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The Wolf Den #509 - If I Had Only _______, I Would _______.

May 27 · Issue #509 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
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In This Issue:
  1. If I Had Only ____, I Would ____.
  2. Altcoin Charts
  3. Legacy Markets
  4. How The Pendulum Swings
  5. a16z Ups The Ante
  6. Cathie Wood Won’t Stop
  7. My Recommended Platforms And Tools
If I Had Only ________ I Would _______.
If I had only held, I would have made a fortune. If I had only sold when I planned to, I would have made money instead of losing it. If I had only taken that job, I would be rich by now. If I had only had the guts to talk to her, we would be together and I would not be lonely.
This thinking is the enemy of success, especially as a trader.
Nobody has a crystal ball. Nobody can see the future. We all “take profit too early” and stop out before price reverses. Comparing your results to a theoretical idea of what could have been impedes progress and leaves you existing in an emotional limbo, handicapped by the fear of another wrong decision or living in the past that can’t be altered.
You have NO IDEA WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED if you had made a different decision in life.
It happens. No use crying over spilled milk. The faster you get over your “mistake,” the faster you can move on in a proper mindset and make a better decision in the future.
People have a natural tendency to compare their results to the best possible situation, after the fact. This is a useless and damaging exercise, because it implies that perfection is the only expected and acceptable result.
I have talked to traders who are up many multiples on their portfolio but down a few percent from their all-time high. They almost always complain that they are “down,” because they are comparing their performance to the best possible outcome. Is this you? It has certainly been me.
I think about what could have been if I had sold everything in November all the time. It’s human nature.
That’s not how this works.
Be honest with yourself. If you could do it all over again, would you really have sold at the exact top and rebought at the exact bottom? Just because the possibility of perfection existed does not mean that you would have actually executed. In fact, there’s almost no way that you would have timed everything perfectly.
Comparing your outcome to the best possible scenario in hindsight makes no sense, but we all do It. It’s a deeply ingrained psychological phenomenon.
As traders and investors, we can never expect a straight line to the moon. There are always peaks and valleys, moments when we are scared and think the party is over, and times when we believe that the festival will never end. That’s why every chart looks the way that it does, even in an uptrend – because that chart is just a visualization of human emotion and behavior.
This is why you should be an investor first, check your portfolio less, and ride the slow wave to inevitable long-term success.
You are not perfect. I am not perfect. You have no idea what will happen after you execute or exit a trade or investment. Be content with your gains, learn from your mistakes and move on with a clear head.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is working on its 9th red week in a row, something that has never remotely happened before in its short history. Pretty crazy.
The Dow Jones (below in Legacy Markets) appears to be reversing its 8 week trend, so it would be wonderful to see Bitcoin rally over the weekend and do the same. Not saying that will happen.
Bitcoin is still trading at the key support, between $28,600 and $28,800. The more times it is tested, the weaker it theoretically becomes.
To expand on the idea of support weakening, you can think of a bouncing ball. Each time it bounces, it goes a bit lower before eventually flattening out. That’s what we have for now with Bitcoin. A flat support bottom and lower highs. This is how a descending triangle is formed, although here we really do not have the clear flat bottom.
This does not have to play out - we want to see a big move to the upside and for support to hold. But it would be dishonest for me not to share the idea, since clearly this support is being tested repeatedly.
We still have more potential bullish divergence on the daily and other time frames (not shown), so it could go either way.
That’s the reality - we are chopping sideways at support, so it’s hard to make any grand predictions.
Altcoin Charts
I do NOT share signals in this section. I share setups and charts that I am watching, in an effort to help show you how I view a chart and what criteria would be necessary for me to consider taking a trade. NEVER blindly buy something because it is listed in a newsletter or posted on twitter. You need to have a plan when you enter a trade. These are just ideas, and are almost always “if, then” scenarios. If a certain set of things happen, then I would consider a trade.
Altcoins are seemingly capitulating for the 3rd, 4th or 5th time. I have lost count. This once again has me interested in adding small amounts to my long term holdings in select coins. I am buying for the very long term, not for tomorrow. So what happens in the coming weeks and months is irrelevant.
