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The Wolf Den #325 - The Crowd Rarely Gets What It Wants

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September 9 · Issue #325 · View online
The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter
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September 7th was supposed to be a massively bullish day for Bitcoin, slated as a future holiday for the crypto community. Bitcoiners around the world were planning to purchase $30 of Bitcoin in celebration of the first country officially adopting a Bitcoin standard. 
What did we get instead?
A fat +20% drop across the board from whales coordinating sell orders, timed in almost perfect synchronization.
There’s a lesson here: the crowd rarely gets what it wants.
If the crowd was always right, everyone would be a wealthy globetrotting billionaire with a supermodel spouse, hanging on a yacht in the Mediterranean. I think we can all accept that this is not presently the case.
What does the crowd expect from Bitcoin in this cycle, and what can we actually expect to see?
The masses seemingly want to see Bitcoin somewhere above $100,000, with an average of all popular predictions at $230,000. If the El Salvador “Bitcoin Day” dump teaches us anything, it’s that most of us are probably going to be surprised at where Bitcoin lands. If this is truly Bitcoin’s most meaningful cycle and our equivalent of the dotcom boom, I expect most of us to be pleasantly surprised by the end price. If the crowd is expecting $230,000, it is extremely unlikely that Bitcoin taps $230,000 and begins to correct. The more likely scenarios are that whales front run $230,000 and it never reaches that price, or that FOMO will kick in harder than we expect, and we blow past $230,000 to much higher targets. I favor the latter.
This leads to another question - who will actually be “the crowd” when Bitcoin performs its final dance of this cycle?
Right now, the crowd is primarily existing Bitcoin enthusiasts who have been here for years, with a steady trickle of new blood. Our community are the ones making the predictions, tracking the charts and analyzing the news cycle.
If the mainstream truly becomes enamored with the asset, they will become the crowd and their predictions and actions will become increasingly meaningful. Ours will become less relevant.
My suggestion to you is to avoid following the crowd off of a cliff. You should continue to listen, as there is some wisdom in the masses and knowing what they expect can help you formulate your own opinion. Do your own research - there is a much higher chance that you are right based on your own thesis, and that your prediction is more solid than that of the emotional masses.
“The one who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The one who walks alone is likely to find himself in places no one else has ever been.” - Albert Einstein
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In This Issue:
  1. The Crowd Rarely Gets What It Wants
  2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
  3. Altcoin Charts
  4. Legacy Markets
  5. Uniswap Is Under SEC Investigation
  6. Stephen Curry Joins FTX
  7. Ethereum To $26K - $35K
  8. Metis - Ethereum Layer 2 Rollups
  9. The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Alex Gladstein
  10. My Recommended Platforms And Tools

Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
MONTHLY CHART
When in doubt, zoom out. For those of you that are new here, I have been sharing this chart for years. You can see that price has been in an ascending channel since 2013, testing the bottom almost to the dollar on the drop in March of 2020. Since then price has risen, and has now flipped the EQ of the channel (the center dashed line AKA the equilibrium) to support. The last 4 monthly candles wicked below this level and closed above. From a technical perspective, a flip of the EQ to support makes the top of the channel the target - easily into 6 figures. Tuesday’s drop is a small blip on this chart.
DAILY CHART
I am not an MA trader. I find them to be lagging indicators. That said, I keep them on my chart when I notice that other people are talking about them. I find it strange that twitter is so quiet about the likely golden cross between the 50 and 200 MAs after going into mass hysterics over the death cross in June (which was near the bottom). Crosses tend to lag price action, a reaction to what has already happened and not what is to come. That said, price is sitting right on the 200 MA, having just tested the 50 as support. If price remains in this area and we have a cross, it could be more compelling since both lines are interacting with price. We will see.
