View profile

The Wolf Den #523 - Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger, Depression

Revue
 
 
June 16 · Issue #523 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
Get up to a $5,000 bonus in USDT when you sign up using my link to BitgetBitget is the best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage, world’s largest crypto copy trading platform, and the official partner of Juventus Football Club. They are also offering a 15% discount on trading fees!
In This Issue:
  1. Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger, Depression
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Legacy Markets
  4. The Greatest Investors Are Adamant
  5. Exchanges Are Sizing Each Other Up
  6. Bill Gates Is Not A Crypto Fan
  7. Contagion Or FUD?
  8. Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins | Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier
  9. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Have you ever seen the “Wall Street Cheat Sheet?” It’s the visual representation of emotions that a typical investor experiences as prices rise and fall. On the downside, there’s anxiety, denial, panic, capitulation, anger, and depression. Do any of these sound familiar?
Now I want you to ask yourself - which of these categories best describes your emotional feelings today? And also, which of these resonates with you the most?
To be honest, all of these descriptors hold some merit, but one word describes the current market perfectly.
MAYHEM.
bUt ScOtT, tHaT wOrD iSn’T oN tHe LiSt?!
Yes, thank you, but have you happened to notice the level of chaos that we are currently experiencing?
We have the Luna blow up, Celsius on the brink of collapse, 3AC getting a margin call, and MicroStrategy (wrongfully) in question. There are NFT goblins and dickbutts screaming at each other. Oh and I forgot to mention that Jack Dorsey is working on Web5 and some people think Ethereum is broken.
I dare not even take a wild guess at what platform will collapse next.
It feels like someone lit the traveling circus on fire and the freak show is running amuck, creating havoc all over town. Have you ever tried to stop the bearded lady and strong man from stealing your car? Not easy.
Are we allowed to say freak show anymore?
Anyway.
WTF is going on?
There is no sense of normalcy. Sanity has been tossed out the window.
Here’s a quote I overuse, but is once again relevant. Perhaps now more than ever. I will repeat it 3x because that’s how many times I want you to read it.
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
It is mayhem. But you do not have to fall victim. The market is inflicting pain, and any dramatic and heroic move that you attempt to make is likely to be your death blow. Once the market settles, we will better know what emotional phase we are actually in. We are likely at “panic,” heading into “capitulation.” Although perhaps it is already “anger.” Hell, I hope this is depression.
All you have to do right now is… nothing. Survive.
While some bad actors and business practices are being exposed, nothing has fundamentally changed about Bitcoin or Ethereum. Unfortunately, since the tide has gone out, we are seeing that a lot more of us were swimming naked than we thought.
The tide will come back in, it always does.
Make sure to keep you pants on.
Good luck out there. Just keep your head above water.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
I did a somewhat thorough dive into the charts yesterday, so not much to discuss.
Yesterday’s daily candle was a beautiful hammer, with a long wick down and small green body. This is a reversal signal, especially when paired with major volume which we had. And at 20K support.
The problem? The world is on fire.
We need to see follow through with a green candle today, which is looking shaky in the first half of the day. A big red candle today would invalidate yesterday’s hopeful hammer.
Legacy Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for Jun. 16, 2022 - Bloomberg
The market’s first reaction to a Fed meeting is usually “wrong.” At the last raise, we saw markets pump like crazy for the day, before dumping hard and continuing down. Yesterday we once again saw markets close green before going red on futures. Will this time be the same? Maybe.
From the article above:
“Index futures signaled a rout in US stocks on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled willingness to accept a recession and rise in unemployment in its resolve to contain elevated inflation.
September contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gauges slumped at least 2.4% each, with traders giving up their initial optimism over Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that super-sized rate hikes won’t be the norm. Renewed concerns about the impact of monetary tightening on economic output and asset valuations sparked a rout in Treasuries and sent the dollar up for the sixth time in seven days. European stocks headed for a 16-month low and Chinese Internet shares dropped in premarket New York trading. 
After the Fed raised interest rates by the most since 1994, Powell indicated a monetary stance similar to that of Paul Volcker, who broke the back of elevated inflation four decades ago but paid a price in the form of soaring unemployment and a credit squeeze. Powell’s comments signaled the Fed’s resolve to continue on an aggressive path of rate hikes – and that bond yields and equity risk premiums must rise to adjust to the new reality.
“It hasn’t taken long for the post-Fed bounce in stocks to fade, and given the gloomier outlook for growth, that is hardly surprising,” Chris Beauchamp, the chief market analyst at IG Group in London, wrote in a note. “We are still living in the same world we were 24 hours ago, one where growth is slowing, earnings are still falling and prices keep on rising. This is not a great environment for stocks.””
Key events this week:
  • Bank of England rate decision, Thursday.
  • US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Thursday.
  • Bank of Japan policy decision, Friday.
  • Eurozone CPI, Friday.
  • US Conference Board leading index, industrial production, Friday
What are the next levels for the pound? UK is the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. Click here to participate anonymously.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.9% as of 10:17 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the S&P 500 fell 2.3%
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8%
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.1%
Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
  • The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0414
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 132.76 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan fell 0.7% to 6.7179 per dollar
  • The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.2111
Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 3.39%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 1.79%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.50%
Commodities
  • Brent crude fell 0.4% to $118.03 a barrel
  • Spot gold was little changed
The Greatest Investors Are Adamant
Warren Buffet bought his first stock in 1942, during the thick of World War 2. Then came the Korean War, Polio, the Vietnam War, Smallpox, the Cold War, 9/11, the War on Iraq, 2008, Covid, and so on.
One thing remained true through all of the hardships above - Warren Buffet never sold. All long-term investors need is a belief in America, the ability to ignore the headlines, and the understanding that progress is inevitable. $10,000 invested in 1942 in an index fund and continually reinvested would be worth $51 million today. This is roughly a 509,900% increase or 5,100x gain. Of course, inflation plays a significant role here, but the point still stands.
Will A Meltdown Come?
Recent 21st-century investors have been calling for a meltdown of epic proportions, citing anomalies such as Ukraine, Russian sanctions, COVID, Monkeypox, China lockdowns, money printing, etc. Everything and anything can be used as evidence for the inevitable death of the market. Every time the crypto market corrects, you will see headlines including “nightmare, a market bubble, bitcoin is dead, growing fear, and panic.” Seeing your portfolio balance drop is painful, but the market has literally always recovered. Dips are for buying.
Black Swans In Finance
These “black swan” events will always happen - the important lesson here is for investors to remain adamant. Adamant is defined as: refusing to be persuaded or to change one’s mind. Anyone can do it, regardless of skill, IQ, or status. The most profitable investors are immovable, unshakeable, and uncompromising, through hell and high water, war, or disease. They remain certain there will be better days ahead in the long term and that their investments will continue to grow with time in the market.
Exchanges Are Sizing Each Other Up
Binance CEO throws shade at exchange rivals over layoffs | CryptoSlate
Coinbase just announced an 18% layoff, a phenomenon that is happening across the board at exchanges. Meanwhile, Binance is looking to hire for 2,000 new positions.
CZ 🔶 Binance
It was not easy saying no to Super bowl ads, stadium naming rights, large sponsor deals a few months ago, but we did.

