The minimum wage in place for drivers isn’t a “traditional” minimum wage. It’s a bit of an experiment
on a new way to regulate the number of ridehail vehicles without putting a hard cap a la Taxi Medallions into place.
The minimum wage experiment forces gig-companies to pay their drivers at least minimum wage whenever they don’t make that amount on their own with fares. This means that gig-companies end up paying a sort of “labor inefficiency” tax to drivers. The theory is that by doing this, gig-companies are incentivized to have enough drivers to be efficient but not so many that the roads become saturated.
Before this law, it didn’t matter to gig-companies if there were 10,000 or 40,000 drivers on the road as long as they gave rides and stuck around. So there was a ton of driver supply and that allowed gig-companies to enjoy the splendor of their network effects with very little cost even though drivers made less than minimum wage. Now that Uber, Lyft, Juno, and Via are forced to abide by utilization standards, they have to shrink their fleets to a size where their drivers make more than minimum wage; lest they want to pay extra.
So yes, it makes sense that the number of rides will go down and the prices will go up when rides are no longer being subsidized by people making less than minimum wage.