Bollinger Bands are still surprisingly tight on the daily, meaning that Tuesday’s move may not have been the massive volatility predicted by this indicator. As you can see, price found support at the lower band, not breaking down are leading to a major expansion or widening. It is encouraging to see price finding support here without leaving the bands and pushing further down. The vertical lines show the last 3 times band were this tight. Let’s hope for a move back to the top of the bands before volatility kicks in… to the upside.
4-HOUR CHART
As I have mentioned for the past few days, this move bottomed EXACTLY at the range highs from the May crash. This was an epic retest, which was also seen on the ETH/USD pair. For now, price is pushing back into resistance, the blue zone that I have drawn. Again, resistance and support or more zones than lines, so this former demand area is now resistance. We are seeing increasing buying volume, which is encouraging. It remains to be seen whether this forms a clearer bear pennant or flag, but for now it does not look like clear bearish consolidation after the drop. It somewhat looks ready to Bart right back up, but hard to trade on that theory.
Altcoin Charts
I am generally in “wait and see” mode at the moment with altcoins trades. Nothing has changed for investments or longer term positions, but after a major market move like we had on Tuesday, it is generally wise to let the charts reset and give a more clear direction. Paid subscribers can attest to the fact that I post a lot of trades when the conditions are solid.
ALGO/USDT
Buy the dip - if it happens. It may not, which is fine. There’s always another trade. At this point, Layer 1 protocols are taking their turns exploding, and ALGO look like it’s next. I discussed this yesterday on the chart request stream. This is officially in price discovery for new all time highs on the USDT chart, which is what we saw from SOL, ADA and LUNA etc. I am not sure we get a dip to the previous ATH at $1.84, but it’s worth setting bids around that area in case there’s a big wick or flash crash.
Legacy Markets
SIRI (SIRIUS XM)
I have been in Sirius for ages, and have shared some previous ideas. Last time I shared, it went from $6 to $8 in one day on a short squeeze from Wall Street Bets that I predicted.
Not much has changed since, but this continue to make higher lows, consolidating towards resistance at $6.73. Still looking for a candle close above that level to trigger the move, based on the idea of an ascending triangle.
You can also see there is a golden cross happening between the 50 MA and 200 MA, if that is something you look for.
The real entry is the break of $6.73 and retest as support.
Chart Requests
Every Wednesday, I take chart requests from paid subscribers and live stream my thoughts. Your requests are below. Enjoy!
Uniswap Is Under SEC Investigation
How the SEC's reported Uniswap Labs investigation could signal a new era of enforcement
An investigation does not equal guilt. The SEC has refused to comment, but we do know that they are, “seeking information on how Uniswap is used and how the team behind it markets the platform.” Based on what has been made public, we can only assume that they are skeptical and performing due diligence to better understand the model. Uniswap has put out a statement that they are, “committed to complying with the laws and regulations governing our industry and to providing information to regulators that will assist them with any inquiry.” UNI holders and Uniswap users should continue on as usual and wait on more news to surface. Like it or not, the SEC has a strong influence over the space. Just the announcement of the Ripple lawsuit resulted in almost all major exchanges ditching XRP. I am interviewing Hayden Adams, the founder of Uniswap, today for the podcast. I plan to ask him about the investigation and will release the episode as soon as possible. 
Stephen Curry Joins Team FTX
Tom Brady Offers Stephen Curry Cryptocurrency Advice: 'Don’t Laser Eyes!' | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights
FTX’s marketing strategy is targeting the best of the best. They own the naming rights of the Miami arena, partnered with Tom Brady, Trevor Lawrence and Kevin O’Leary, sponsored one of the largest Esports teams in the world, and have now signed a deal with NBA superstar Stephen Curry. The amazing part about FTX’s strategy is the genuine feeling behind each sponsorship. Tom Brady has become an accepted member of the crypto community, Kevin O’Leary has been active in the institutional trenches, and Stephen Curry has shown real interest in NFTs. FTX’s strategy of tapping into the interests of the greats we all respect will work wonders, helping convince newcomers to check out what we have been doing.