Please read that again. I am not telling you to buy anything. We are in a bear market. The trend is down. It all depends on your system and strategy and tolerance for pain.
The reason I am buying? Because I am seeing a lot of fear and panic, there are potential bullish divergences all over the place, markets are oversold, and I think that prices will eventually be much higher than they are today. Stocks have bounced all week.
Here are a few examples. Note, they can all easily fail with one small Bitcoin hiccup. But this Is what I am looking at.
Potential bullish divergence (needs clear elbow up on RSI) coming out of oversold, at key support.
Potential bullish divergence (needs clear elbow up on RSI) coming out of oversold, at key support.
Potential bullish divergence (needs clear elbow up on RSI) coming out of oversold, at key support.
Potential bullish divergence (needs clear elbow up on RSI) coming out of oversold, at key support.
Legacy Markets
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for May. 27, 2022 - Bloomberg
Stocks are rallying this week while crypto continues to crash. Everyone wanted a “decoupling,” but I am not sure that this is what they were hoping for.
The Dow Jones had a nice reversal candle last Friday and has done nothing but go up since. This has been a green week, with 4 consecutive days of gains. I am one of the few people that was calling for this relief and bounce, simply because sentiment was so far in the dumps and the Dow was down 8 weeks in a row, something that had not happened since 1923.
As you can see, this week has a huge bullish engulfing candle, assuming it closes somewhat like this, it would be a signal of a bullish reversal. It would be nice to see Bitcoin also end its 8 week losing streak.
Here are some key events to watch this week:
  • US core PCE price index; personal income and spending; wholesale inventories; University of Michigan consumer sentiment Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% as of 10:20 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2%
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.3%
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
  • The euro was little changed at $1.0730
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 127.04 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan rose 0.5% to 6.7316 per dollar
  • The British pound was little changed at $1.2612
  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 2.75%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.99%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 1.96%
  • Brent crude rose 0.7% to $118.23 a barrel
  • Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,859.20 an ounce
How The Pendulum Swings
I often use the idea of a pendulum when referring to the sentiment swings of the market. Typically, this figure of speech measures things like fear and greed or inflows and outflows. The problem we are facing now is that the things that many thought were immune to the pendulum are proving to be susceptible to backward swings.
Nothing is immune. Some of our most trusted platforms, people, and protocols have unhinged. Here is a non-comprehensive list of what’s come under fire: staking, yield platforms, web3 gaming, CEXs (Celsius, BlockFi), algorithmic stablecoins, fully backed stablecoins, NFTs, governance tokens, CEX tokens, DAOs, metaverses, IPOs, ICOs, layer 1s, mining stocks, lending platforms, traders, ETH Maxis, Bitcoin maxis, Raoul Pal, Anthony Pompliano, and myself! 
My point is simple. When the market dips, the shine wears off of everything, and that is often completely unwarranted. When the market returns, the shine will return to the assets and entities that are most valuable. The pendulum always swing back.
a16z Ups The Ante
Today we are announcing a16z crypto Fund 4. We’ve raised $4.5B to invest in promising web3 founders and startups, bringing our total crypto funds raised to more than $7.6B. 💪
a167 is relentless. Their fourth foray into the crypto space is a fund twice the size of the last one and entirely focused on web3.
Even in a bear market, they were able to raise 4.5 BILLION DOLLARS to invest in low caps and web3 projects. That should tell you all you need to know about institutional interest in the crypto space.
We think we are now entering the golden era of web3. Programmable blockchains are sufficiently advanced, and a diverse range of apps have reached tens of millions of users. More importantly, a massive wave of world-class talent has entered web3 over the last year. They are brilliant and passionate and want to build a better internet.
Cathie Wood Won't Stop
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Files for Another Bitcoin Spot ETF
The push for a spot Bitcoin ETF is alive and well. The prize huge, so firms are working their asses off to have their fund secure SEC approval. Cathie Wood has just filed for another Bitcoin spot ETF - ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF - giving the SEC until January 24, 2023 to decide. The Bitcoin spot ETF will be the largest Bitcoin event ever. It will happen eventually.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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