Today, we are hiring for 2000 open positions for #Binance. https://t.co/n24nrUik8O
CZ threw a bit of shade at his competitors, clearly stating that his decision to focus on product and customers and not on hype and marketing has been to their benefit now that we are in the depths of crypto winter.
Bill Gates Is Not A Crypto Fan
Bill Gates: Crypto Is 100% Based on Greater Fool Theory — 'I'm Not Involved in That' – Featured Bitcoin News
As a technologist and innovator, I would expect that Bill Gates would be more likely than most billionaires to be a fan of Bitcoin. I am not particularly surprised that he is dismissive of Bored Apes!
This is barely news, it does not matter what any individual thinks, and he has the right to his opinion.
I would love to debate him on the “Greater Fool Theory.”
Contagion Or FUD?
BlockFi customers concerned it may have lent too much bitcoin to 3AC
Separating fact from fiction and reasonable concern from unsubstantiated fear has become nearly impossible in the crypto market.
BlockFi customers are concerned about the relationship of the company with 3AC, which is rumored to be in major financial trouble. This rumor is also yet to be confirmed.
The article is interesting, but seems to all be based on conjecture with little known facts.
Worth a read, but not worth a meaningful reaction until more is confirmed.
Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins | Ledger CEO Pascal Gauthier
Podcast - The Wolf of All Streets
Are you storing your coins in a software app on your phone? They are as good as gone. Chairman and CEO of Ledger, Pascal Gauthier, explains why. We dive deep on crypto security and the importance of education, explain why you don’t actually need to understand the tech of Bitcoin to get involved safely, and how we in Bitcoin are building a brighter, happier world.
Sponsored by VAULD
My Recommended Platforms, Tools And Podcast Sponsors
Proud sponsor of The Wolf Den Newsletter. The world’s biggest crypto copy trading platform, up to a $3000 bonus for signing up.
Mining for everyone! You can buy an ASIC and have it set up at a destination of your choice by them, and you only pay the electricity cost. Absolutely awesome.
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought.
Rewards Code: WOLF
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
I have chosen Bullish as a sponsor for both my podcast and livestreams! They are an awesome exchange that incorporates all of the benefits of both centralized and decentralized exchanges. Your keys, your coins, but with a robust order book, complex orders and deep liquidity.
Vauld are sponsoring both my podcast and livestreams and have become my personal platform of choice for holding coins and earning yield. I love their rates (12.68% on Stables and 6.7% on BTC and ETH) and their buy the dip feature that automatically buys for me when price drops.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO
Did you enjoy this issue?
In order to unsubscribe, click here.
If you were forwarded this newsletter and you like it, you can subscribe here.
Powered by Revue