrate. I would certainly recommend looking into blockchain very deeply and the disruption it may make. Do not invest in the present, the present does not move stock prices, change moves them. I want you to try and envision a different world a year and a half from now and where these security prices will trade then.
Bull Market Geniuses
There are a lot of bull market geniuses around. It’s not that they love the game, they love winning, but they were surfing with a hurricane behind their back. They were given nice waves, but they may become discouraged. I know a lot more people are investing now, but I don’t think it’s so great if the story doesn’t end well.
The Crypto Outlook
Everything Charlie Munger says I am sympathetic to. Everything that Bill Miller says I am sympathetic to. It’s a movie that has yet to be played out. I will be very surprised if blockchain isn’t a real force in our economy say five or ten years from now.
Have a great weekend.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
The weekly close on Sunday will be extremely telling and important. We want to see 20K hold, and ideally the 200 MA around 22K hold as well.
That is the whole ball game for now.
DAILY CHART
The community was excited about the beautiful bullish hammer two days ago. Not anymore. Yesterday’s candle filled the wick and invalidated the reversal signal. We will see what today brings.
Legacy Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for Jun. 17, 2022 - Bloomberg
Key events this week:
  • US Conference Board leading index, industrial production, Friday
What are the next levels for the pound? UK is the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. Click here to participate anonymously.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.1% as of 10:35 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the S&P 500 rose 1%
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.1%
Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
  • The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0525
  • The Japanese yen fell 2% to 134.85 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 6.7053 per dollar
  • The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2298
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.20%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 1.64%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.44%
Commodities
  • Brent crude rose 0.7% to $120.59 a barrel
  • Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,850.08 an ounce
BlockFi Funds Are SAFU. Stop The FUD.
Zac Prince
I’ve been seeing a lot of speculation about BlockFi’s risk management practices that I want to address. While our policy is to not comment on specific counterparties, we are committed to providing as much transparency as possible, and it’s important to know the following:
Zac Prince made it abundantly clear that the FUD surrounding BlockFi is false and that customer funds are safe. Without saying the words, he effectively admitted that 3AC was a huge customer and that BlockFi acted quickly to liquidate them.
There will inevitably be more to the tale and contagion of 3AC, but at least this part has a happy ending for now.
GBTC Discount Hits 34%
GBTC premium hits -34% all-time low as crypto funds ‘puke out’ tokens
If ever there was proof that we need a Bitcoin Spot ETF in the United States, then here you have it. Since many investors cannot buy Bitcoin in their investment accounts, they use GBTC. And man, that sucks for them right now.
Dylan LeClair 🟠
Shares of $GBTC are now 66.9% lower than they were at the peak of 2017 despite $BTC trading 5% higher.

Make sure to thank Mr. Gensler for the protection everyone. https://t.co/Q1cAw8hBtR
Institutions were excited to trade this when they had the advantage of the premium and could make free money. Now the tides have turned and we can see who’s swimming naked. And it’s everybody who owns GBTC.
Bitcoin Mining Is Perfect For Nigeria
Bitcoin Mining Could Be The Answer To Nigeria’s Inflationary Crisis
This is a great long read about the potential for Bitcoin mining in Nigeria. I found it fascinating and worth sharing.
In Case You Missed It
What Will Happen If Bitcoin Falls Below $20K?
Yesterday’s roundtable was explosive. To Maxi Or Not To Maxi? That is the question.
My Recommended Platforms, Tools And Podcast Sponsors
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Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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