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The most CRUCIAL week for crypto is HERE! + $500m of stocks sold to buy Bitcoin!

Good Morning Crypto
Good Morning Crypto (12.09.2022)

  • Will the Merge be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event? 
  • Bitcoin pumps spectacularly 
  • Vitalik makes a surprise appearance. 
  • Guess who’s buying more Bitcoin? 
Good morning Banter Fam,
The Ethereum Merge is right around the corner, and with it comes a significant degree of attention from speculators who want to make profits. So, what’s the best way to prepare? 
How about we dive into the data and try to spot an edge.
The Merge: “A buy the rumor, sell the news” event? Part 2 of 2.
Part 1 is available here.
Probability of a successful merge.
To help us find the probability of a successful merge, we can look at the price of the ETH-POW token as a hedge against failure. The current price of the ETH-POW token is $25.65. So with the price of ETH currently at $1,765.00, the equation goes as follows:
$25.65 ETH-POW / $1765.00 ETH = 0.016 or 1.6%.
  • The market is pricing a 1.6% probability that The Merge is a failure.
  • In turn, the market is pricing a 98.4% probability the Ethereum Merge is successful. Not too shabby. 
So, to the moon, correct? Well, not so fast. Many other factors will affect the price:
Price action is very unpredictable in the short term. The Merge will be no different. Therefore, it is best not to try and guess what will happen, but to be ready for various outcomes. The positive contributing factors are strong, and hodling ETH through volatility is likely the best and easiest choice.
The possibility of a significant “sell the news” event appears low because of all the positive fundamentals.
BUT, suppose professional investors pump the price of ETH pre-merge, the likelihood of a sell-off increases. So it might be worth taking some partial profits >$2,200.
If the Merge happens to be delayed and price drops substantially, it could prove to be a good entry point <$1200.
Good luck out there!
Market update 🌍
Major macro events this week:
  • US Inflation Rate YoY 8:30 pm EST Tuesday
  • US Core Inflation Rate YoY 8:30 am EST Tuesday
  • CPI 8:30am EST Tuesday
  • PPI MoM 8:30am EST Wednesday
Despite Tuesday’s 5.07% sell-off in BTC, the price recovered substantially after a rejection of the $19k support. The 10% gain BTC posted on Friday is the largest daily increase since late February.
Looking at the weekly chart shows BTC is not out of the woods. A test of the downtrend resistance (red) and $25k resistance seems likely in the next few weeks. Rejections of these resistance levels could push the BTC price down to retest the $19k support level (pink). BTC completed the weekly candle up +8.71% to $21,1625.
High-resolution chart
With the Merge a mere 2-3 days away, Ether’s price has showcased two solid weeks of 20% combined gains. With all the hype and momentum surrounding the event, ETH looks probable to reach the $1,920 resistance level (pink), which lines up with the downward trend resistance (red). ETH would have to break through these key levels to end the downtrend that began in November 2021. ETH closed the weekly candle up 10.70% to $1,750.
High-resolution chart
Newswatch 📰
Vitalik makes a surprise visit to Ukraine. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin made a surprise appearance at the Kyiv Tech Summit on Saturday to show support for Ukraine. The three-day tech event included Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister for IT Development, 30 tech experts, and an estimated 500 hackers that focused on improving digital technology for the war effort. 
Wu Blockchain
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin surprised attendees at the Kyiv Tech Summit yesterday to show support: "let Ukraine know that lots of people in the Blockchain, Ethereum, crypto world really care about you guys and lots of people support you." CoinDesk
$500m more. Microstrategy filed a sales agreement with the SEC to sell $500m of their stock to Cowen and Company LLC to purchase additional bitcoin. The firm currently holds 129,699 BTC worth $3.977 billion, with an aggregated loss of $1 billion.  
SEC plans crypto office to address growing filings. The Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is looking to create a new office for handling crypto-related filings. The new office will be named the “Office of Crypto Filings.”
News tidbits:
  • Curve Finance and Frax Finance are now using Llamapay.
  • Dopex introduces Bridgoors Bonding Program.
  • Kujira: What to expect when USK launches.
NFT & metaverse update 🐵
  • Asian Banking Giant DBS to purchase digital land in The Sandbox.
Banter’s take
Are you prepared for a hectic week?
The Core Inflation Rate and the PPI data are scheduled to be released this week. As the markets remain dependent on macro, the release could hold the utmost importance for direction. Moreover, the Federal Reserve (FED) will also be closely monitoring the results for guidance pertaining to rate hikes.
Oh, and let’s not forget about the Merge. According to Google, there are less than three days until this major crypto event. So yes, even Google has added a nifty countdown to the Merge. Pretty sweet. 
Needless to say, the market will be experiencing some turbulence. So strap in, keep your tray tables up, and be prepared for anything!
Follow me on Twitter for daily updates!
Good Morning crypto (issued by Crypto Banter) is a newsletter for entertainment purposes only.
All opinions expressed by the publisher, writers, and chartists should not be construed as financial advice and do not necessarily reflect the views of Crypto Banter. The publisher, writers, and chartists may hold positions in the tokens and assets discussed. Readers are encouraged to do their own research.
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