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Investors Therapy #11: Be careful out there


Investors Therapy

September 28 · Issue #11 · View online

Investors Therapy is a newsletter, from the Silicon Valley Investors Club (, that helps investors understand their psychology so they can make smarter investment decisions. If you're ready to take the next step in your investment journey, subscribe!

Hey Tribe,
Looks like most investors are sitting on piles of cash and are dying to roll the dice on markets. We are now seeing too much cash chasing too few deals be it in real estate, stocks, startups, or private equity, which is driving down returns for most investors.
Things that are concerning me:
Are we headed for an immediate recession? No. But should we start focusing more on the risk aspect of the risk/return trade-off? Yes.
To paraphrase Howard Marks, markets tend to swing between two extremes: euphoria and depression. We are way past our depression phase (where most of the money is made), and now we are creeping towards the euphoria phase (where most of the money is lost).
So shall we sell our positions and sit on our hands? Nope. Let your winners ride. Can we still deploy capital? Yes, but make sure you are clear on why you are deploying capital in order to protect yourself from the down side.
PS - Recently we launched a Silicon Valley Investors Club, so we can talk all things investing. Feel free to join our group!

FYI: The US doesn't have an extradition treaty with Mars.
FYI: The US doesn't have an extradition treaty with Mars.
Investor Psychology
Undervalued Financial Advice
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Fed raises U.S. interest rates, sees at least three more years of growth | Reuters
U.S. consumer confidence races to near 18-year high | Reuters
Why Do Debt Crises Come in Cycles?
Watch out for the yield curve
Real Estate
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2018 | UBS Global topics
In Apple’s hometown of Cupertino, a debate over the fate of an old mall epitomizes Silicon Valley’s class divide - Recode
Pending home sales fall 1.8 percent to slowest pace since January
Miami is still the worst city for renters in the U.S. | Miami Herald
Elizabeth Warren proposes bill to fix housing crisis - Curbed
6 ways buyers have changed since the housing bubble | Sacramento Appraisal Blog | Real Estate Appraiser
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Careers, Society, and Personal Development
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Drivers for Uber, Lyft are earning less than half of what they did four years ago, study finds - MarketWatch
Dalio on Turkey, Argentina, and the Next Economic Downturn - YouTube
When The Dutch Ruled The World: Rise and Fall of the Dutch East India Company - YouTube
“Skin in the Game” - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Speech At RPI's Media & War Conference - YouTube
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