Ethereum To $26K - $35K
Institutional investors are bullish on Ethereum, anticipating a $26,000 ETH
Research reports always have been the best source of information in the crypto markets. Standard Chartered, a British multinational, bank put out a 17-page report on Ethereum and it is a stellar read. What caught media attention was their prediction for the future valuation of the asset.
Structurally, we ‘value’ Ethereum at USD $26,000- $35,000.
While potential returns may be greater for ETH than for BTC, risks are also higher.
For this ETH valuation range to be attainable, we assume BTC would also need to trade at the upper end of its valuation range (which we estimate to be $175,000.
$175,000 for Bitcoin seems more than achievable. Hopefully, this does mean a $26,000 valuation for Ethereum. That would be incredible.
$5000 Giveaway!
Scott Melker
I have a YouTube channel and put out free content daily - technical analysis, guests, education, daily livestreams and more.
I am approaching 100,000k subscribers and I want to thank my community and give back. So I am doing a giveaway: 10 prizes of $500 in Bitcoin or Ethereum, amounting to $5,000 when I reach 100K.
If you are already a subscriber - just hit this link. And if you are not a subscriber, subscribe to my channel and click the link under the last video to participate.
Thank you for all of your support! None of what I do would be possible without all of you.
Here is TODAY’S NEWS VIDEO, with the links below on YouTube.
BITCOIN TO $175K, ETHEREUM TO $35K | WHY THIS BANK IS SO BULLISH
Metis - Ethereum Layer 2 Rollups
Home | Metis
As much as I love Ethereum as an investment, the platform is oftentimes slow and expensive to interact with. This doesn’t take away from Ethereum’s greatness, but it can be a hindrance to onboarding the next billion users that are eager to spend, transact, develop, and interact with the network. To solve this issue and achieve a more sustainable, flexible, and efficient system, Metis has created a layer 2 solution built on Ethereum. Transactions on Metis Layer 2 take less than 1 second and cost just a few cents (Polygon transaction cost is about $1, Ethereum can be tens of dollars, and at the moment is ranging into the hundreds).
Metis offers a withdrawal time of a few hours vs. days for other Optimistic Rollups and has inexpensive, native, IPFS-based data storage, something Ethereum can’t offer. Since it is built on Ethereum, it’s fully decentralized in a way centralized commit chains are not. Also, there are no complicated code smart contracts: Metis will provide one-click deployment from their own pre-developed templates. This enables not only blockchain projects to migrate onto their Layer 2 quickly and easily,, but even for Web2 developers with ZERO blockchain experience to benefit from Metis Layer 2.
Metis’s vision is more than just a temporary fix for Ethereum. So many projects are looking to be a temporary solution, so they probably won’t stick around for long. Metis is a hub for the entire Web3 economy, where anyone and everyone can reap the benefits of blockchain without needing to be blockchain experts to do so.
Keep an eye out for their public Testnet release this month and their Mainnet in October.
Check out their Twitter here.
Check out their roadmap here.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Alex Gladstein
Podcast - The Wolf of All Streets
Everyone buys Bitcoin for a different reason, but there is one thing about Bitcoin that we all stand behind - the benefit to humanity. Alex Gladstein, from the Human Rights Foundation, shared why Bitcoin matters for the advancement of financial freedom. For the bulk of humanity that are subject to oppressive regimes, live with tyranny or deal with inflation, Bitcoin is a life raft. As Alex elaborated on in the podcast, Bitcoin is “an escape hatch from tyranny” and “Trojan Horse for freedom” - Bitcoin is our treasure.
Alex Gladstein and I discussed:
  • Bitcoin is for freedom
  • Do I save or spend my Bitcoin?
  • Trickle-down Bitcoin economics
  • Personal and geopolitical Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin mining and governments
  • Bitcoin in Afghanistan
  • Bitcoin fixes this
  • Are CBDCs good?
  • Where do stablecoins fit in?
  • Accessing the dollar
  • Evolving monetary systems
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My Recommended Platforms And Tools
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I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
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Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” an investment.
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